Category: 7-Day Outlook

Jan 16

Warm, But Unsettled Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-16 at 7.26.31 AMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm week
  • Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
  • Eyeing winter’s return next week

Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.

Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall.  Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday.  After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.

We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday.  🙂  Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.

The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night.  Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.

Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-but-unsettled-week/

Jan 15

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department.  Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_20172.)  Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much.  They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.

hrrr_ref_indy_183.)  More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.  This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.

hires_ref_indy_37

hires_ref_indy_404.)  A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week.  Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast.  We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s).  Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.

SW Flow

D75.)  The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period.  It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-rambles-2/

Jan 14

January Thaw For The New Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2017-01-14 at 4.13.32 PMHighlights:

  • Damp, chilly Sunday
  • Milder week ahead
  • Spring-preview late next week

Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s).  Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north.  Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.

While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions.  Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.

We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week.  Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions.  (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).

The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend.  In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday.  Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place.  We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.

Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February.  Winter is far from over…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-thaw-for-the-new-week-ahead/

Jan 12

Weekend Ice And Heavy Rain Next Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-12 at 7.08.19 AM

Highlights:

  • Turning colder
  • Freezing rain develops Friday night
  • Wet times continue

Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet.  By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts.  Lets time it out.

The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in.  Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours).  We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening.  Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week.  At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night.  We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning.  As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend.  We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain.  Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning.  We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.

We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow.  Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times.  In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday.  By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.

Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  2.50″ – 3.00″ 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-ice-and-heavy-rain-next-week/

Jan 10

Prolonged Stretch Of Gloomy Weather…

screen-shot-2017-01-10-at-7-25-16-amHighlights:

  • Active stretch of weather begins
  • Moderating trend into midweek
  • Ice concerns Friday-Saturday

Sunglasses NOT Required…We’re entering the beginning of an active stretch of weather, with an extended period of overcast skies and gloomy conditions.  Let’s dive in and take the challenges one-by-one:

Showers develop this afternoon as a cold front moves into the state.  Ahead of the front, strong southwest winds will gust upwards of 45 MPH+.  A “big hair warning” is in effect.  🙂

A brief shot of colder air will arrive late tonight into Wednesday, but just as soon as it arrives, it’ll leave and temperatures will approach 60 Wednesday night as showers return.

Thursday will be a wet day with periods of rain and slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon/ evening.

Friday is much colder as the arctic front will be to our south, but most of the day looks dry.  Moisture will lift north Friday afternoon and evening and with cold air in place, the precipitation should take the form of a mixture of freezing rain and sleet.  Periods of freezing rain likely continue Saturday.  It’s far too early to discuss amounts and we also want to reiterate the difference of 1-2 degrees will mean a world of difference between areas dealing with ice versus a cold rain.  The “battle zone” looks to take place across central IN.  If you have travel plans Friday night and Saturday, please keep abreast of later forecasts and updates.

Regardless of whether or not we’re dealing with icy conditions across central IN during the first half of the weekend, temperatures will warm during the second half of the weekend and change any frozen/ freezing precipitation over to plain ole cold rain Sunday into Monday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/prolonged-stretch-of-gloomy-weather/