Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

Snowy Pattern Continues…

Considering we’re only a third of the way through December, we’re certainly running “snowier” than normal at this very early stage in the game.  As we look ahead at the upcoming 10 days, or so, we see this snowier than normal pattern continuing with multiple systems to contend with over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.  Up next will be the threat of some light snow showers and flurries with reinforcing arctic air Wednesday PM.  Nothing significant is anticipated here on Wednesday, accumulation-wise, but snow showers will blow through the area Wednesday afternoon.  The latest high-resolution NAM shows this well.

hires_ref_indy_37

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then our attention turns to a developing winter storm for the weekend. We think clouds increase Friday and snow develops Friday night into early Saturday.  Here’s a look at the latest GFS forecast model, valid Friday night.

gfs_ptype_slp_east_17

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fast forward that to Saturday morning and snow grows heavier…

gfs_ptype_slp_east_18

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GFS suggests a weak surface low tracks into eastern Ohio with backlash snow showers and embedded squalls continuing here Saturday night into Sunday.

gfs_ptype_slp_east_20

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s important to remember that we’re still a few days out from this event and I can guarantee you things will change as we go through the course of the upcoming few days that will require us to do some adjusting to our forecast Friday-Sunday.  That said, at this early stage in the game, unlike with our last storm, I’d favor areas from IND and points north as the place where heavier snow falls this go around.

Latest GFS ensembles suggest something similar to the operational run shown above with one low tracking into the eastern Ohio Valley as another coastal low develops.

f120

The European ensembles provide an “intriguing” look for an Ohio Valley winter weather event this weekend, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96

 

 

 

 

A couple of additional items to consider at this early juncture- this will be a fast moving winter storm so that will have an impact on snowfall accumulation.  Additionally, there’s also the chance enough warm air aloft advects (WAA or warm air advection) into the southern portions of the region to result in “mixing” issues (i.e. sleet and freezing rain).  In the primarily “snow zone” Friday night-Saturday (again, we’re currently targeting IND and points north for the snow zone) several inches of snow could accumulate.

Here’s an early look at what the latest mid-range forecast models are seeing in terms of potential accumulations with this event.  Top to bottom: ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian.  Stay tuned, we’ll have another update later!  Enjoy your day!

ECMWFGFScmc_snow_acc_east_24

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, NAM Model, snow

A Closer Look At Two Winter Weather Events.

Your updated, custom-built, Thursday video forecast can be found to the right of this post in the video player.  We typically update our video forecast during the evening.

Good Morning and happy Thursday!  We continue to monitor the latest data for our upcoming winter weather events.  It’s a busy time of things and by the looks of the overall pattern, I’ll have to stock up on the coffee for the weeks ahead.  Quite honestly, a very cold and snowy pattern appears to be setting up shop now through the end of the month.  Anyone dreaming of a white Christmas? 😉

Here are some quick bullet points for the upcoming few days:

  • Snow/ sleet overspreads the region this evening
  • (2) waves of snow/ sleet move through the region between this evening and Friday
  • Saturday will be a very cold and dry day
  • Renewed snow and potentially freezing drizzle move in Sunday
  • We continue to forecast a total of 3-6″ of snow between tonight and Monday morning

Latest forecast models continue to suggest temperatures fall through the day with a mixture of snow and sleet overspreading the region as early as 3-5pm from southwest to northeast.  We anticipate a rather rapid transition from sleet to snow, especially from IND and points north.  Here’s a look at the latest HRRR simulated radar data, valid tonight at 6 o’clock:

hrrr_ref_indy_15

Here’s a look at the GFS model.  (We think this particular model has a much better handle on things now that we’re closer to the event).  Note the “waves” of wintry precipitation forecast and we agree with this.  Wave #1 arrives for the evening rush with wave #2 arriving Friday morning into the afternoon.

GFS1GFS2GFS3

Additionally, after a very cold and dry Saturday, renewed accumulating snow will overspread the region Sunday, potentially ending as a mixture of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle atop the fresh snow Sunday afternoon.

GFS4GFS5

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow

Questions Around Next Week’s Arctic Front…

Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found in the video to the right of this article.

We continue to keep a close eye on the developing weather situation here late next week.  Many questions remain in regards to the track, timing, and strength of the cold air associated with an arctic cold front that will result in record-breaking cold for portions of the country next week.  How much fight will the southeast ridge put up as the front progresses east?  Will we have to deal with a wave of low pressure along the arctic boundary, potentially leading to some wintry “mischief” around these parts?  We hope to give some clarity around those questions by looking at some of the latest data below.

First, let’s take a look at the various model solutions for late next week.  It should be noted that the latest run of the National Weather Service’s GFS forecast model has taken a turn to look more like the overnight run of the European forecast model and suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure moving through here Friday into Saturday of next week, leading to the threat of wintry precipitation.  Taken at face value, this would suggest the threat of an accumulating snow event for central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning of next week.  This is in stark contrast to the 0z GFS run signaling dry, cold weather during the aforementioned time frame.

Here’s a look at the latest GFS solution, valid next Friday evening:

gfs_namer_180_1000_500_thick_s

There’s relatively good agreement in the GFS ensembles, but, again, we’ll have to fine tune the details.  It’s encouraging to see the agreement in the pattern evolution, though, this far out.

f192

Here’s a look at the latest European forecast, again valid for next Friday evening.

As we spoke about above, the 0z ECMWF run suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure in the cold air here next Friday into Saturday.  Similar to the latest run of the GFS model, there would be the potential of accumulating snow here.  The ensembles are on the left and the operational run is on the right.  The precise details will have to be ironed out, but we note relative agreement here.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_192

The latest Canadian forecast model also sees the wave of low pressure along the pressing arctic front, but suggests the wave is too far south to result in any sort of significant snowfall accumulation for central Indiana.  (As of this post time, the 12z Canadian ensemble package hadn’t arrived).

cmc_precip_mslp_east_31

So, with all of that said, we still have plenty of time to watch things unfold in the coming days.  What are we confident in as of today?

  • Brutally cold arctic air invading the northwest early in the week before slowly spreading east and south as we progress through the week.
  • We’ll be in a much warmer (though very brief) pattern here Thursday as highs zoom into the middle 50s to near 60 with rain.
  • We target the arctic front to blow through here during the day Friday.
  • While we’ll turn MUCH colder than normal next weekend, we aren’t looking at the brutality of the cold that our friends out west will have to deal with.

What are the answers that have to be ironed out this week?

  • Strength and depth of the cold air coming east.
  • Strength of the upper ridge over the Southeast US.
  • The resistance of the ridge will be crucial into determining where the “wintry precip. zone” sets up shop.
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow

Tuesday Night Video Update: Lake Enhanced Snow Showers

Tonight’s Video Highlights: Lake Effect Snow Showers And Squalls Set To Impact Central Indiana Coldest Thanksgiving In Years On Deck Eyeing The Potential Of An Arctic Invasion Next Week

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather