It’s hard to believe we’re only a few days from Christmas! Through the 22nd, Indianapolis is running a whopping 6 degrees below average. Cold rules across the Lower 48, month-to-date.
This is, of course, is in stark contrast to December 2015.
As we move forward, an active pattern awaits between now and the end of the year. This comes after a few days to catch our breath, including moderating temperatures leading up to Christmas.
An initial wave of moisture will lift northeast and result in a rather gloomy day Friday with increasing rain chances Friday afternoon and evening. Initially, precipitation won’t make it to the ground, but we should saturate the column enough that rain reaches the ground for most of central IN by evening. Showers continue Friday night into the wee morning hours Christmas Eve. (If traveling towards Chicago, a wintry mix and snow will be a good bet Friday PM).
Christmas Eve will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle, but the majority of the concentrated rain should fall south of the region. Santa’s ride into central IN should be uneventful, weather-wise.
Christmas Day will start off with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along with cloudy conditions and an increasingly gusty breeze that will shift out of the southeast to the south Christmas night. Shower chances will be present by the evening before giving way to more widespread showers and embedded thunder overnight into Monday morning. Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the daytime Christmas before rising into the upper 50s predawn Monday.
Temperatures will fall through the day Monday and we should run much closer to seasonable temperatures next week. A couple of additional storm systems will have to be monitored for rain and snow prospects the middle of next week and again around New Year’s Eve/ Day. Initially, we’ll be rather mild, but there may be more in the way of cold air readily available to make the storm system around New Years “more interesting” from a wintry perspective.
Longer term, we have to wonder if the negative EPO isn’t about to take control just past the New Year. More and more data is coming around to the idea that the arctic hounds may (yet again) be on the attack early January… Time will tell and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.
Tuesday will remain rain-free across the region, along with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels (mid 70s after a low in the lower 50s).
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive; generally 0.10″-0.25″ during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
The cool air flowing in behind the front is impressive though. In fact, highs both Thursday and Friday will likely only reach the lower 60s (if that).
Despite the chilly air that will be with us to wrap up the work week, ensemble data is in excellent agreement on a significant warmer than average regime developing under a big eastern ridge in the 6-10 day. This will likely promote highs into the lower 80s next week for a few days. Impressive, no doubt, considering we’ll be rumbling through the second half of October by that point.
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
