We touch on the potential winter storm brewing in the Sunday-Monday time period in this video. A significant winter storm is brewing for some and we cover some initial thoughts…
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Forecast Updated 02.24.14 @ 7:55a
Reinforcing Cold Inbound…A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Tuesday and result in downright frigid conditions by the middle of the week. Before that, a weak disturbance could produce scattered light snow showers Monday evening into early Tuesday. This won’t be a big deal as moisture is lacking, but don’t be surprised by a quick coating of snow in spots in the Monday evening-Tuesday morning time period.
Cold Is The Headline…The well below normal, and well-advertised, cold stretch will carry into late week, as temperatures stay more than 10-20 degrees below seasonal levels. We’ll note our next chance of snow due in here Friday as upper level energy moves overhead. We still have time to watch things unfold, but it’s possible we could deal with light accumulating snow Friday.
Eyeing Early March…We’ll keep a close eye on early March as the potential exists for a more widespread and more significant winter event across our neck of the woods. Details remain fuzzy at present, but the overall pattern is filled with wintry potential. Cold high pressure will be anchored north of the region and the southern stream of the jet appears to want to add a little “fun” to things… Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
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Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. 31/ 43 31/ 44 26/ 34 18/ 32 19/ 26 8/ 22 7/ 19 Light –…
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Accumulating snow? |
Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a
One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state. Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind. It’ll be another mild day.
Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding. In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.
The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening. While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening. The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state. Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time. Stay tuned. Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.
Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.
Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February. As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present. Stay tuned.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon. Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″. Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night. After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.
** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**
2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week. Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones. When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday. Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.
3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend. In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm. We’ll continue to monitor closely…
4.) Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March). Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.
