The 7-day period will be dominated by an eastern ridge while a trough carves itself into the inner-mountain West.
Below normal temperatures will take up shop across the inner-mountain West and spread throughout the south. Meanwhile, anomalous warmth will prevail across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and into the Northeast, and Mid Atlantic.
Tropical moisture will lead to well above normal rainfall across the Southeast and into southern Appalachia.
We forecast on average between 0.50″ and 1.00″ of rain across central Indiana during the week ahead.
Forecast Period: 08.15.21 through 08.22.21
The past 36 hours has provided a nice change of pace as of late with lower humidity and cooler temperatures. (Several reporting sites across northern Indiana are in the lower 50s this morning with middle 50s as far south as the Indianapolis suburbs). As we look to start the new week, humidity will be on the increase along with a daily chance of scattered thunderstorms beginning as early as Monday, continuing Tuesday. We will try and inject briefly drier air in here Wednesday which should reduce coverage of “splash and dash” storms before scattered storms return to close the week. As we look ahead to Saturday, better storm coverage is expected as a cold front moves through the region.
A couple of other items of interest on a broader scale include the first snow of the young season falling across the northern Rockies this week, as an early shot of winter-like air descends south from Canada. Also, from a tropical perspective, we’ll keep close eyes on what comes of Fred and Grace. As it sits today, we still don’t anticipate impacts here in central Indiana from either systems.
The predominant upper air pattern this week will feature “troughiness” centered in the Ohio Valley with ridging across the PAC NW.
Below normal temperatures will be found from the southern Plains east and northeast (greatest departures from normal across the MO and western OH Valley region) as we progress through the first week of August.
Wetter than normal times can be expected across the Gulf Coast and up the eastern seaboard, along with the inner-mountain region.
We only expect central IN area rain gauges to accumulate between 0.10″ and 0.20″ on average over the upcoming period.
Forecast Period: 08.01.21 through 08.08.21
A secondary cold front will slip through the state this afternoon and may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but “isolated” is the key word. Most will stay rain free in the upcoming week as high pressure dominates. This will be a quieter start to August than is typical, and also much cooler and less humid than we’d expect. In fact, multiple nights this week will feature low temperatures falling into the mid and upper 50s, especially outside of the city, itself. Out next best chance of organized showers and thunderstorms can be expected next Sunday. Enjoy the unusually quiet, cool, and dry weather. We’ll moderate (and turn more active) as we head into Week 2…
The ‘mean’ upper air pattern will feature a persistent trough over New England with a ridge (hot dome) across the central Plains in the upcoming 7-day period.
Well above normal temperatures will be anchored across the central Plains and points north and west through the upcoming week. New England will feature below normal temperatures. After a hot start to the week, temperatures will cool late week, locally.
Above normal rainfall can be expected across the Great Lakes region into New England.
In general, we forecast between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain in the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts.
Forecast Period: 07.24.21 through 07.31.21
The upcoming 7-day period will place the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in a northwest flow aloft. This is a notorious pattern for “ridge riding” thunderstorms to roll right into the general region (and sometimes during the hours not typical for storms this time of year – overnight and early morning). While it’s impossible to say exactly when and where these potential storm clusters may track, we’ll keep a watchful eye on the short term period through midweek across our general area. Sometimes these storm clusters are capable of more widespread damaging wind. While the most persistent, serious heat will be well off to our northwest, we can expect a few hot days to open the forecast period (low 90s) before we cool significantly late next week and into next weekend.
The upper pattern over the upcoming 7-days will feature a persistent ridge across the West with a trough across the East, tailing back into the South.
It’s a tale of 2 different stories this week from a temperature standpoint: cooler than normal across the East into the southern Plains while heat bakes the northern Plains.
The active pattern will take at least somewhat of a breather to open the new week, locally. The heavy rain/ active storm track will shift south and impact the TN Valley/ Deep South. Wetter than normal conditions are also noted across New England, and monsoonal moisture will plague the Four Corners.
Most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate between 0.25″ and 0.75″ of rain in the upcoming 7-day period.
Forecast Period: 07.18.21 through 07.24.21
We’ll finally see a period to dry things out to open up the new week. That’s a good thing as we’re running a whopping 3.7″ above normal, month-to-date. High pressure will supply increasing sunshine and eliminate rain chances from our forecast today through Tuesday. Our next opportunity of showers and thunderstorms will come Wednesday as a frontal system scoots through the area. We’ll then get back into a more active stretch as a northwest flow aloft offers up the chance of southeast moving storm clusters to impact our weekend plans. We’ll need to monitor things as we get closer. In addition to a heavy rain threat, this kind of upper pattern has been known to support storm clusters that can also pack strong winds on the leading edge. The other big story this week will be a continued lack of heat. Before we get back to stormy times, the Sunday through Tuesday stretch will truly feature “chamber of commerce” type weather by late-July standards. Get out there and enjoy!
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