Jan 19
We’ve talked a lot about the relentless weather pattern that has kept our immediate region in what seems like a snow globe since mid December. Of course we’re on pace…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/locked-in-the-freezer/
Jan 19
As I write this, central Indiana is undergoing yet another winter storm that will dump a fresh 3-5″ of snow by midnight Sunday morning. We’re well on our way to reaching the snowiest January ever at IND and with the pattern ahead through the end of the month, we very well may just do it. Before we discuss snow, let’s take a look at the coming shots of arctic air.
While no weather event is identical to another, it’ll be rather easy to compare the coming arctic attack to that which we experienced earlier this month. That said, there are a couple of important things to consider. This next wave of arctic air will blow into town when “average” temperatures are at their lowest of the calendar year. Secondly, data continues to suggest this isn’t just one arctic plunge, but more of a longer duration event when compared to the bitter blast earlier this month. Needless to say, we’ll need to go into our preparation mode for another round of severely bitter air for the upcoming week.
Let’s look at the model data- note the eastern trough re-amplifying through the period, backing up our idea that this is a rather prolonged arctic event ahead. As of now, we focus on late in the work week/ next weekend when air temperatures plunge to their respected lowest values (below zero), but want to stress the entire period will be downright cold (much colder than normal), and the long duration event will put more strain on pipes, etc. than a quick-hitting, in and out, arctic outbreak…
When we talk about a longer duration arctic outbreak we’re talking about the possibility of below zero temperatures Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night followed by another arctic push that sends lows below zero next Sunday and Monday nights. Stay tuned.
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a record pace as far as snow totals go. While we’re not staring at any sort of significant winter storm over the upcoming week, a fast northwest flow can present challenges galore, and any clipper stands the chance to be an “overachiever” as they race southeast over the upcoming week. We fall back on the disclaimer we’ve mentioned in previous posts with clipper systems…the track and strength will be tough for forecast models to iron out until 24-48 hours out. Secondly, with arctic air firmly in place, snow ratios will be more common around the 20:1 level as opposed to the “normal” 10:1 ratio.
Let’s look at the upcoming snow threats over the next several days…
Our first light snow threat blows in tomorrow night into Tuesday.
We then target Wednesday night-Thursday.
Finally, we’ll keep a close eye on late week/ next weekend for yet another potential snow event.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-just-keeps-going-and-going-and-going/
Jan 14
We’ve made mention of this in the past and we bring this up again as the upcoming weather pattern is one that’s predictable in one sense, but very challenging in another. We know it’s going to get colder, that we’re confident on. That said, models will continue to struggle with the details of snow chances, associated with clipper systems diving southeast into the region. Issues with timing and snowfall amounts are common in these patterns up until 24-48 hours prior to the event.
Case in point, let’s take this weekend. Three forecast models are handling snow chances differently in the Friday-Saturday period. The European model and Canadian are jumping more on Friday snow (light accumulations), while the GFS is focused on Saturday snow (again, light accumulations)…
Which is the correct solution? It’s a tough call at this point, but we’ll go with a blend of the three for now, focused on best accumulating snow chances (1-2″ variety) coming late Friday into Saturday morning. That said, as mentioned above, it’s a tough call and this will require fine tuning as we move forward. Make it a great day!
The European and Canadian forecast models are honing in on Friday for best chance of light accumulating snow:
Meanwhile, the GFS is focused on Saturday for best snow chances:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/challenging-northwest-flow/
Jan 01
You can always catch your latest 7-Day Video Forecast in the video player to the right of this post.
We continue to be very impressed with what’s ahead, winter weather-wise, for central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 10 days. Simply put, what’s at stake is a 10-day period of winter weather that could rival the all time greats in terms of snowfall and cold. It’ll certainly be interesting to watch things unfold in the days ahead.
Here are some quick-hitting bullet points of what we’re eyeing…
First things first and that’s tonight’s and Thursday’s snow event. We think snow becomes widespread across central Indiana prior to, or around, midnight. The low pressure system that will aid in snow production across our region Thursday AM is organizing across the central Plains this evening and this will move east northeast with time between now and Thursday morning.
Latest high-resolution simulated model data shows the snow increasing in coverage across central Indiana around midnight.
We think the period of heaviest snow comes during the early to mid morning Thursday and will result in a horrible rush period on area roadways. Accumulating snow ends by noon and is replaced with falling temperatures, gusty northwest winds resulting in blowing and drifting, and scattered lake-driven flurries.
All eyes will then shift to storm number two set to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday. An arctic boundary will moves towards the region Saturday night and Sunday and help surface low pressure develop. All of our medium range models (GFS, Canadian, European) are on board with a developing surface low in the Ark-la-tex region late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning and can be seen below.
There are still some questions that we have in regards to the extreme snowfall forecasts off some computer models, and we’ll stick with our initial call made here last night of an additional 3-6″ of snow late Saturday night-Sunday for now. We come up with that range based off an all model blend, including raw numbers, operational data, and ensembles. An extremely strong arctic high pressure system will be plunging south and will limit how far north the heavy snow makes it. That said, snowfall ratios and an initial impressive thermal gradient will lead to a heavy snow storm for some parts of the Ohio Valley region Sunday. Stay tuned.
As early next week approaches (and I’m all settled in to enjoy what I hope to be Auburn’s second National Championship in 4 years), the coldest air since 1994 will be blowing into the region. Downright dangerous wind chill values of 40 degrees below zero will be possible Monday into Tuesday and result in extremely dangerous conditions to be outdoors for any period of time.
Here’s a look at the latest wind chill idea:
Forecast lows of 15 to 20 degrees below zero will be likely early next week across central Indiana with afternoon highs struggling to make it to zero.
Prepare now for a significant triple threat punch of snow and cold in the days ahead. Stay tuned!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/triple-threat-of-dangerous-winter-weather-ahead/
Jan 01
It’s great to be back in the good ole weather office and craft a post about the upcoming weather pattern- a pattern that should be pointed out to be progressing along as planned. Simply put, if you like winter weather, this is the pattern for you.
If you haven’t had a chance to read the posts from the past couple weeks, please be sure to do so as we laid the ground work as to why we were buying a cold, wintry pattern returning:
As we look ahead over the upcoming (7) days we’re tracking two accumulating snow opportunities and one big slug of downright bitter (and dangerously cold) air.
First things first and that’s the snow event ahead Wednesday night into Thursday.
We currently think snow overspreads central Indiana late Wednesday night into the wee morning hours Thursday. Snowfall accumulations with system numero uno will likely be in the 2-4″ range for many neighborhoods across central Indiana.
The latest high-resolution NAM model shows the snow moving in and becoming moderate to briefly heavy during the wee morning hours Thursday:
Heaviest snow with system #1 falls prior to noon Thursday with light snow and gusty winds lingering for the PM.
That said, we don’t have much down time as system #2 is set to arrive late Saturday night into the wee morning hours Sunday. The weather situation is one that features an arctic boundary sinking south over the region Sunday morning with a wave of low pressure organizing along the middle Mississippi River Valley. The surface low is expected to move northeast Sunday and help spread precipitation into the greater Indianapolis and central Indiana region. With cold air in place, this precipitation is likely to fall in the form of snow.
While we have a couple of days to keep an eye on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, the likelihood of additional accumulating snow is growing with each and every model run. The “ridiculously” early call on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, based on a variety of raw numbers, medium range models, and ensembles would suggest 3-6″ of additional snow is ahead during the aforementioned time period. Again, we caution confidence ins’t as high as with system #1, due to the time period, but please be sure to stay tuned.
The GFS shows widespread snow falling across the region Sunday, with a favorable surface low track for accumulating snow across central Indiana:
Following the second snow system, model data continues to suggest we have to deal with some downright dangerous air. In fact, this would be the coldest air in many a year across central Indiana and many other locations of the Mid West and even into the Deep South. Forecast lows in the double digit below zero range are possible following the second snow maker and associated arctic front early next week….
Needless to say, I hope you like winter weather!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/things-progressing-as-planned-double-shot-of-snow-love/