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Unsettled And Mild…

Screen Shot 2017-01-17 at 10.06.05 PMHighlights:

  • Crossing our fingers for a few looks at the sun
  • Windy, rainy conditions return
  • Spring-like weekend ahead

Hang On To The Rain Gear…We’re in the midst of a downright gloomy stretch of weather and, unfortunately, the overall trend remains locked in to a dreary regime.  That said, there will be an opportunity for at least a few looks at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between storm systems.  Our fingers are crossed!

Any sun will quickly fade and give way to increasing clouds Thursday and blustery, rainy conditions by the afternoon.  Rain will likely grow heavy at times Thursday night into early Friday morning before another stretch of briefly drier conditions build in Friday PM through early Saturday.

Our active pattern remains this weekend, as a wound-up storm system promises a wet, windy, and stormy close to the weekend.  Similar to our late week storm, additional heavy rain seems likely, as a gulf connection will be in place.  Though heavy rain will take the headlines, the “spring fling” is also noteworthy.  Highs this time of year normally are in the middle 30s.  For some through central IN, highs will approach a whopping 30 degrees above normal.

Upper level energy remains early next week with pesky showers continuing, along with breezy conditions.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″ (locally heavier totals)
Uncategorized

Warm, But Unsettled Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-16 at 7.26.31 AMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm week
  • Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
  • Eyeing winter’s return next week

Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.

Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall.  Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday.  After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.

We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday.  🙂  Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.

The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night.  Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.

Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department.  Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_20172.)  Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much.  They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.

hrrr_ref_indy_183.)  More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.  This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.

hires_ref_indy_37

hires_ref_indy_404.)  A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week.  Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast.  We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s).  Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.

SW Flow

D75.)  The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period.  It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

 

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Unseasonably Warm, Winter thoughts...

January Thaw For The New Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2017-01-14 at 4.13.32 PMHighlights:

  • Damp, chilly Sunday
  • Milder week ahead
  • Spring-preview late next week

Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s).  Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north.  Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.

While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions.  Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.

We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week.  Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions.  (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).

The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend.  In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday.  Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place.  We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.

Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February.  Winter is far from over…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Freezing Fog, Rain, Spring Tease, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Saturday Morning Freezing Rain Update…

More widespread precipitation is spreading across central Indiana this morning.  Most of this precipitation is falling as freezing rain.

Radar at 7:19a.
Radar at 7:19a.

Modeled forecast radar continues to show moisture streaming across the region through around the lunchtime hour before diminishing.

9a forecast radar
9a forecast radar
12p forecast radar
12p forecast radar

Temperatures will remain around 30-32 degrees along and north of the I-70 corridor as this rain falls so it’ll freeze on contact.  Allow extra time if you must travel and slow down.  Due to our phenomenal road crews and marginally cold temperatures, we don’t expect major travel issues this morning, but do use caution if traveling.  A light glaze of ice (around 0.10″) is possible on elevated surfaces, including tree limbs and power lines.

Temperatures will go above freezing this afternoon across most of central Indiana and precipitation will end.  Highs both today and Sunday should top out in the middle 30s across the region.

5p forecast radar
5p forecast radar

Lows tonight will settle back down into the middle to upper 20s, but dry conditions should remain for most of the night.

10p forecast radar
10p forecast radar

Our next round of precipitation looks slated for a Sunday morning arrival and, similar to this morning, this precipitation will likely fall as a mixture of light rain and light freezing rain.

Updated 7-day out later!  Have a great Saturday!

Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain