Dec 04
A fascinating case study lies in front of us as we go through the next couple of weeks. This evening’s video update dives deeper.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/04/wednesday-evening-long-range-update/
Dec 04
After a gloomy stretch of weather, the sunshine will make a return appearance today.
While some patchy freezing fog is possible tonight (lows will fall into the upper 20s to around 30°), this shouldn’t be a widespread problem into Thursday morning.
Our quiet stretch of weather will continue into the weekend. A fast moving system will scoot off to our south Thursday evening into Friday while reinforcing chilly air blows by to our northeast. We’ll be in between both systems and the end result will be a continued stretch of dry weather along with moderating temperatures into the weekend.
As high pressure nudges southeast into Saturday, this will be the better of the 2 weekend days, including the most sunshine. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 40s.
With a return southwesterly air flow developing Sunday, temperatures will be even milder (highs in the low to mid 50s), but clouds will increase and drizzle/ light rain will follow by evening.
Light showers will continue into Monday morning, but this won’t be a significant event. Rainfall totals should be heaviest across the eastern sections of the Ohio Valley (amounts greater than 0.50″) with lighter totals for immediate central Indiana of generally less than one half inch.
That’s when things get a little more interesting. A secondary area of low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. As this takes place, colder air will be pouring into the state on gusty northwest winds. The “backside” precipitation will likely transition to light snow Tuesday before ending. While early indications don’t suggest this will be a significant event, we’ll keep an eye on it. The bigger story will be the transient shot of arctic air. Temperatures will fall into the 10s Tuesday with those gusty winds.
With unfavorable teleconnections and the MJO rumbling into Phase 3, this cold shot won’t hold and a milder pattern will likely return by the second half of next week. That’s when we’ll be track our next wet weather maker…
Make it a great Wednesday! We’ll have our next video update posted later this evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/04/sunshine-and-moderating-temperatures-return-changeable-weather-next-week/
Dec 03
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/03/video-quiet-now-but-interesting-times-ahead-next-week/
Dec 02
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/02/video-week-ahead-outlook-what-awaits-for-mid-month/
Dec 02
For those that may not have had an opportunity to review our December Outlook over the busy Thanksgiving weekend, you can do so here.
This morning, we wanted to again review our forecast and provide further context behind our overall active, warmer than normal call for the month as a whole.
Before digging in to those additional details, here’s our 2019 December Forecast:
The “baseline” of this slightly-moderately milder than normal December is due to what appears to be the tendency of the MJO to run into the warmer phases (remember, Phases 3-5 this time of year argue for warmer than normal conditions across the East). The most updated MJO forecast continues to stay the course here.
At least through mid-December, the PNA and EPO are also forecast to be in phases that would support warmer than normal conditions across our portion of the country in the overall sense.
This isn’t to say that we won’t have cold and snow to deal with at times this month. We just believe the colder, wintry conditions that may present themselves will be transitional and that warmth will win out at the end of the day.
As we look ahead, there’s reason to believe other factors will come into play that will begin to change the pattern towards one that’s more suited for prolonged cold around, or just before, Christmas. Furthermore, despite the relative warmth forecast for the month of December, we remain firm on the idea of a colder, snowier than normal winter season.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/02/more-december-rumblings-mjo-pna-epo-dont-favor-sustained-cold-yet/
Dec 01
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/01/video-rain-mixes-with-snow-later-today/
Nov 30
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/30/video-december-outlook/
Nov 29
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/29/video-heavy-rain-arrives-saturday-walking-through-the-1st-week-of-december/
Nov 27
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/27/video-winds-slowly-diminish-tonight-unsettled-weather-pattern-continues/
Nov 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/26/video-short-term-update-on-our-high-wind-event-fresh-december-ideas/