More Active Changes In Store…

Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.

13/ 39	32/ 60	33/ 51	27/ 38	21/ 38	30/ 40	19/ 35
– – –	– – –	Light	Light	– – –	Light	Light

Forecast Updated 03.13.14 @ 7:39a

Thankful For That March Sun…It’ll be a frigid start to your Thursday with many reports of lower teens across the region, including wind chill values around zero. That said, that strong March sun angle will help temperatures zoom to near 40 with a mostly sunny sky Thursday afternoon.

We’ll do even better than that on Friday, once again with a mostly sunny sky. We’ll introduce a strong southwest wind into the mix Friday, but this will be a warmer breeze so we’ll take the trade off, right?! Needless to say, we’ll wrap up the work week with beautiful conditions!

Colder Weekend; Watching A Southern Storm…After another mostly pleasant Saturday, a cold front will blow through here Saturday afternoon. At the same time, we’ll keep our eyes on a developing wet southern storm system. Latest guidance keeps this storm south of our region, but we’ll keep an eye on things. A light shower is possible Saturday morning. Colder air will blow into town Saturday night and Sunday.

Headaches Next Week…Model solutions vary wildly for next week. Case in point, the Wednesday afternoon run off the powerful European forecast model suggests a snow storm and cold conditions Tuesday into early Wednesday. All the while, the GFS takes the storm along the Canadian border and results in a much warmer and drier solution here with highs near 60. We’re leaning more towards the European in this situation, but not fully buying in just yet to the locked and loaded snow storm solution.

It’s important to note the GFS operational run doesn’t agree with it’s own ensembles so this is one of the main drivers with us at least “leaning” more towards the European solution at this juncture. We’ll make sure that we keep a close eye on the Tuesday-Wednesday period and update accordingly. For now we’re going with a rain-to-snow situation Tuesday with potentially accumulating snow falling Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

* This morning we note the European is onto a warmer solution, as well, but before we change our forecast all over the place, we prefer to look over afternoon data and will update things accordingly later this evening for next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-3″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Bill McMillan March 12, 2014 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Rain, snow, Winter Storm

Spring Tease Through Tuesday; Back To Winter Wednesday.

Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.

34/ 60	40/ 63	18/ 40	10/ 35	27/ 53	32/ 49	28/ 40
Light	– – –	Light	– – –	– – –	Light	– – –

Forecast Updated 03.10.14 @ 7:55a

Windy Warm Up…A weak weather system will scoot north of IND this morning, but may be close enough to push a couple of very light showers into our northern suburbs during the mid to late morning period. We note the latest HRRR model does just that. Precipitation amounts, if any, north of the city will be very light and not much more than a trace. Otherwise the big story today will be a gusty southwest wind and much warmer temperatures. We think highs zero in on the 60 degree mark by this afternoon as southwest winds gust over 30 MPH.

This then sets the stage for a “chamber of commerce” weather day Tuesday with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.

Wintry Trouble Brewing…We continue to monitor the “goings on” for an accumulating snow event in here on Wednesday. Low pressure will scoot across southern portions of the state Wednesday morning and help spread what will initially be rain into the region during the wee morning hours. As the low deepens heading east it’ll tap much colder air looming just north of our area and result in a transition from rain to snow Wednesday morning from north to south. A heavy, wet snow is likely to fall during the mid to late morning hours before ending. The other aspect of this system will be a very stiff northeast wind and this will lead to blowing and drifting problems for some. Our expected snowfall accumulation idea ranges from 2-5″ of heavy, wet snow north of the city with 2″, or less, anticipated for the city and points south. We’ll fine tune these amounts later, but feel our initial idea remains a good one this morning.

Thursday will return to the dry theme though much colder than what the early week period was.

Questions Heading Into Next Weekend…Forecast models are having difficulty handling what’s going to be a very active northwest flow regime later in the weekend into the following week. We’re concerned at least one of the systems diving in from Canada has the chance to phase with the southern stream and crank out another snow event for the Ohio Valley during the time frame mentioned above, but we’re not confident on which system this will be just yet.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2-5″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Bill McMillan March 10, 2014 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Spring Tease, Windy, Winter Storm

Sunday Afternoon Update: Awesome Stretch Of Weather Before Dramatic Changes.

Good Sunday afternoon! We’re enjoying beautiful weather and conditions will only improve Monday into Tuesday. That said, a potential winter storm looms Wednesday. Additionally, we’re keeping a close eye on…

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Bill McMillan March 9, 2014 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, snow, Spring Tease, Winter Storm

Beauty Of A Close To The Work Week…

Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.

21/ 53	30/ 46	21/ 45	33/ 60	40/ 61	21/ 40	13/ 32
– – –	Light	– – –	– – –	– – –	Light	– – –

Forecast Updated 03.07.14 @ 7:30a

Get Outside & Enjoy…We’re going to wrap up the work week with beautiful conditions. If you can get out of work or school early today, IndyWx.com highly recommends it :-)! High pressure will support sunny skies (after a little morning fog in spots) and milder temperatures. Highs will zoom into the lower to middle 50s this afternoon!

Weak Weekend System…A weak cold front will slip south through the region Saturday. Early morning sunshine will quickly give way to increasing clouds and developing light rain. Rain will end as a period of light snow Saturday evening, but won’t accumulate. The key word in all of this is light, with rainfall totals under a tenth of an inch.

Sunday will be a dry, chilly day with highs in the middle 40s.

True Spring Feel…The spring crave will be in full effect early next week as highs both Monday and Tuesday shoot into the lower 60s with sunshine. We’ll notice a gusty westerly breeze Monday, assisting with the milder surge of air into the Ohio Valley.

Late Season Winter Storm Brewing? Many questions remain around the ultimate track of the storm system by the middle of next week. As of now, a blend of forecast model suggests a rain-to-snow scenario Wednesday, but it’s far too early to talk accumulations. We’ll be able to fine tune some things over the weekend and have a better idea soon in regards to precipitation type and amount. Regardless, a much colder air mass will pour into the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-3″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Bill McMillan March 7, 2014 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Spring Tease, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Spring Tease In The Midst Of A Cold Pattern…

Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.

17/ 32	19/ 40	25/ 55	30/ 43	25/ 44	32/ 56	39/ 56
Light	– – –	– – –	Light	– – –	– – –	– – –

Forecast Updated 03.05.14 @ 7:15a

Snow Weakens As It Pushes South…What will look like an impressive shield of snow across northern IL and IN this morning will weaken dramatically as it pushes south into central Indiana later this evening. The primary reason? A very dry air mass in place. That said, we’ll continue to include scattered snow showers and light snow in our forecast, especially north of I-70 this evening. Many won’t see any sort of accumulation, but a couple reports of a coating of snow will be possible north. It’ll remain much colder than normal.

Moderating To Finish The Work Week…Dry conditions will return to wrap up the work week along with a warming trend. By the time we reach Friday, we’ll actually be above normal! Combine that with a sunny sky and we’re looking at an absolutely gorgeous close to the work week. Plan to get out and enjoy!

Weak Weekend System…A cold front will move south through the region and be responsible for returning the area to a chillier regime over the weekend, along with a possible light snow Saturday. Light is the key word and we’re not looking at any accumulation of significance. Sunday returns the dry theme as we “jump ahead” an hour.

Spring Tease…Though we’re still locked in a predominately colder than normal weather pattern, that won’t stop us from enjoying a much deserved spring tease early next week. Both Monday and Tuesday will feature highs in the middle to upper 50s with sunshine! Definitely well deserved, indeed!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Less than 1″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Less than 0.10″

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Bill McMillan March 5, 2014 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

More Active Changes In Store…

Spring Tease Through Tuesday; Back To Winter Wednesday.

Sunday Afternoon Update: Awesome Stretch Of Weather Before Dramatic Changes.

Beauty Of A Close To The Work Week…

Spring Tease In The Midst Of A Cold Pattern…