Updated 12.10.22 @ 5a
It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen the kind of alignment of pattern drivers in favor of cold, wintry weather for the heart of the holiday season. The reasoning for such has been outlined in previous posts so we won’t bore you with rehashing those details again this morning.
Simply put, it continues to look like a progressively colder pattern over the upcoming week to 10 days, that also includes plenty of storms. As colder air filters southeast, these storms will take on an increasingly wintry flavor. Potential is very much alive for a period of bitterly cold, arctic air to get involved in the pattern to close December or open January- on the heels of the stormy regime. Prospects for a White Christmas continue to look well above average this year for a good chunk of the country, including right here in central Indiana.
After a series of fairly weak and insignificant systems, a much more impactful storm will blow across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A period of heavy rain will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds and a significant temperature hit during this period. It’s this system that ultimately will be responsible for ushering in the lead wave of a colder, more wintry pattern moving forward.
We’ll likely continue to see wild swings in the operational guidance over the next couple weeks. That’s common during big pattern transitions. The most intriguing item longer term will be if we can get the MJO into a more amplified state, and, if so, into the traditional cold phases to close December and open January. Much more on that later…