Category: 7-Day Outlook

Dec 09

Buckle Up; Active Winter Pattern Is Only Beginning…

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-7-32-12-amHighlights:

  • Very cold with snow showers diminishing
  • Messy second half of the weekend
  • Awaiting our next storm mid week
  • Frigid air awaits

Wintry Hits Are Lining Up…Fresh arctic air combined with even the slightest bit of upper energy can produce an overachieving snow shower event. As was the case overnight with many neighborhoods through central IN accumulating a coating to around 1″ of snow.  Take it slow this morning and leave extra time to reach your destination.  Bitterly cold air continues to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend (keep in mind our average high and low are in the lower 40s and middle 20s, respectfully).  As we look through the upcoming 7-day period, temperatures will run significantly below average throughout.

Our next storm system is dialed up this weekend.  Clouds will increase as we progress through the second half of the day Saturday and light snow will develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  As the area of low pressure tracks from northern MO into the Great Lakes, we’ll get into a milder southerly flow Sunday.  This will help bring in enough warm air to transition snow to rain during the day Sunday.  Beforehand, a light accumulation of snow is possible in and around Indianapolis (more on potential amounts this time tomorrow).  Heavier snow will pile up across northern Indiana.  Precipitation should shut off rather quickly Sunday night and we’ll be in between systems Monday.

By Tuesday, our attention will turn northwest as we await the arrival of another arctic cold front.  As the front moves in, modeling suggests multiple waves of energy move along the boundary, throwing moisture into the cold air and creating a rather snowy scenario as we progress through mid week.  We need to get through the weekend first, but this could also be an impactful event.  Very windy and frigid conditions move in Wednesday into Thursday, including sub-zero wind chills.  Additional snow chances await next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″- 5″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/09/buckle-up-active-winter-pattern-is-only-beginning/

Dec 07

Busy Winter Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-7-59-56-amHighlights:

  • Arctic air blows in tonight
  • Winter storm potential this weekend
  • Another blast of arctic air next week

Busy Times Ahead…The fun and active winter pattern has arrived and will keep us forecasters on our toes as we go through the next couple weeks.  Early sunshine will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky this afternoon and a couple snow flurries or scattered light snow showers may precede the arctic plunge this evening.  Snow lovers, unfortunately the arctic wave didn’t materialize as we once thought.  (Hang in there, you have many more snow opportunities ahead).  We’ll turn windy tonight and wind chills will fall into the single digits by Thursday morning.  We’ll stay dry, but cold to wrap up the work week.

Eyes will then shift to the weekend as a developing storm system pushes snow into the region Saturday night.  Snow and/ or a wintry mix will continue Sunday.  Where this remains all snow, it’s likely to be a “plowable” event.  We still need to fine tune the details over the next couple of days to hone in on just where the mixing line will set up.  Thinking now is that from Indianapolis and points north, this is mostly a snow event, but stay tuned.

Another round of snow and wind will blow into town early next week.  This will likely be ahead of an even colder push of air by the middle part of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ – 5″
  • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/07/busy-winter-pattern/

Dec 05

Arctic Air Inbound…

screen-shot-2016-12-05-at-11-19-01-pmHighlights:

  • Morning showers
  • Snow showers late tomorrow night
  • Arctic air arrives
  • Weekend storm system

Find That Heavier Winter Gear…Our next area of low pressure will push northeast between now (north-central Gulf Coast) and Tuesday night (central Appalachians).  Most of the widespread rain will fall across southeast IN this go around, but enough moisture will spread west to result in scattered to numerous showers Tuesday morning.  With temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, don’t be surprised if a sleet pellet or snow flake mix in at times.  All in all, expect another “raw” day.  Drier times will await for the evening rush home.

Wednesday will feature mostly dry conditions, but the arctic hounds will be howling to our northwest.  Snow showers will precede this arctic blast Wednesday night and Thursday morning and may be enough to accumulate for some.  While models remain drier than we’d expect (given the overall set-up), we may “eek” out just enough moisture to coat the ground up for some. Thursday will be a frigid day, including wind chills in the single digits.  Heavier winter gear will be required to wrap up the work week.

The weekend features more “fun and games” as an area of low pressure attacks stale cold air left over from the late week arctic push.  Is the cold air deep enough to create wintry problems or does the southerly flow help scour out the chill and lead to more of a liquid event.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/05/arctic-air-inbound/

Dec 04

Active Wintry Pattern Is Here…

If you’re a fan of cold weather, including being on the field to “cash-in” on multiple winter storm threats, this is a pattern for you.  In all honesty, it’s tough to ask for a better pattern to yield such things.  With that said, each respected storm threat will have its’ own set of challenges that will have to be dealt with.  While we’re confident on IND being above normal in the snow department for the month of December by the 20th, it’s impossible to put numbers (from an accumulation perspective) on specific storm systems from this distance.  With that said, please know that the pattern is one that will have multiple impactful winter events lining up behind one another and it’ll be important to keep updated with forecasts as we progress through the next few weeks.  Needless to say, there will be plenty of opportunities to get those favorite photos with Christmas lights/ decor in the snow this season!

We’re tracking (3) winter systems over the upcoming week:

1.)  Today:  Dry air initially made it difficult for precipitation to make it to the surface this morning.  Heavier precipitation rates will arrive after lunch and fall for a few hours (between 1p-6p for most of central IN).  This will fall as mostly a cold rain from Indy and points south.  Further north, including north-central IN, this will fall as a rain-snow mix (snow should become the predominant form of precipitation shortly after starting.  Across northern portions of the state, this will be mostly snow and we note modeling trending colder with recent runs.  With heavier snowfall rates this afternoon/ evening, travel may become dicey across northern IN and wet snow accumulations of 2″-4″.  A coating to less than 1″ of snow is possible as far south as the northern suburbs of Indy.  The following time stamps can give you an idea what the radar may look like this afternoon into the evening hours.

1p forecast radar

1p forecast radar

4p forecast radar

4p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing for most (upper 20s to around 30) and with the lingering moisture on area roadways and sidewalks, a couple slick spots could develop here and there so be mindful.  We don’t anticipate major issues, however.

2.)  Wednesday night-Thursday:  An arctic front will blow into town mid week and we remain bullish on the idea a wave of low pressure delivers a shot of accumulating snow as the arctic plunge moves in.  As we’ve relayed over the past few days, model data is far from being in agreement on this idea, but when one looks at the overall pattern, it’s easy to see how there should be more reflection of low pressure moving along the pressing arctic boundary.  These can be tricky and many times modeling is “forced” to play catch-up at last minute.  For now, we continue with the idea of accumulating snow across central IN in the Wednesday night-Thursday time frame ahead of the coldest air so far this season.  Temperatures will fall to between 10-15 degrees for lows by late week, including single digit ‘chills.

Arctic waves can be tricky in the medium range and must be watched closely.

Arctic waves can be tricky in the medium range and must be watched closely.

3.)  Saturday-Sunday:  Our next wintry threat appears to roll into town next weekend.  Similar to mid week, this, too, could be an accumulating event.  It’s far too soon to get specific on timing, snowfall amounts, etc., but just know we’re keeping a close eye on next weekend for potentially more of a widespread wintry event and will sure-up details as we progress deeper into the week.

GFS ensemble members show the snowy pattern ahead over the upcoming week.

GFS ensemble members show the snowy pattern ahead over the upcoming week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/04/active-wintry-pattern-is-here/

Dec 03

Sunday Mix; Heavier Winter Gear Needed Next Week…

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-9-48-58-amHighlights:

  • Sunday mix
  • Wet Tuesday
  • Midweek snow and turning bitter

Winter Awaits…Today is chilly and dry. Thankfully, we’ll finally get to see the sun.  Enjoy it into the afternoon as clouds will quickly increase yet again later in the day as our next storm system approaches.

Speaking of that next system, moisture will spread into the chilly air mass Sunday morning.  Across central IN, this will fall as a wintry mix of light snow and chilly light rain.  Further north, this will be a mostly snow event, including a light accumulation possible (slushy amounts under 1″) across far northern portions of the state.  All-in-all, this won’t be a big deal.

We’ll have a brief break in between systems Monday before rain returns at night.  This is courtesy of another wave of low pressure lifting out of the northwest Gulf of Mexico, tracking northeast through the TN Valley and into southeastern Ohio.  Central Indiana snow lovers know that’s a classic track for snow around these parts this time of year.  We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, the air mass doesn’t look cold enough (yet).

A much colder pattern looms by the middle of next week.  Along with the arrival of the arctic air mass, we also favor a wave of low pressure delivering accumulating snow prospects Wednesday night into Thursday.  (That high Thursday will come at midnight with temperatures crashing through the day).  We’ll turn bitterly cold to close the week, including wind chills falling to around zero.

This is only the beginning of a very cold and wintry period.  There are plenty of “fun and games” awaiting as we rumble through the next couple weeks…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/03/sunday-mix-heavier-winter-gear-needed-next-week/

Nov 30

Active Weather Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-11-30-at-7-09-07-pmHighlights:

  • Colder close to the work week
  • Late weekend wintry mix threat
  • Double-barrel storm next week

Feeling More Like The Season…Colder air began to press into central IN Wednesday afternoon.  That was a hint of what we’ll deal with to wrap up the work week.  While nothing too far from normal, it’s definitely going to feel colder when compared to the past couple days.  A sprinkle or snow flurry is possible Thursday- especially across northern portions of the state.  Friday and Saturday will be dry, but continued chilly.

Our next storm system will approach the region Saturday night into Sunday.  A wintry mix, including a period of snow, is a good bet Sunday morning before enough warm air advection leads to a transition to a chilly light rain or drizzle.  It’ll be a raw day.  Needless to say with model data still in disagreement, we’ll continue to keep a close eye on Sunday’s forecast and update accordingly.

Next week will continue the fast-paced time of things, with a double-barrel storm system taking aim on the region Tuesday into Wednesday.  Showers will push northeast Tuesday followed by another round of rain Wednesday.  The coldest air of the season looms just beyond this forecast period.  Though timing is an issue that will have to be fine tuned, our air mass should grow cold enough to allow for precipitation to transition to snow showers late Wednesday night.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/30/active-weather-pattern/

Nov 30

VIDEO: Touching Base On Wednesday Morning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/30/video-touching-base-on-wednesday-morning/

Nov 29

Colder Times Loom; Late Weekend System…

screen-shot-2016-11-29-at-6-18-37-pmHighlights:

  • Second half of the work week trends colder
  • Late weekend wintry system?
  • Next storm looms next week

Temperatures Trend Downward…Moisture will lift northeast late tonight into Wednesday and could push light showers as far west at the Indy metro late tonight and early Wednesday morning.  Better coverage of showers will be found across east and southeast portions of the state Wednesday morning.  While highs Wednesday should top out in the lower to middle 50s for most central IN neighborhoods, temperatures will begin to slip during the afternoon and evening hours as colder air slowly oozes in.  The cooler trend will continue as we wrap up the work week.

All eyes will then shift to the weekend and a potential storm system Sunday.  Model data continues to differ significantly on the all-important details.  For now we’ll spare you from the nerdy meteorological lingo 😉 and lean towards increasing clouds Saturday evening with a cold rain or a wintry mix developing Sunday afternoon.  Should more energy come out and “phase,” this will become a system that will require more attention in the days ahead.  Stay tuned.  Any early wintry mix will depart Monday morning and we’ll briefly dry out into Tuesday.

By that point, another storm system will require our attention later next week.  Additional wintry prospects loom along with the first true shot of Old Man Winter just beyond this particular forecast period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/29/colder-times-loom-late-weekend-system/

Nov 28

Periods Of Rain; T-storm Chance Tonight…

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-7-57-02-amHighlights:

  • Rain turns heavy tonight; Storm threat, too
  • Trending colder to open December
  • Next storm arrives over the weekend

A Wet Kick-Off To The Work Week…Moisture is streaming northeast over the Hoosier state this morning and this is really just the beginning of a wet and, eventually, stormy open to the work week.  We may see a brief “lull” in the rain around the lunchtime hour, but heavy rain will increase in coverage this evening and continue into tonight.  Additionally, we’ll introduce thunder into the mix this evening.  In fact, some of the higher resolution, short-term, forecast models hint at a skinny line of thunderstorms that may impact central IN tonight.  Strong wind gusts are of biggest concern with this line.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 8p.

8phrrrConsiderable cloudiness will remain Tuesday and Wednesday, but both days will be much drier than today.  A secondary wave of low pressure will move northeast along a pressing cold front Wednesday.  Best rain chances Wednesday will fall across eastern sections of the viewing area.

The second half of the week will trend colder.  A sprinkle or flurry is possible Thursday.  The next storm we’re tracking will arrive over the weekend.  Clouds increase Saturday and Sunday offers up the next good chance of rain.  Though details are sketchy at this point, the prospects of a storm system with more wintry significance may arrive just beyond the 7-day period.  Stay tuned.  December is looking quite active and wintry…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/28/periods-of-rain-t-storm-chance-tonight/

Nov 26

Sunshine Returns This Weekend; Heavy Rain Event Looms…

screen-shot-2016-11-26-at-8-16-29-amHighlights:

  • Sunshine finally returns
  • Big time rain maker early next week
  • Trending colder to open December

Sunshine Slowly Returns…We’ve been socked in with clouds, chilly conditions, and overall gloomy weather for the past several days.  Thankfully, sunshine will eventually return this weekend.  Today has started with overcast skies, but slow improvements should provide an increasingly sunny sky as the day wears on.  Seasonable temperatures can be expected today.

The second half of the weekend will feature more in the way of sunshine, but our next storm system will be awaiting on deck by this point.  Southwest winds will turn increasingly breezy by the PM and clouds will quickly increase yet again.  Those clouds will yield rain as early as the wee morning hours Monday (well before sunrise).  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Monday and even a thunderstorm by afternoon/ evening.

Most of the heavy rain will fall Monday, but we’ll maintain mention of showers in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A second wave of low pressure will develop along a pressing front the middle of next week and spread moisture northeast. The “leader” storm system is much easier to forecast than the “follower” in this scenario.  The details are muddy at this point concerning the extent of how far west precipitation can make it.  Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things.  For the sake of this particular forecast, we’ll include mention of rain showers mixing with snow showers as colder air moves in Thursday.  Stay tuned.

The end of the week will feature a colder trend as we usher in December.

One final item on the agenda this morning- with this being Iron Bowl Saturday, we can’t leave you without wishing you an energetic WAR EAGLE!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.25-1.75 (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/26/sunshine-returns-this-weekend-heavy-rain-event-looms/

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