Category: 10-day

Apr 25

Long Range Report: Looking Ahead To May…

Updated 04.25.24 @ 7:15a

While we have a couple of storm systems to track in the upcoming week, the majority of the heavy rain and severe weather will remain confined to areas west of here- mostly throughout the Plains and into the upper Mid West. In short, the immediate-term has “more bark than bite.”

The overall long range look reflects a lack of any sort of stagnant regime, locally, and it also doesn’t show that we’ll have to endure much in the way of “extremes” over the upcoming 3-4 week period from a temperature or precipitation perspective. – A good sign as Plant24 hits its true stride.

Week 1

The JMA and European are in agreement that this period will feature warmer than normal temperatures and near average rainfall. Of note, we’re tracking storm systems that will impact our weather Friday, Saturday, and again Monday and Tuesday.

Week 2

We note guidance getting more bullish on an East Coast trough beginning to develop during this time period. While likely averaging out slightly above normal as a whole in Week 2, I’d also plan on a few days of cooler air (type of stuff that could send us to around 40° at night and low-mid 60s during the day) around the Day 8 – 10 time frame. The period should once again feature timely rains, but nothing far off from the average.

Weeks 3-4

It’ll be interesting to watch what the European Weeklies do later today during this time frame, but the JMA is highlighting a more unsettled (wetter) pattern for now in the middle to latter part of May. Near to slightly below average temperatures and widespread above normal rains are being shown. (We’ll update this period after reviewing today’s European Weeklies).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/25/long-range-report-looking-ahead-to-may/

Apr 24

VIDEO: Frosty Start Tomorrow Morning; Warmer Days Ahead…

Updated 04.24.24 @ 7:27a

Low level clouds will continue to push south this morning, leading to a mostly cloudy day, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor. Downstate will hold on to sunshine a little longer than up this way. All in all, it’ll be a cool and breezy day. Those clouds will clear out of here quickly later today and as winds diminish, it’ll set the stage for frost in many areas, especially outside of the city, itself come Thursday morning. Hang in there, warmer (and increasingly muggy days) await as we push through the weekend. This sets the tone for what’s ahead as we flip the page to early May…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/24/video-frosty-start-tomorrow-morning-warmer-days-ahead/

Apr 23

Gusty And Increasingly Wet Day; Warming Up Late Week With Storms…

Updated 04.23.24 @ 7:33a

The day is dawning quiet but that will change as we move through the afternoon. Not only will rain increase in coverage and intensity, but winds will pick up out of the southwest. A wind-whipped rain will greet commuters on the way home this evening.

Rain will overspread central IN later this afternoon into the evening.

Most local rain gauges should accumulate 0.35″ to 0.50″ with the passage of this cold front.

As mentioned, winds will be strong and gusty today. We’ll top out with gusts upwards of 40 MPH across the region- perhaps even a bit stronger in spots.

High pressure will settle overhead midweek, allowing for clearing skies, diminishing wind, and cooler temperatures.

Additional chances of patchy frost can be expected around the greater Indy area by Thursday morning. Outlying areas away from the city, itself, can expect to dip into the lower to middle 30s Thursday morning with widespread frost.

As we look ahead to the weekend and early next week, our region will undergo a regime change. Warmer, increasingly muggy air will replace the cool, stable air of midweek and storm chances will also increase. As of now, it looks like wettest days, including most widespread storms, will come Friday and Monday. While you’ll note storms in the forecast “box” below for Saturday and Sunday, it’s important to reiterate these will likely be few and far between (“splash and dash” variety). Most of the weekend is looking dry as of now.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/23/gusty-and-increasingly-wet-day-warming-up-late-week-with-storms/

Apr 21

Midweek Cold Front Delivers Another Frost Threat; Warming Up And Turning Stormy Next Weekend…

Updated 04.21.24 @ 8:54a

It was a frosty start to the morning across central Indiana, especially in outlying areas. We’ll do it all over again tonight and Monday morning as temperatures dip back into the lower and middle 30s. The fine folks over at the Indianapolis National Weather Service office have hoisted a Frost Advisory from 1a to 10a Monday.

Widespread frost is expected Monday morning.

Otherwise, the work week will open with a continuation of the sunny skies we’ve enjoyed over the past few days.

That will all begin to change as a cold front arrives from the northwest on Tuesday. Clouds will quickly return and showers and thunderstorms will follow. We’re not talking about excessive rainfall with this system, but 0.25″ to 0.50″ is likely as the front moves through the Ohio Valley. Gusty southwesterly winds can also be expected, including up to 40 MPH at times Tuesday.

Rain and embedded thunder returns Tuesday.

This will be a fast moving system and dry conditions will quickly return overnight and into Wednesday morning. This FROPA we’ll also help to reinforce the chilly airmass and a renewed frost (and potentially even a freeze) threat looms by Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Another round of frost is expected midweek.

As we roll into next weekend, an overall regime change is on the docket, including a much warmer and more humid airmass engulfing the region. Along with this transition to more of a tropical feel, heavier rain and storms will return as well. As of now, closing out April and opening May is looking to feature numerous heavier rain and storm events. This will all get kicked off Friday.

A return of active times is expected to close April and open May.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/21/midweek-cold-front-delivers-another-frost-threat-warming-up-and-turning-stormy-next-weekend/

Apr 18

VIDEO: Storms Rumble In Tonight; Long Range Musings Into May…

Updated 04.18.24 @ 4:34a

The day will start off quiet, but won’t end that way. We’re monitoring the threat of strong to severe storms later this evening, continuing into and through the overnight hours. The good news? All of these will be off to our east prior to heading out the door to work or school Friday morning. Then we can concentrate on a refreshingly cool weekend with sunshine returning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/18/video-storms-rumble-in-tonight-long-range-musings-into-may/

Apr 17

Rounds Of Storms To Close The Work Week; Chilly, But Dry Weekend…

Updated 04.17.24 @ 5:17a

While we’re still tracking storm potential today, there are a lot of questions around where these will initialize. Thinking here is right around the city, itself, and then points northeast (better chance of stronger storms for places like Fort Wayne and Muncie than Indianapolis-proper).


Storms should develop around or just after lunchtime (around 1p, or so) across central Indiana and then race off to the east. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of around 40 MPH can also be expected today.

Instability levels are marginal at best today which, thankfully, should prevent widespread severe weather, locally.

A more stable airmass will quickly arrive tonight and remain in place through the daytime Thursday.

Our next round of storms, some of which will likely be gusty, will blow into town overnight into the predawn hours Friday.

High pressure is still slated to build in to allow for a much calmer (and cooler) weekend. Keep an eye on the potential for frost both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/17/rounds-of-storms-to-close-the-work-week-chilly-but-dry-weekend/

Apr 16

VIDEO: Couple Rounds Of Storms To Get Through Before A Fabulous Weekend…

Updated 04.16.24 @ 5:43a

It doesn’t get any better around these parts this time of year than what we experienced Monday. Unfortunately, today marks the return of unsettled weather that will continue through midweek. The reward after going through a few days of rain/ storms? An incredible weekend, complete with a return of sunshine!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/16/video-couple-rounds-of-storms-to-get-through-before-a-fabulous-weekend/

Apr 15

VIDEO: Gorgeous Monday Transitions To Unsettled Times; Cooling This Weekend Gives Way To Renewed Warming In The 10-15 Day…

Updated 04.15.24 @ 7:45a

We couldn’t ask for better weather to kick off the new work week. Plentiful sunshine, temperatures heading for the 80s, and a generally light, variable wind will make it tough to work indoors today. Rain and storm coverage will grow in the coming days…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/15/video-gorgeous-monday-transitions-to-unsettled-times-cooling-this-weekend-gives-way-to-renewed-warming-in-the-10-15-day/

Mar 31

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.31.24 @ 7:26a

The upcoming immediate term will be headlined by a multi day heavy rain and severe weather episode. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as the pathway for multiple waves of low pressure to ride along through Tuesday. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat (primarily targeting immediate central and north-central Indiana), we’ll also likely have to deal with (3) rounds of severe storms. We’ll allow our short-term products to handle those severe threats, but just know all modes of severe are on the table with the greatest emphasis being on large hail with this setup. Should a couple discrete cells develop near or just south of the boundary then an elevated tornado threat would ensue. Again, we’ll have a fresh post hoisted later this afternoon or evening on that.

Overall, there’s no change in the idea of an active pattern continuing from Week 1 (image 1 below) into Week 2 (image 2 below).

The cooler pattern behind our early week storm system will reverse in significant fashion Week 2. – Transitional regime at its finest.

Week 1 temperature anomalies

Week 2 temperature anomalies

The busy nature of the pattern is reflected in the upcoming 2 week precipitation anomalies.

Severe weather will be possible at least across a portion of our immediate viewing area starting this evening and continuing daily through Tuesday.

Colder air will crash in here Wednesday and as an upper low swirls overhead, wet snow will develop. Snow may even fall heavily enough to accumulate on grassy surfaces in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

*Upcoming 10-Day Rainfall Projection: 3” to 4”+

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/31/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-49/

Mar 24

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a

While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.

The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.

A trough will take up residence across the West with only glancing blows of cooler air, locally.
A chilly week is in store for the West with the temperature swings balancing out very close to average across our area this week.
Rainfall will run average to slightly below average in the week ahead south and east.

Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24

We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).

A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.25 – 03.26
  • 03.30 – 04.01

*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-48/

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