Category: 10-day

Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…

A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.

A couple of storms may fire up ahead of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but widespread rain isn’t expected.
We’ll notice a wind shift from the southwest to west behind the frontal boundary Friday evening.

While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.

As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.

Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…

That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.

As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.

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A Teleconnection Tale…

Before we display the mean upper level pattern ahead over the next couple weeks, let’s look at some of the various teleconnections to gain some insight behind what’s driving the overall pattern.

EPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

WPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

MJO- heading into Phase 6 with a look like it wants to rumble into Phase 7. This is a warm signal this time of year.

With the warm signals above, it should come as no surprise of the next couple weeks offering up a predominant eastern ridge.

Days 6-10

Days 10-14

While a couple of weak cold fronts may lead to somewhat cooler air briefly, the balance of the next couple of weeks looks to offer up much more in the way of summer-like heat and well above normal warmth. It should also be noted that the overall pattern looks like a dry one over the next 10-14 days, as well.

Don’t put away that swim suit just yet!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-teleconnection-tale/

Wet Pattern Not Just An OHV Problem…

Rain has been dominating the weather pattern lately. A widespread portion of the Ohio Valley is running 125% to 175% of mean over the past (30) days. More specific to central Indiana, the bulk of this fell during the back half of April.

When we broaden out the scale, we note this wet pattern isn’t just an Ohio Valley problem, but focusing the heaviest rain on the Ark-La-Tex region.

Unfortunately, when we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the pattern will continue to favor heavier than normal rainfall- not only locally, but especially centered in the area just mentioned- eastern TX, AR, and LA.

The reason behind this active and wet pattern? A persistent southeast ridge and mean trough digging into the southwest. This, combined with unseasonably cold air across the northern tier, helps set up a battle “in between” (from the s-central Plains into the Ohio Valley). Factor in the broad southwest flow aloft, and multiple disturbances will track in a southwest to northeast fashion next week, enhancing rain intensity and coverage at times. In parts of the Ark-La-Tex region, as much as 8″ to 10″ of rain may fall over the upcoming 10-days.

The excessive rainfall can also impact the upcoming season and we’ll dig in deeper here next week with our 2019 Summer Outlook.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-pattern-not-just-an-ohv-problem/

Saturday Morning All-Access Video Update…

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Sunday Morning Video Update: Walking Through The Active Week Ahead; Looking Towards Mid-Feb…

A new week has dawned and with it will come a very busy weather pattern. Thankfully, today we’ll enjoy a “hint of spring,” including temperatures approaching the 60 deg. mark…

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