Category: 10-day

Jan 01

Happy New Year; All Is Calm (For Now)…

Updated 01.01.24 @ 7:40a

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a joyous and prosperous 2024, filled with health and happiness!

The weather pattern through Friday is simply about as quiet as one could ask for by early January standards. High pressure will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. A weak disturbance will drift across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and could set off a few light snow showers, but even if this does take place, we’ve already wasted more pixels than needed. 🙂

A calm, quiet start to the new year is on tap.

Things begin to change this weekend as low pressure organizes in the western Gulf of Mexico with a trough extending north into the central Plains. Both features will move east and then head up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The all-important question here has to do with the northern energy. Do we get a reflection of a surface low into the Ohio Valley and associated heavier precipitation, or are we mostly bypassed off to the south (thanks to the primary low taking control)? Stay tuned. This picture should become much clearer over the upcoming 24-48 hours. Sensible weekend weather here ranges from an all out winter storm to nothing more than light snow.

Another storm will follow early next week. Finally, a big ole batch of arctic air will likely expand into the region in the 10-15 day period. By that point the question will become just how cold can we go? A lot of that will have to do with what, if any, snowpack we have down by that time. Are we just colder than average by mid January standards or talking sub-zero stuff?

Needless to say, enjoy the quiet times while we have them. A fresh Client video will be posted first thing in the morning with more details on this and more.

Happy new year!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/happy-new-year-all-is-calm-for-now/

Dec 29

Clipper Arrives New Year’s Eve; Pattern To Open ‘24…

Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:20a

First, if you didn’t have a chance to see our thoughts after the European Weeklies came in, you can check that out here.

After the snow across portions of western and southern Indiana the past couple days (thank you for all of the reports, by the way), the next feature we’re tracking has to do with a clipper system that will dive southeast across the upper Mid West and into the Ohio Valley New Year’s Eve. This will certainly be moisture-starved, but should have just enough to work with to generate snow flurries and scattered snow showers by late Sunday morning, continuing in off an on fashion into the afternoon and evening.

A weak clipper system will offer up a few snow showers New Year’s Eve.

That’s really all there is to track, locally, over the upcoming 7-day period. The predominant storm track will shift off to the south during this time frame as an active, El Niño induced, southern jet takes hold. The one potential feature of interest is out towards the end of next week. We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, it looks like the phasing of energy will take place just a little too far east for anything of “excitement” here.

Temperatures will continue to cool closer to seasonal averages and perhaps a bit below normal over the upcoming 10-14 days. Greatest cool anomalies will be located across the western and southern tier during this timeframe.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/29/clipper-arrives-new-years-eve-pattern-to-open-24/

Nov 28

Tuesday Morning Rambles: A Much More Active Pattern Takes Foot…

Updated 11.28.23 @7:16a

The coldest air of the season is greeting us out the door this morning, complete with snow flurries and wind chill values around zero. Safe to say that the heavy winter gear is needed today as highs struggle to crack 30° later on.

We’re waking up to 10s this morning with wind chill values near 0°.
Snow flurries and scattered light snow showers compliment the arctic intrusion this morning. No accumulation of significance is expected.

The upper pattern will transition to a milder (no blow torch by any means) and more active regime as we navigate the next 6-10 days. Most, if not all, storm systems will feature “wet vs. white” weather here over this particular time period.

Dry times return Wednesday only to give way to increasing clouds and widespread rain Thursday PM into Friday. The overall gloomy and damp pattern will prevail over the weekend and into early next week. Needless to say, enjoy whatever sunshine you can get later today and Wednesday.

Wetter than normal times return late week into early Week 2.

It continues to look like the potential is there for more appreciable cold to get back involved with the pattern after mid-month and especially closer to the holidays.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/28/tuesday-morning-rambles-a-much-more-active-pattern-takes-foot/

Nov 05

Sunny Start To The New Week Takes A Gloomy Turn…

Updated 11.05.23 @ 1p

You sure would be hard pressed to find more pleasant weather conditions by early November standards. Plentiful sunshine can be expected today as high temperatures head into the 60s. While we’ll add clouds (and big wind gusts) Monday, highs will zoom into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southwest gusts will approach 40 MPH at times to open the work week. We’ll keep the warm theme going through midweek.

Gusty southwest breezes can be expected as we open the work week.

A cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening. Forecast models continue to differ on rainfall amounts with this frontal passage, but excessive rain isn’t expected.

In general, this looks like a 0.10” to 0.25” type event but note the wetter European and drier GFS solutions below. Expect more agreement in the coming day or 2. Regardless, this isn’t a “big deal” type of event by any means.

Expect a more seasonable brand of air to filter in as we close the work week and head into and through the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will also return. Highs will settle back into the lower 50s with overnight lows around freezing.

Speaking of dry, the theme over the next couple weeks as a whole continues to look drier and quieter than normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/05/sunny-start-to-the-new-week-takes-a-gloomy-turn/

Oct 11

Briefly Warmer; Blustery Close To The Week With Rain And A Few Storms…

Updated 10.11.23 @ 7:42a

A cold front and associated area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley as we close the week. Briefly warmer air will surge north into the region Thursday and Friday with temperatures flirting with 80° both days.

Moisture levels will also increase as dew points creep up closer towards 60°.

A weakening area of rain and embedded storms will rumble into the state late Friday and Friday night. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected but the Storm Prediction Center outlines the far western portion of the state in a marginal risk, primarily for a wind threat. We still bracket 0.25” to 0.75” rain potential.

Speaking of wind, non-thunderstorm gusts towards 30 MPH can be expected Friday and Saturday.

With the cold core upper low hanging around, additional spotty showers, mixed with graupel, can be expected over the weekend into early next week.

The theme over the next couple weeks is for cooler than normal conditions to dominate overall.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/11/briefly-warmer-blustery-close-to-the-week-with-rain-and-a-few-storms/

Sep 22

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/22/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/

Sep 19

VIDEO: Generally A Quiet And Mild Pattern; Sunday Exception?

Updated 09.19.23 @ 5a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/19/video-generally-a-quiet-and-mild-pattern-sunday-exception/

Aug 29

Pleasant Start To Our Labor Day Weekend; Significant Heat Returns Next Week…

Updated 08.29.23 @ 7:15a

A weakening band of showers will push into north-central Indiana later this evening. A quick shower May move through the city but most should remain dry as the associated secondary cold front passes through the area. This frontal passage will serve up dry, cool air reinforcements that will carry us into the start of our Labor Day weekend. Overnight lows into the 40s can be expected.

A quick shower is possible this evening, primarily north of the city

Our “hint” of fall will quickly fade through the holiday weekend and into next week as the upper ridge builds northeast. This won’t only deliver unseasonably hot and humid conditions but will keep us much drier than normal. In fact, after today, I don’t see any meaningful chances of precipitation for at least the upcoming 10-day stretch.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/29/pleasant-start-to-our-labor-day-weekend-significant-heat-returns-next-week/

Aug 28

About As Quiet As It Gets; Another Round Of Major League Heat On Deck As We Move Into Early September…

Updated 08.28.23 @ 12:25p

A secondary cold front will drop southeast across the state Tuesday. While we’re not anticipating any sort of widespread significant rain and storms with this frontal passage, it will be the best opportunity for rain over the next 10-14 days, overall. Best chances of precipitation will come after 5p from a weakening line of showers and storms to our northwest.

Best chances of measurable rain will be to the northwest of immediate central Indiana.

Reinforcing dry, cool air will filter into the region as we close the work week and get set to head into the Labor Day weekend. Here’s a bit of advice: please be sure to make time to get outside and enjoy this pleasant airmass as major changes await over the weekend and into next week. Until then, our late week stretch will feature overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The upper ridge will begin to build back northeast over the holiday weekend and with it will come another round of unseasonably hot, humid conditions. While it might not be quite as miserable as what we dealt with last week, chances are that we’ll have to contend with several days of 100°+ heat indices and “jungle-like” humidity with an extended period of rain-free days deep into the Week 2 timeframe. Buckle up.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/28/about-as-quiet-as-it-gets-another-round-of-major-league-heat-on-deck-as-we-move-into-early-september/

Aug 17

Cold Front Offers Up PM Storms & Reinforces Pleasant Weekend Airmass; Heat Is On Next Week…

Updated 08.17.23 @ 6:04a

A quiet start to the day will give way to a noisy lunchtime period as a line of thunderstorms drops in from the northwest.

Vivid lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours can be expected.

The Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a ‘marginal’ risk of severe today. Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated with this frontal passage.

Our unseasonably cool, pleasant airmass we’ve enjoyed the past couple days will be reinforced with this frontal passage. Lows tomorrow and Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s in outlying areas. Dry and sunny conditions will compliment the early fall-like air. Soak it up as a period of unseasonably hot weather still awaits next week.

The byproduct of the sprawling ridge above? A week ahead with highs well into the 90s and an extended period of dry, sunny weather.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/17/cold-front-offers-up-pm-storms-heat-is-on-next-week/

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