Category: 7-Day Outlook

Nov 17

Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/

Nov 15

Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.55.18 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Clouds and rain return
  • Colder late week
  • Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November

Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning.  That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions.  Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.  With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.

Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening.  A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain.  It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not.  A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night.  When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains.  We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.

gfs_pwat_conus2_14Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week.  Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving.  With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…

The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.

KIND_2015111500_nxa_384

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

Nov 12

Very Windy Today; Next Big Storm Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-12 at 7.17.23 AMHighlights:

  • Very strong winds
  • Dry times return
  • Big storm next week

A cold front swept through the state during the predawn hours.  While a few breaks of sunshine may be seen early this morning, low clouds will quickly spread back over the region.

Wind will be the big story today as we still think gusts over 50 MPH are a good bet throughout central parts of the state.  Note the tight pressure gradient that remains in place across the region today into Friday.  Friday won’t be AS windy as today, but still quite blustery.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_3

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_7Our next big weather maker will arrive during the early to middle portions of next week.  Model consensus continues to highlight a hefty rain event and thunderstorms.  Early numbers would suggest 2″-3″ potential.  More details on our next storm tomorrow and on Twitter (@IndyWx).

Before we close this morning, we wanted to post the updated JAMSTEC seasonal outlook for the upcoming winter.  As a whole there aren’t a lot of changes from previous runs.  (We like to see consistency :-)).

JAMSST

JAMTemp

JAMPrecipOverall, it agrees with our forecast and strongly disagrees with any of those warm winter forecasts out there for the south and east.  One note, just because the drier anomalies show up over the Ohio Valley (what you would typically expect during a moderate to strong El Nino event) doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a lower than normal snow season.  Keep in mind, moisture content in snow is much less than rain.

After taking a look at things, I like where we stand with our Winter Outlook.  One thing’s for sure, time will tell!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/very-windy-today-next-big-storm-next-week/

Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/