Category: 7-Day Outlook

Jan 09

Busy Weather Week; Ice Storm Potential Friday Into The Weekend…

screen-shot-2017-01-09-at-7-26-23-amHighlights:

  • Late night light freezing rain develops
  • Milder and wet through mid week
  • Ice storm potential on the rise late week

Feeling Downright Balmy Out…Temperatures this morning (writing this at 7a) are running close to 20 degrees above where we were this exact time Sunday.  20 degrees has never felt so warm!  🙂  This moderating trend will continue into mid week, including temperatures that approach 60 Thursday.  That said, we have a mini “speed bump” to go over tonight and that’s the opportunity for light freezing rain late tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  Temperatures should go above freezing just before the morning rush Tuesday, but plan to leave additional time as slick spots may remain.  Once we clear the “speed bump,” it’s off to the races in the temperature department through mid week: around 50 Tuesday afternoon and around 60 by Thursday (that’s a late night high Wednesday in the upper 50s).  Periods of showers will come with the milder air, centered on Tuesday and late Wednesday into Thursday.

Unfortunately, the milder times don’t last long and we still forecast “trouble” late in the week.  The set-up remains unchanged as a big, sprawling arctic high pushes into Wisconsin Friday.  This will help “shove” the arctic front through Indiana before stalling along the Ohio River Friday into Saturday.  As this is happening, ripples of energy will help ignite periods of precipitation Friday into the weekend.  With cold air locked in at the surface, we expect the potential of a rather prolonged period of freezing rain developing late Friday and continuing into the weekend.  We still have time for things to change, but from this distance, the predominant precipitation type, unfortunately, appears to be freezing rain.  Stay tuned as this could be a high impact event.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  0.00″
  • Rainfall:  1.50″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-weather-week-ice-storm-potential-friday-into-the-weekend/

Jan 08

Changeable Weather; Late Week Ice Threat…

screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-10-01-49-amHighlights:

  • Another bitter day
  • Moderating temperatures ahead
  • Late week ice threat looms

Bitter Cold Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures…The first half of the forecast period is easy, but we caution big time headaches loom and details are far from etched in stone once to the second half of this forecast period.

First thing’s first and that’s today.  Look for a continuation of bitterly cold air, but slow moderation will be noted this afternoon: Not AS bitter and lighter winds.  We may even crack the 20 degree mark!  I know, break out the swim suits, right?!  This moderating trend is setting the tone for a more significant jump in the mercury later in the week.  Before a “taste of spring” arrives, we’ll have to deal with a brief opportunity for freezing drizzle Monday evening.  Temperatures will zoom to around 50 Tuesday and around 60 for mid week.  Showers will be with us off and on- focused on Tuesday and Thursday for most widespread coverage.

Then comes the “fun.”  A strong, sprawling arctic high will push south into the northern Plains Friday.  At the same time, “resistance” from the southeast ridge (that can be thanked for the spring-like feel here Wednesday and Thursday) will result in the arctic front only slowly being able to push south.  Ripples of energy, or waves of low pressure, will move along the arctic boundary and result in periods of widespread precipitation Friday into the weekend.  As the cold, dense arctic air oozes south, we have concern for icing- freezing rain and sleet Friday into Saturday.  Depending on how things evolve, this may continue into Sunday, as well.  If you have travel plans this weekend, please keep a close eye on the developments in the forecast from Friday on.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1.00″

Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changeable-weather-late-week-ice-threat/

Jan 06

Bitter Weekend; Changeable Weather Next Week…

screen-shot-2017-01-06-at-6-33-47-pmHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold weekend
  • Big shift in temperatures next week
  • Icy set-up late next week?

Heavy Winter Gear Required…We’ll watch a significant winter storm impact the southern states this weekend with heavy snow and ice accumulations.  Here on the home-front, expect bitterly cold conditions with dry skies.  Clouds tonight should keep most areas around zero.  That’s frigid in and of itself, but should skies clear, temperatures will easily fall below zero.  Very cold conditions remain Sunday.

We’ll back our air flow around to the southwest early next week and this will help give temperatures a big boost by the mid week period.  Gusty southwest winds and showers will be with us, as well.

A complex weather pattern will set up to close out the week.  The clash of air masses between a sprawling strong arctic high and an equally impressive southeast ridge will be fun to watch, but not to forecast.  It’s very possible unseasonably warm conditions of Thursday give way to much colder weather going into next weekend as the arctic high helps “ooze” dense, shallow, cold air south.  At the same time, waves of low pressure will move along the pressing arctic front and periods of heavy precipitation will result.  Conditions should grow cold enough by Friday into Saturday for the precipitation to fall as an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain across portions of central Indiana.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Trace
  • Rainfall:  1.50″ – 2.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-weekend-changeable-weather-next-week/

Jan 05

Snow Intensifies Again Early Afternoon; Turning Much Colder…

screen-shot-2017-01-05-at-9-24-44-amHighlights:

  • Snow intensifies for a period this afternoon
  • Bitterly cold weekend ahead
  • Moderating trend early next week

Snowy Thursday…Light snow developed during the predawn hours and made for a slick morning commute across central Indiana.   We note a steadier band of snow currently falling south of the city for places like Bedford, Columbus, and Seymour as of this update (9:30a).  As additional energy pushes across the state late morning into the afternoon, look for snow to expand in coverage and intensity for a time across more of central Indiana around lunchtime into the early afternoon before sliding off to the east.  Our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:

1517snowfallmap

Conditions will remain bitterly cold (most of today is spent in the 10s), and with even the slightest bit of snow cover, conditions will turn even more frigid to end the week.  Area-wide single digits can be expected to begin the day Friday (Saturday and Sunday, as well) with wind chills below zero.  Dry conditions return this weekend.  We’ll watch as our friends to the south enjoy a winter storm from Alabama, northern GA, into the Carolinas.

Moderating temperatures return early next week and as the warm advection begins Monday, it could help produce a wintry mix by evening before precipitation transitions to rain Tuesday, along with a breezy SW wind.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-intensifies-again-early-afternoon-turning-much-colder/

Jan 03

Bitterly Cold Air Returns…

screen-shot-2017-01-03-at-4-31-46-pmHighlights:

  • Turning much colder tonight
  • Light snow Thursday
  • Bitterly cold, but dry weekend

The Ice Box Returns…An arctic cold front will sweep through the state tonight and help usher in a drastically colder feel as we progress through the middle and latter parts of the week.  Left over rain showers this evening may end as a couple of snow flurries before precipitation comes to an end.  Winds will really increase tonight behind the cold front, gusting between 30 and 40 MPH.  This will lead to single digit wind chill values out the door Wednesday morning.

Our next weather disturbance arrives Thursday morning and will help spread light snow across the southern half of the state.  Snow will continue into the early afternoon before departing off to the east.  Light accumulations (around 1″) will be possible, especially from Indianapolis and points south.  We’ll keep an eye on fresh data coming into the forecast office tonight and update if need be.

Otherwise, the big story going into the weekend will be the return of bitterly cold air.  In fact, overnight lows will drop into the single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Dress warmly if you have plans to be outside for any length of time.

Our air flow will back around to the southwest early next week and temperatures will begin to moderate.  Moisture may make it to the surface to create a little spotty freezing drizzle Monday evening before temperatures sky-rocket to around 50 Tuesday as showers return.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitterly-cold-air-returns/