Jan 29
We posted earlier this morning on the near term (below) and Friday and Saturday remain quite challenging and complicated. Precipitation type and amounts will have to be resolved as we…
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Jan 27
A major battle is taking shape between two of the more respected mid range forecast models for the late week period, including Super Bowl weekend. The differences range from yet another wintry weekend, with a couple shots of accumulating snow to one that’s much milder and includes some rain. Operational guidance today has remained consistent with what each particular model has been saying for the past 24-48 hours, adding further complexity to the upcoming late week period. Usually we’d give a slight nudge towards the European output (warmer solution), but here in a bit we’ll tell you why we’re really not ready to hedge more towards one particular model over the other at this time frame. Instead, we want to give it a couple more days and see which model “gives in” to the other.
Let’s dive into the European output first.
We note both models in relative good agreement on Thursday night into Friday as light snow overspreads the region (not a huge deal, but potentially enough to make for a slippery Friday morning commute).
As we move into Saturday the European tracks a developing surface low much further north than the GFS, resulting in a milder solution across central Indiana and a forecast that would produce a rain to snow solution Saturday as cold air quickly pours back into our region, with enough snow, perhaps, to produce a light accumulation Saturday night. However, it’s important to note, most European ensemble members are colder than the operational run and this is something we’ll need to continue to monitor.
As we head into early early next week, the European forecast model remains bullish on a potential major winter storm, with a favorable storm track for heavy amounts of wintry precipitation across central Indiana. The time we’re eyeing for this next storm falls in the Monday night-Tuesday time period so we have plenty of time to monitor things and iron out the details…
Now, as we look at the GFS forecast model, we note a colder solution from start to finish. We have to raise an eye brow here as the track record of the GFS in the mid range is one that has been known to be biased too “flat” and too cold in handling similar patterns. Is that saying the GFS is wrong here? Absolutely not…nobody knows that at this juncture. It is saying we have to rely on experience and remember similar patterns of the past, including the way the model “corrected” itself with time as we drew closer to the particular event in most cases…
Nonetheless, similar to the European, the GFS delivers a round of accumulating snow Friday morning, but is flatter (colder) with the initial wave and also leads to quite the overrunning event through the Ohio Valley. As a matter of fact, we deal with two rounds of accumulating snow…Friday morning into the early afternoon and again Saturday morning, associated with yet another wave of low pressure.
Of interest, the GFS also sees the potential strong winter storm that could impact our neck of the woods early next week. Needless to say, the surface map next Tuesday morning would have snow lovers smiling in a big way should this come to fruition…
While we have many details to iron out late week and on into early next week, the overall weather pattern is one that we remain confident on and the results are cold and stormy (i.e. snowy) over the upcoming 10-14 day period. As a matter of fact, long range teleconnections suggest we remain colder than normal and stormy through the majority of February. In short, there’s really no let up in sight from the overall cold and wintry time of things Hoosiers have grown oh so accustomed to this winter…
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Jan 21
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a rip-roaring start and, as we’ve discussed in previous posts, the mid to long range data suggests we remain locked in an exceptionally cold and snowy pattern. Officially, as of this evening, the Indianapolis National Weather Service has posted some impressive stats (the full report can be found here), including:
As we look ahead to the upcoming 7-10 day period, we note a continuation of arctic reinforcements- each which will be plenty capable of adding to the snowfall total. Additionally, our cold air mass will only grow even more severe and bitter over time, including multiple days during the aforementioned period where central Indiana will go below zero. Finally, there have been many questions concerning a potential big storm centered on early February. I’m not sure where this rumor started, but it’s far too early to say with any sort of confidence any specifics around a possible big winter storm early February. That said, as we’ll get into briefly below, the pattern does appear to be aligning itself in a way where a widespread winter storm is possible somewhere across the eastern half of the country.
Okay, okay, back to the near term… Let’s start with tomorrow! After a cold and dry start to the day, our next arctic front will blow into the region during the evening. Arctic fronts are notorious for having bursts of heavy snow rates in a scattered fashion and this appears to be the case as the next arctic front moves through Wednesday evening. We bracket the hours of 5p-8p for the possibility of heavy snow bursts racing through central Indiana. While these won’t last long, they’ll likely be intense- capable of depositing a quick 1″-2″ of new snow on a gusty northwest wind within 30-60 minutes. White-out conditions and extremely heavy snowfall rates will accompany the heavier bursts of snow. Latest high-resolution model data shows the heavy snow bursts accompanying the arctic front tomorrow evening:
Thursday will be mostly dry and frigid, but all eyes will then begin to turn to our next significant winter event Friday into Saturday. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley and the next approaching arctic front (and associated low pressure) will really being to kick up the wind across our region Friday. We’re afraid we deal with another round of severe blowing and drifting snow Friday, especially Friday afternoon and night. Areas most suspect to drifting and blowing snow will be central Indiana’s open country and may not be too different from the problems our region dealt with Sunday into Monday morning from blowing and drifting.
As we approach Friday night into Saturday, snow will overspread the region and will likely accumulate to the tune of a “few inches” during this time period. Strong winds will remain, shifting from the west to the northwest and eventually north. Open country will remain the prime place for continued severe blowing and drifting problems.
Just as soon as Saturday’s snow systems exits stage right, we turn our attention to potentially another significant snow maker for the second half of the weekend. Latest model data remains consistent on moving another potent clipper system into our region Sunday, including the GFS and Canadian forecast models. We still have time to fine tune the precise track of the storm, but just north of the low’s track an additional 3-5″ type snow is possible Sunday. Note the GFS and Euro in relative agreement on the track of the low, with the Canadian currently a touch further north. We’ll fine tune in the days ahead… Experience with similar patterns from the past suggests central Indiana should brace for more accumulating snow Sunday.
As for the brutal cold, we note multiple pushes of fresh arctic air behind each snow maker. We currently target Thursday morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning, next Wednesday morning, and next Friday morning as having the most likely shot at dipping below zero. The “coldest of the cold” likely means Tuesday morning takes the crown, with lows potentially dipping into the double-digit below zero range for central Indiana. The European forecast model (below) even shows sub-zero temperatures making it as far south as the southern Appalachians.
As we look even longer term, there have been many questions centered on the potential of a big winter storm for early February. Before we go any further, we want to stress it’s far too early to make any claim of certainty to the above. That said, there are items we can pick up on to a least “raise an eyebrow” that something of significance may be brewing… Do we mean for anyone to take that verbatim and to the bank? Absolutely not.
The European Weeklies suggest we need to keep an eye on the first week of February. They show a potential phasing of the jet (where the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together- often times resulting in a big storm)… That said, we want to again stress this is far too early to be discussing with any sort of certainty. Heh, the next week will keep us busy enough!
Keep the shovel handy! Snow removal companies, thank you for your service and hard work…hopefully you have plenty of coffee on hand!
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Jan 19
We’ve talked a lot about the relentless weather pattern that has kept our immediate region in what seems like a snow globe since mid December. Of course we’re on pace…
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Jan 19
As I write this, central Indiana is undergoing yet another winter storm that will dump a fresh 3-5″ of snow by midnight Sunday morning. We’re well on our way to reaching the snowiest January ever at IND and with the pattern ahead through the end of the month, we very well may just do it. Before we discuss snow, let’s take a look at the coming shots of arctic air.
While no weather event is identical to another, it’ll be rather easy to compare the coming arctic attack to that which we experienced earlier this month. That said, there are a couple of important things to consider. This next wave of arctic air will blow into town when “average” temperatures are at their lowest of the calendar year. Secondly, data continues to suggest this isn’t just one arctic plunge, but more of a longer duration event when compared to the bitter blast earlier this month. Needless to say, we’ll need to go into our preparation mode for another round of severely bitter air for the upcoming week.
Let’s look at the model data- note the eastern trough re-amplifying through the period, backing up our idea that this is a rather prolonged arctic event ahead. As of now, we focus on late in the work week/ next weekend when air temperatures plunge to their respected lowest values (below zero), but want to stress the entire period will be downright cold (much colder than normal), and the long duration event will put more strain on pipes, etc. than a quick-hitting, in and out, arctic outbreak…
When we talk about a longer duration arctic outbreak we’re talking about the possibility of below zero temperatures Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night followed by another arctic push that sends lows below zero next Sunday and Monday nights. Stay tuned.
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a record pace as far as snow totals go. While we’re not staring at any sort of significant winter storm over the upcoming week, a fast northwest flow can present challenges galore, and any clipper stands the chance to be an “overachiever” as they race southeast over the upcoming week. We fall back on the disclaimer we’ve mentioned in previous posts with clipper systems…the track and strength will be tough for forecast models to iron out until 24-48 hours out. Secondly, with arctic air firmly in place, snow ratios will be more common around the 20:1 level as opposed to the “normal” 10:1 ratio.
Let’s look at the upcoming snow threats over the next several days…
Our first light snow threat blows in tomorrow night into Tuesday.
We then target Wednesday night-Thursday.
Finally, we’ll keep a close eye on late week/ next weekend for yet another potential snow event.
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