Sep 28
Updated 09.28.23 @ 7:50a Our warm open to October will reverse in big time fashion week after next. In other exciting news, our annual winter outlook will be posted Sunday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/28/video-dry-times-return-jailbreak-pattern-next-week/
Sep 27
Updated 09.27.23 @ 7:41a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/27/video-another-unsettled-day-page-turns-to-extended-dry-and-unseasonably-warm-stretch-to-open-october/
Sep 26
Updated 09.26.23 @ 7a
A closed upper low will pivot across the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. Our quiet start this morning will give way to “bumpy” times by evening. We expect scattered, but strong to severe storms to fire up after 5p. A couple of these could produce hail/ wind and we can’t rule out a quick spin up tornado with this setup.
The Storm Prediction Center highlights most of the area in a “marginal” risk of severe weather today, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this area (particularly western and central IN) is upgraded to a “slight” risk at some point.
Storms should become most widespread just before sunset and continue into the overnight hours.
As we transition into Wednesday, morning convection will likely still linger before greatest concentration of rain and storms pivots to eastern and southeastern parts of the state by afternoon.
By the time all is said and done, many central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain but there will be a few lucky folks that accumulate much more (type setup capable of 1”-2”+ in localized areas).
As we get set to rumble into the weekend, drier air will return and plentiful sunshine is expected. We still expect an unseasonably warm open to October with an extended stretch of days in the lower to middle 80s- good for 10° to 15° above the norm.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/26/storms-fire-this-evening-early-october-blow-torch/
Sep 25
Updated 09.25.23 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/25/video-rain-and-embedded-thunder-returns-warm-open-to-october/
Sep 24
Updated 09.24.23 @ 10:44a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/24/video-better-rain-chances-return-and-doubling-down-on-the-colder-mid-oct-pattern-shift/
Sep 23
Updated 09.23.23 @ 7:50a
Dry conditions will prevail through 99.9% of the weekend and for most, 100% of the time. A few very light showers may sneak into western counties Sunday night, but light is the key word. With such a dry airmass in place, most of this activity is expected to arrive in a weakening state.
The temperature pattern is “easy peasy” this week as unseasonably mild temperatures dominate. An extended stretch of highs around 80° can be expected in the week ahead.
An upper low will pivot out of the Mid West and through the Ohio Valley midweek. This will deliver more in the way of unsettled weather for our neck of the woods, but we’re still not overly excited about rain chances.
Scattered showers will build into the picture Wednesday and Thursday, courtesy of the aforementioned upper low pressure system. From this distance, rainfall totals are expected to be light (mostly in the 0.10″ to 0.25″ range) and certainly not uniform in nature.
As we head into next weekend and the beginning of October (can you believe it?!), the ridge will expand overhead and lead to a return of quiet and milder times.
Down the road, as mentioned in this week’s long range report, I still would be very suspicious of the warm paint blob shown on most modeling towards mid-October. The thinking here is the negative EPO and positive PNA will begin to do work, leading to a fairly sizable shift in the ‘mean’ pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/23/cruising-into-a-warm-close-to-september-open-to-october-mid-month-changes-brewing/
Sep 22
Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a
The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.
Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.
As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.
Week 1
Week 2
While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.
Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.
In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/22/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/
Sep 21
Updated 09.21.23 @ 7:46a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/21/video-only-a-couple-exceptions-to-an-otherwise-very-quiet-couple-of-weeks/
Sep 20
Updated 09.20.23 @ 7:33a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/20/video-case-of-the-haves-and-have-nots/
Sep 19
Updated 09.19.23 @ 5a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/19/video-generally-a-quiet-and-mild-pattern-sunday-exception/