Persistent ridges will remain in place along both the East and West Coast with a persistent trough in the central through the upcoming 7-day period.
The cooler anomalies in the central will be mostly associated with lower than average daytime maxes (due to the unsettled weather). Hot weather will remain in place across the West.
Above normal precipitation can be expected through the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast through the course of the upcoming 7-days.
We forecast widespread 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals across central Indiana through the upcoming 7-day period with locally heavier amounts.
Forecast Period: 07.11.21 through 07.18.21
A persistent and rather stagnant upper pattern will remain in place through the upcoming 7-day forecast period. A cut off upper low that will be responsible for our unsettled conditions to open the work week will lose it’s influence on our weather as it gets absorbed in the westerlies by midweek. This will result in coverage of showers/ storms going from “numerous” (now through Tuesday) to “isolated” Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t get used to the drier trend though as a new trough will settle into the Plains during the 2nd half of the week, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms yet again Friday through next weekend. With such a rich, tropical airmass in place, the threat of localized flash flooding will remain high.
Drier and cooler air will be with us to close out the work week, but changes are on the horizon just in time for the weekend.
It still appears as if we will deal with a couple rounds of more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. The first complex will likely impact central and southern Indiana Saturday morning (bracketing the hours of 8a to noon west to east for round 1).
High resolution guidance then delivers a 2nd round of showers and thunderstorms into the state during the late afternoon and evening hours.
A moist southerly flow will continue to impact the region into early next week, keeping periods of scattered showers and embedded thunder in our forecast Sunday through Tuesday (most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours).
While we can’t completely rule out rain Wednesday, coverage should be less compared to what we’ll see in the short-term period. Rain and storm coverage will then ramp back up the 2nd half of the week into next weekend. All in all, it’s a very active pattern that will undoubtedly produce localized flash flooding across portions of the region.
7-day precipitation anomalies
We forecast 7-day rainfall totals between 2.5″ and 3.5″ with locally heavier amounts.
Looking ahead, all indications continue to point towards above normal rainfall as we progress through the latter part of July. As has also been the case, we don’t see any sort of sustained heat on the horizon through the end of the month.
The muggy, tropical airmass that set up shop the better part of the past week is now a thing of the past. Temperatures this morning have fallen into the lower to middle 50s for most of central Indiana (impressive by early July standards) and we’ll likely go a couple of degrees lower than that tomorrow morning. We’ve shaved dew points by 15° to 20° this morning compared to 24 hours ago. Open those windows up and enjoy!
High pressure will dominate our weather through the long holiday weekend, supplying plentiful amounts of sunshine. While the weekend will open cool, temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s for the holiday, itself. Humidity levels will remain low.
Our next chance of rain won’t arrive until Tuesday afternoon/ evening as a cold front approaches. This front will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms into the day Wednesday (early thinking is 0.50″ to 0.75″ type stuff but we’ll fine tune as we get closer). Another feature I’m sure will catch your attention and that’s Tropical Storm Elsa pegged for the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the latest GFS (been very consistent with this idea). Regardless of Elsa’s eventual track, she won’t be a factor with our weather.
We’ll get back to a drier, cooler airmass next Thursday.
The upper level pattern this week will feature troughiness in the central portion of the country while a significant high pressure ridge continues to bake the Northwest with unseasonably hot, record-breaking temperatures.
Record heat will continue to bake the Northwest while unseasonably cool temperatures will be welcomed into the Front Range, southern Plains, and along the Gulf Coast.
We forecast widespread rainfall amounts between 1.5″ and 2.5″ across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier totals.
Well above normal precipitation can be expected ahead through the period from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes, TN Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
While ingredients aren’t in place for a widespread severe weather event, one or two cells could pulse to severe levels later this afternoon across the northern half of IN, including an isolated tornado, given the parameters.
Forecast Period: 06.27.21 through 07.04.21
A frontal boundary will remain draped across the general area through the middle part of this week. While subtle differences will remain regarding greatest concentration of shower and thunderstorm coverage each day, it’s a safe bet most of the region will see a passing shower or storm at some point each day this week. We’ll keep an eye on radar trends this afternoon for the possibility of a local severe weather warning (threat is primarily going to be centered on western and northern parts of the state). Eventually the front will get shoved south and we’ll welcome in drier, cooler air as we get ready to kickoff the long Independence Day weekend. In fact, overnight lows will likely fall into the lower 50s for some by the weekend with highs only in the low-mid 70s. Rain chances will persist Friday and Saturday before we dry things out in earnest for the holiday, itself.
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The upper pattern this week will feature a dominant upper ridge across the northern tier, centered over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a stubborn upper low will move slowly northeast out of the southern Plains early and mid week.
The immediate western seaboard will run below to well below normal this week, while the upper Plains into the Great Lakes run well above average.
Well above normal rainfall can be expected through the period across the Ohio Valley, TN Valley, and Mid Atlantic regions.
We forecast between 1.5″ and 2″ on a widespread basis across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier amounts with this setup.
Forecast Period: 06.06.21 through 06.13.21
Our weather pattern will be dominated by a stubborn upper low moving slowly northeast out of the southern Plains. Eventually, this upper low will get entangled in the westerlies and begin to lose influence on our weather towards the tail end of the week. Before that, we’ll notice a rather marked difference in the type of airmass this week compared to what we’ve seen of late. A deep tropical flow, straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, will bring moisture-rich air into the Ohio Valley, including dew points that will approach the oppressive level (65° to 70°). While daytime highs will be kept cooler with the clouds and rain around, overnight lows will be elevated with such a humid airmass in place. A daily dose of showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this pattern- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the humidity, locally heavy rain is a good bet at times. While coverage of showers and storms should slowly begin to diminish towards Friday and Saturday, we’ll still keep mention of scattered storms in our forecast into next weekend.
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Unseasonably cool weather will dominate the south-central Plains and into the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Meanwhile, unseasonable warmth will prevail across the West.
A wet pattern can be expected along the eastern seaboard and south-central Plains. Drier than average conditions can be expected across the northern tier and central Gulf Coast.
We forecast between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain in the week ahead for central Indiana.
Forecast period: 05.30.21 through 06.06.21
Refreshing times will continue to dominate through the remainder of the holiday weekend. While dry and unseasonably cool air will grab the headlines in the short-term, changes will arrive by midweek as a storm system blows into the Ohio Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase by Tuesday night and Wednesday and some of these storms may contain locally heavy rain. A broad southwesterly flow will keep things feeling more typical for this time of year for the 2nd half of the week, as well. More seasonable temperatures can be expected late week (lower 80s for daytime highs) along with an increase in humidity levels providing daily chances of afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” storm coverage.
Temperatures will run slightly above normal (for a change) across a good chunk of the country through the upcoming 7 days. Only exception to this will be across the South.
The Heartland will be in the cross hairs of a multi day heavy rain event this week. Meanwhile, from the central and Ohio Valley and points east we’re looking at a continued dry stretch.
Central Indiana can expect between 1” and 1.5” of rain in the week ahead on average.
This will be an active week for the Plains as a multi day severe weather episode compliments what will also be an evolving flood risk.
Forecast Period: 05.15.21 through 05.22.21
Change is ahead over the upcoming week towards a pattern more typical of what we’d come to expect this time of year. We’ll say goodbye to the cool, crisp air in the short term period and replace it with an increasingly warm and muggy feel of things. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this transition. While the chances of widespread heavy rain are diminishing, we will see scattered to numerous showers and storms during the early and middle part of the work week. These will be of the “splash and dash” variety and certainly won’t require any cancellation of outdoor plans. High pressure appears like it’ll nudge its way into the region Wednesday night, allowing us to enjoy another stretch of dry conditions as we close the work week and head into next weekend.
Temperatures will moderate from the unseasonably cold conditions as of late. We’ll make a run for 80° by Tuesday here in central IN.
Above normal rainfall is expected in the week ahead from the mid MS Valley and Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
We forecast most central IN rain gauges to receive between 1.75″ and 2.25″ in the week ahead.
A new spring storm will emerge out of the Plains Tuesday and likely ignite a round of severe weather throughout tornado alley.
Forecast Period: 04.24.21 through 05.01.21
A relatively weak storm system will lead to plenty of clouds today and a couple of light passing showers (better chance of steadier rain downstate). This system will blow by to our east tonight and allow a drier air mass to build into the region as we move through the 2nd half of the weekend, complete with a return of sunshine! Enjoy the sunny and much warmer open to the week as significant changes await by Wednesday. Before this, a strengthening southwesterly air flow will push high temperatures into the lower 80s Tuesday! Attention will then shift to a complex and multifaceted storm system that will deliver heavy rain and thunderstorms (potential present for a couple stronger storms midweek that we’ll continue to monitor) in rounds Wednesday through Friday. While it won’t rain the entire timeframe, periods of heavier rain can be expected. We’ll dry things back out heading into next weekend.
