Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

One More Mild Day; Old Man Winter Is Knocking On The Door…

Screen Shot 2017-01-24 at 9.49.46 PMHighlights:

  • Hold on to your hats
  • Cold air returns
  • Extended period of scattered snow showers; squall potential

Changes Brewing…Wednesday will feature more of the same mild weather we’ve come to know and enjoy across the Mid West over the past couple of weeks.  Despite the mild air, a storm system will result in scattered showers for our hump day, along with very windy conditions.  Gusts of 40 MPH will be common across central IN.

Temperatures will fall late Wednesday and Old Man Winter is set to make up for lost time as we progress through the back half of the work week and on into the weekend.  In addition, fast-moving upper level energy will push southeast in the active northwest flow aloft.  Scattered snow showers will result, along with localized embedded heavier squalls.  It certainly won’t snow the entire time, but passing snow showers will be a good bet from time to time Thursday through Sunday.

Our wintry pattern will relax briefly early next week, but renewed cold air appears poised to blow into town the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″ (local 2″ amounts possible)
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
1 Comment 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Foggy Start; Winter Returns…

Screen Shot 2017-01-23 at 7.15.25 AMHighlights:

  • Dense fog this morning
  • Turning much colder this week
  • Scattered snow showers late week

Low Beams On…Dense fog engulfs most of central IN this morning.  Make sure you have the low beams on this morning as you head off to work and school and allow extra time.  A shower is possible at any point today, but particularly across the eastern half of the state.

Our next storm system will push through mid week.  Southwest winds will increase Wednesday and scattered showers will accompany a cold front moving through the state.  Temperatures will fall Wednesday night into Thursday and scattered snow showers will develop.

The theme late in the week and for the weekend will be a wintry one.  Upper level energy will interact with the colder conditions and result in scattered snow showers from time to time into the weekend.  The active northwest flow will remain into next week, as well, and we’ll have to keep a close eye for the prospects of a more “robust” clipper impacting the region just beyond this forecast period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Spring-Like Weekend, But Changes Loom…

Screen Shot 2017-01-20 at 10.25.29 PMHighlights:

  • Spring-like weekend
  • Unsettled times continue
  • Winter returns

Rare January White Leg Alert…The big news this weekend will be temperatures close to 30 degrees above normal and a legitimate spring feel.  Average highs across central IN this time of year are in the middle 30s and temperatures this afternoon will zoom to the lower-middle 60s.  Patchy morning fog and drizzle will be with us, but we’re remaining optimistic we could squeeze a couple of looks at the sun during the day.  Count yourself lucky if you do, indeed, see that weird giant bright thing in the sky! 😉

A developing storm system will track east across the central Plains and into the TN Valley this weekend.  This will result in a significant severe weather outbreak across the south and increasing rain chances here for the back half of the weekend.  The magnitude of the rain and potential embedded storms remains in question, but shower chances will at least be on the increase Sunday afternoon into the evening.  We note short-term, higher resolution modeling hitting the locally heavy rain threat harder than global data early this morning (centered on Sunday evening) and we’ll keep a close eye on things as most central IN communities remain waterlogged.  Winds will increase Monday- NE shifting to the N and gusts to 40 MPH with leftover showers continuing.

Tuesday will present a bit of a break in our active pattern before a fast-moving cold front blows into town Wednesday with scattered showers amidst blustery conditions.

We turn colder (you knew this incredibly mild pattern had to break at some point) late week and upper level energy will help ignite snow showers with the return of the wintry feel Thursday into Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Models, January Thaw, Rain, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Warm, But Unsettled Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-16 at 7.26.31 AMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm week
  • Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
  • Eyeing winter’s return next week

Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.

Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall.  Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday.  After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.

We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday.  🙂  Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.

The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night.  Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.

Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department.  Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_20172.)  Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much.  They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.

hrrr_ref_indy_183.)  More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.  This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.

hires_ref_indy_37

hires_ref_indy_404.)  A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week.  Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast.  We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s).  Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.

SW Flow

D75.)  The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period.  It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

 

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Unseasonably Warm, Winter thoughts...