Category: 7-Day Outlook
Highlights:
- Freezing drizzle to start the day
- Watching another storm system Tuesday
- Mild and windy close to the week
Messy Monday Morning Commute; Watching Tuesday…After the snowy Valentine’s Day across the region, we’re concerned freezing drizzle will develop and add to what already will be a slick commute in spots overnight and Monday morning. Allow extra drive time and take it slow.
Attention will quickly shift to Tuesday as a vigorous piece of upper level energy dives southeast. We have to fine tune the track later Monday, but this has the potential to spread a swath of accumulating snow over portions of the state Tuesday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned.
We turn windy, but much milder to wrap up the work week. Friday and most of the weekend will feature a taste of spring as a strong SW flow takes hold and helps pump well above normal temperatures into the area. Don’t get used to the mild air, as cold will return to wrap up Feb and head into March.
Interested in our consulting services? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/14/messy-monday-morning-commute-watching-tuesday/
Highlights:
- Bitterly cold
- Light accumulating snow Sunday
- Active pattern continues, but with questions
Bitterly Cold; Accumulating Sunday Snow…We label the cold that we’ll deal with Saturday “hurt your face” cold. It’ll be a bitter day with lows in the lower-mid single digits (even some areas below zero), a biting NW wind, and AM lake-generated snow streamers across eastern portions of the state. Bundle up, friends!
We still track accumulating snow for Valentine’s Day. Clouds will lower and thicken Sunday morning and snow should overspread the area as we progress into the late morning hours. The potential of a plowable snow still looks good from this distance, and we’ll have our initial snowfall map out later Saturday (want to get a look at the full 00z suite before issuing).
Right on the heels of Sunday’s snow maker will be another disturbance Tuesday. Modeling differs on the track (surprise, surprise ;-)), but the potential is there for additional accumulating snows Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay tuned.
After a final disturbance Wednesday (with light snow potential), we’ll see a marked wind shift to the south to close the week, followed by a brief, but impressive, surge of milder air.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/12/bitterly-cold-accumulating-sunday-snow/
Highlights:
- Scattered snow showers continue
- Reinforcing arctic air arrives Friday-Saturday
- Winter storm brewing for some Sunday-Monday
- Moderating temperatures next week
Very Cold; Eyes On Sunday-Monday…We’ve been dealing with snow showers for over 48 hours. As expected, accumulations haven’t been uniform, but range, on average, from 1″ to 3″ across central IN. Morning snow showers continue before drier air will invade from the west and shut the snow production off this afternoon.
Tomorrow will be a dry, cold day before arctic reinforcements arrive Friday into Saturday. Snow showers will accompany the arctic express to close the work week.
Saturday looks brutal. Very cold and windy with below zero wind chills most of the day.
Focus continues on Sunday and Monday and we forecast snow to overspread the area late Sunday night, continuing into Monday. It’s still early, but this may be a “more important” event, locally. This will actually come on the “tail end” of the arctic air mass that will have engulfed the region over a week by that point. We think next week is much milder before we reload the cold to close February and head into March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/10/very-cold-eyes-on-sunday-monday/
Highlights:
- Embedded Tuesday squalls!
- Fast moving NW flow!
- Bigger winter threat to close the week and again late weekend?
Busy, Cold Winter Pattern…The short term will continue to be dominated by a slow moving upper low over the region. Individual “spokes” (disturbances) of energy will rotate around the upper low and provide enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls through Tuesday night. As promised, there will be “haves” and “have nots” with this system and, in general, we still like the idea of most folks in the 1″-3″ range with a few isolated heavier totals.
This is a challenging northwest flow and can wreck havoc on the timing front. Our best idea right now takes a disturbance southeast Wednesday, but this should remain a touch too far west to prevent much more than our southwest tier counties from seeing much, if any, snow.
A stronger clipper may deliver accumulating snow to wrap up the work week and then we also have our late weekend winter event to fine tune. Get the idea we’re locked into a busy time of things? 🙂
Interested in our detailed consulting services? E-mail bill@indywx.com for further details.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/08/busy-cold-winter-pattern/
Highlights:
- Long duration snow shower event
- Heavier snow squalls possible Monday night-Tuesday morning
- Another push of snow late week
- Bigger winter storm potential at the end of the period
Long Duration Snow Shower Event…A cold front will move through the area late tonight and may be accompanied by a shower or sprinkle as it moves through the region. Colder air will filter in behind the boundary after midnight and snow showers will begin to blossom Monday morning. This will be the beginning of a solid 48-60 hours of snow falling across most of central IN. We think heavier snow bursts and embedded squalls are a good bet Monday night into Tuesday morning as the true arctic air begins to push into the area. With so much upper level energy around, snow showers will continue into Wednesday.
As far as accumulation goes, we think the majority of central Indiana will accumulate 2″-3″ during the early week event, but this won’t be a uniform snow at all (there will be “haves” and “have nots”). Locally, there will also be a few 4″ reports.
Though timing is a challenge in this fast, active northwest flow, we think we’ll be dry and cold Thursday before snow returns to close the work week as another disturbance and reinforcing arctic air move south.
Well below normal cold remains entrenched across the region for Valentine’s weekend, and we note wintry “fun and games” brewing to our west Saturday night into Sunday. We’ll forecast a lowering and thickening cloud deck here Sunday with snow developing during the afternoon and evening. Early indications continue to suggest this could be a storm of “importance” around these parts… Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/07/long-duration-snow-shower-event-hope-you-like-winter/
1.) Be sure to get outside and enjoy today! We’ll take sunshine this time of year any how we can get it! Big changes loom moving forward. While Super Bowl…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/06/saturday-afternoon-rambles/
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/05/friday-evening-video-update-4/
Highlights:
- Nice close to the work week
- Enjoy a mild weekend
- Much colder next week with snow
Not A Bad Weekend; Winter Returns Next Week…Weak ridging will be with us as we close out the work week. This will supply a very nice Friday, after some freezing fog concerns in spots early.
The upcoming weekend will feature a weak weather maker scooting through here Saturday and that could have just enough “umph” to produce a flurry or sprinkle. Otherwise, look for mild weather for Super Bowl weekend. Enjoy it!
A cold front will push through the region late Sunday. A band of moisture will likely accompany this front- rain to snow type deal. As we move into early and mid next week, the weather pattern will be dominated by strong western ridging and a significant eastern trough. Models will likely continue to struggle handling the specifics concerning timing and strength with the individual disturbances and we’ll have to keep a close eye on early to mid next week moving forward. As it stands now, we think most widespread snow showers/ squalls come Monday into Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/04/not-a-bad-weekend-winter-returns-next-week/
Highlights:
- Strong to severe storms this evening
- Rain and snow showers Wednesday
- Dry and chilly to wrap up the work week
- Nice weekend ahead
- MUCH colder next week
Stormy Evening…Tuesday is dawning nice and quiet with dry and chilly conditions in place. A bit of fog has been reported just west and north of the city. The quiet times will give way to a bumpy ride by this evening as a warm front passes, allowing a strong SW breeze to boost temperatures close to 60 (after dark high).
Scattered showers will develop this afternoon, but it’s the evening hours that we bracket (between 4-10p west to east) for the potential of strong to severe storms. Some of these storms will be capable of damaging winds, and even a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out. Have a way to get the latest weather information this evening.
We turn cooler Wednesday with lingering moisture falling in the form of mixed rain and snow showers. This won’t be a big deal.
Dry times will be with us to end the week and rumble into the Super Bowl weekend, with moderating temperatures. The moderating trend won’t last long as models continue to suggest an arctic blast looms next week. To go along with that cold, snow chances will also come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/02/stormy-evening/
-
Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy
-
February 1, 2016
Highlights:
- Morning fog in spots
- Strong Tuesday storms
- Mid week snow showers
- Quiet end to the week
Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday Afternoon-Evening…Today is a day in between storm systems. We’ll deal with morning fog in spots (some freezing fog is being reported north and northwest of Indy this morning) and mostly cloudy skies. It’ll be colder when compared to the weekend, but still warmer than average.
All eyes for this forecast package remain locked on Tuesday. It’s still shaping up to be an active day, with strong to severe thunderstorms likely. We bracket 3p-11p for the most likely time frame of thunderstorms across central IN. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but caution a few embedded cells will be capable of producing a tornado.
Things turn much colder Wednesday and with lingering moisture, a few snow showers will be a good bet.
We turn much quieter to wrap up the week and head into Super Bowl Sunday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/strong-to-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/
