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Category: 7-Day Outlook
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/09/video-weekend-heavy-rain-threat/
Aug 07
Dry And Turning Hot; Watching Late Week…
Highlights:
- Sun-filled days
- Heat cranks up
- Late week questions
Turning Up The Heat…After a refreshing weekend, the heat returns later this week. Look for highs in the lower 90s with an oppressive feel to the air, as humidity builds. “Air you can wear” will be an appropriate forecast title come mid week. The forecast is easy through the midweek stretch with sunshine as the rule.
Things become more unclear as we approach the back half of the week and the weekend. We note the GFS is rather progressive in swinging a cold front through here with scattered showers and thunderstorms, followed by a significantly cooler/ drier air mass a week from today. On the other hand, the European solution is drastically different as it slows the front to a “crawl” coming through the Ohio Valley and also entrains GOM (Gulf of Mexico) moisture from the serious rain/ flood maker later this week across the Gulf states. It’s a significantly wetter look, locally, and a situation we’ll continue to keep a close eye on in the coming day, or two.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/07/dry-and-turning-hot-watching-late-week/
Aug 02
Lots Of Sunshine…
Highlights:
- Lots of sunshine
- Best storm chances Friday this week
- Turning less humid this weekend
Sunglasses Required…The storm axis has set itself up to our west, including IA and MO. At one point, data and upper level steering currents seemed to align in a manner that would be further east, but that’s obviously not the case. The end result here will be a drier forecast, overall. We’ll still have to remain on our toes for storm potential through week’s end, but the confidence is low and the drier regime looks good this morning.
Less humid air will push in this weekend, along with continued sunny conditions. All in all, the first weekend of August looks very pleasant. Plans to go to the State Fair anyone?
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/02/lots-of-sunshine/
Jul 28
Storms Increase In Coverage This Afternoon…
Highlights:
- Storm coverage increases
- Cooler than days past
- Unsettled pattern next week
Stormy At Times…Widespread thunderstorms have resulted in as much as 4″-5″ of rain across southeastern IN during the early morning hours. Flash flooding has resulted (including in and around the Cincy area, as well). Closer to the home front, upper air energy will combine with a weak surface wave of low pressure to result in an enhanced storm chance this afternoon and evening across central IN. Some locally heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms that develop, along with vivid lightning.
Scattered storm chances will remain Friday into Saturday, but there will also be plenty of dry hours, as well. Drier air should keep most of the state rain-free Sunday before an unsettled regime returns for early and middle parts of next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/28/storms-increase-in-coverage-this-afternoon/
Jul 27
Storm Chances, But Plenty Of Dry Time…
Highlights:
- Storm chances, but timing needs fine tuning
- Turning slightly cooler over the weekend
- Unsettled regime continues early next week
More Sunshine Today…Areas of heavy rain resulted in localized flooding across south-central IN yesterday. While we can’t go with a completely dry forecast today, it will be an overall drier day when compared to Tuesday. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but most should remain dry.
Upper level energy and increased moisture will lead to a more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. With precipitable water values approaching 2″ in spots Thursday, localized hefty downpours will again be possible.
We’ll continue scattered storm chances this weekend, particularly Saturday, as renewed upper level energy moves overhead. After a slightly cooler stretch of weather, compared to normal, we’ll begin to heat things back up next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″ (localized heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/27/storm-chances-but-plenty-of-dry-time/
Jul 24
Unsettled, But A Better Feel Coming…
Highlights:
- Storm chances increase tonight-Monday morning
- Drier, cooler air on deck
- Widespread storms Thursday
Hang In There…It’s been a long couple of days with high heat and humidity, but relief is in sight. A cold front will move through the state Monday. Ahead of this front, a band of showers and thunderstorms will slide through Indiana. A few of these storms could be strong with locally heavy rain. Best chances of storms across central IN appear to arrive tonight and Monday morning, before transitioning to southern IN Monday afternoon. Drier air will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday.
Our next rain and storm chances are dialed up for Thursday and early indications suggest this could be a fairly widespread event. Though we’ll maintain rain chances next weekend, coverage will diminish when compared to Thursday. Temperatures will be much more tolerable than what we’re dealing with today.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″ (Locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/24/unsettled-but-a-better-feel-coming/
Jul 20
Cranking Up The Heat…
Highlights:
- Much more dry time than stormy
- Heat and humidity reach dangerous levels this weekend
- Cooler next week
Splash And Dash Storms, But Most Remain Dry…A quick glance at the forecast above may suggest wet times, but don’t let that fool you. “Isolated” and “scattered” are key words. While we’re still keeping an eye on the potential of a more widespread complex of storms late tonight/ early Thursday, we’re far from confident on the precise location of this potential storm complex and short term modeling isn’t offering up much help. Regardless, with such a muggy air mass in place, an isolated storm could fire anytime between now and the weekend. There are a couple periods we’re watching for more concentrated storm potential (Friday evening and Sunday). Timing remains fluid.
The big story with this forecast remains the heat and humidity. Temperatures will soar into the middle 90s this weekend and when you combine those hot readings with dew points in the lower and middle 70s, dangerous conditions result for anyone with longstanding outdoor plans. Have a means of taking frequent breaks and receiving plenty of water. The heat and humidity this weekend will be a serious situation.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/20/cranking-up-the-heat/
Jul 18
Stormy Start; Heat Builds Late Week…
Highlights:
- Storms to start the work week
- Heat and humidity build
- Heat doesn’t last
Renewed Storm Chances Later Today…Alarm clocks weren’t needed today as a big complex of storms and heavy rain rumbled through the state during the pre-dawn hours. Many neighborhoods received a quick 2.5″+ during the overnight and predawn hours. As we write this, renewed thunderstorms are firing to our west and will impact portions of the state later this afternoon. Additional hefty rains are a good bet for some.
We’ll dry things out as we rumble through the mid week stretch and while isolated storms are possible to close the week, most folks should remain dry as a big ole’ upper ridge builds over the mid west. The big story will be intensifying hot, humid weather- centered on Friday-Saturday. Heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees during this time frame, as well. The good news is that forecast data points to the associated hot dome backing west and setting up shop over the Rockies to close the month and open August. Accordingly, the hottest anomalies will shift west, as well. We’ll be left with a NW flow aloft providing a cooler and unsettled stretch to close the month of July and open August.
The pattern to close July and open August should look rather familiar to what we’ve seen the majority of summer. NW flow aloft with frequent rain/ storm chances. Courtesy: TropicalTidbits
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/18/stormy-start-heat-builds-late-week/
Jul 16
Pleasant Weekend Before Storms Return…
Highlights:
- Dry and pleasant weekend
- Storms return late Sunday night into Monday
- Heat builds late next week
Refreshing Feel…A weak disturbance is tracking through central IN this morning with a band of clouds and a couple sprinkles. That said, sunshine will quickly return late morning into the afternoon and set up a beautiful day, along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity.
Our next round of storms will arrive from the NW late Sunday night into Monday. A few of these storms could be strong to severe and also include locally heavy rain.
Modeling disagrees on the magnitude of cooling and drier weather behind Monday’s front. The more aggressive GFS would imply another push of pleasant air for a couple days Tuesday-Wednesday, while the European isn’t as bullish. For now, we’ll split the difference and revisit tomorrow.
One thing that modeling does agree on is building late week heat. Expect a hot, humid close to the work week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/16/pleasant-weekend-before-storms-return/
Jul 10
Wrapping Up The Weekend On A Nice Note…
Highlights:
- Dry weather continues
- Wet, active pattern returns mid week
Beautiful Sunday…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we wrap up the weekend. As a result, we can expect lots of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, including low humidity levels. All-in-all, we really can’t ask for better weather this time of year.
Monday will remain dry, but the deeper we progress into the week, rain and storm chances will go up. While we include the mention of rain and storms in the forecast each day from Tuesday on, please know that it won’t rain the entire time and there will be many dry hours each day. That said, it does appear as if we’re entering another active stretch, and fine tuning will be required to pinpoint specifics around timing and track of storm complexes in the days ahead.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/10/wrapping-up-the-weekend-on-a-nice-note/