Updated 12.23.22 @ 7:58a
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December 2022 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/23/video-long-range-update-and-short-term-look-at-our-next-snow-maker/
Dec 22
VIDEO: Blizzard Conditions Into Friday; Another Snow Maker Arrives Just After Christmas…
Updated 12.22.22 @ 5:54p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/video-blizzard-conditions-into-friday-another-snow-maker-arrives-just-after-christmas/
Dec 22
Client Brief: Use This Morning To Finalize Prep For Blizzard Conditions And Dangerous Cold Tonight – Christmas Eve…
Updated 12.22.22 @ 7:40a
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures
When: Late this afternoon through Christmas Eve
Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).
Wind: NW 15-25 MPH, shifting to the WSW and increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Severe
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Light rain is overspreading central Indiana this morning as moisture is slowly pulled northward ahead of the approaching arctic cold front. That arctic front is still expected to plow across the state this afternoon (just after lunchtime across western IN, between 3p and 4p for Indianapolis, and by 7p – 8p for our far eastern IN neighbors). Once the front hits, you’ll notice a dramatic wind shift to the northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH with higher gusts, along with a temperature plummet. We’ll likely see temperatures fall more than 20° in less than 90 minutes once the arctic front passes.
As all of this is taking shape, a wave of low pressure will move from southwest IN late afternoon into eastern MI by Friday morning. Long time Hoosiers know that’s a classic track to deposit a nice snowstorm around these parts. Rain will change to snow in the city around, or just after, 4p and we’ll notice the swath of snow growing in overall coverage and intensity as the low pressure system deepens. Periods of heavy snow can be expected at times tonight.
Meanwhile, winds will continue to increase to 25-35 MPH sustained with gusts to 50 MPH tonight, continuing through the day Friday and into the first portion of Christmas Eve morning. These persistent strong winds won’t only potentially lead to power outages, but continuous blowing and drifting issues through the aforementioned period. Blizzard and whiteout conditions will continue at times. Snow removal efforts will likely have to continue into Christmas Eve to account for the severe blowing and drifting on area roadways, especially north-south roadways. While the heavy snow will come to an end early Friday morning, light snow and blowing snow will persist through the day Friday and into early Christmas Eve morning.
Finally, the dangerous cold is going to be a big problem with this multi-faceted winter storm. After we fall to below zero Friday morning, highs on Friday likely won’t make it back much above 0°. Add in the wind and wind chill values of more than 30° below zero can be expected.
Confidence: High
Next Update: This evening (video discussion)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/client-brief-use-this-morning-to-finalize-prep-for-blizzard-conditions-and-dangerous-cold-tonight-christmas-eve/
Dec 21
Detailed Video Discussion On The Blizzard Conditions Ahead And The Longer Range January Pattern Drivers…
Updated 12.21.22 @ 6:42p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/detailed-video-discussion-on-the-blizzard-conditions-ahead-and-the-longer-range-january-pattern-drivers/
Dec 21
Client Brief: Dangerous Cold & Blizzard Conditions Arrive Thursday Night Into Friday…
Updated 12.21.22 @ 1:31p
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures
When: Thursday PM through Christmas Eve
Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).
Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Severe
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Precipitation is anticipated to overspread central IN Thursday morning in the form of a light cold rain. Light rain will continue into the early afternoon hours with temperatures ranging anywhere from the mid to upper 30s. The arctic front will arrive into the city, itself around 4p to 5p and this is when we expect rain to quickly change to snow. As this takes place, surface low pressure is expected to ride northeast from southwest IN into northwester/ north-central Ohio, allowing a blossoming area of more widespread, heavier snow to fall across the region Thursday evening, continuing through the overnight period. To make matters more hazardous, temperatures will fall from the aforementioned mid-upper 30s early afternoon into the single digits by 9p to 10p. The rapid temperature fall will allow any/ all moisture to freeze and further complicate travel with the increasing snowfall rates.
Forecast models this afternoon are split between (2) camps: the weaker and more progressive NAM and European, and the more “revved up” GFS and Canadian guidance. With that said, we’ll lean towards the European/ NAM blend to build our snowfall forecast below (good luck measuring whatever falls ;-)), but will continue to keep a close eye on trends through the evening and tonight. Side note: We’ll have a more detailed video discussion posted this evening that will dive into the very latest data trends with our current storm, look ahead to another snow maker on deck early next week, a significant warm-up, and subsequent return of cold, wintry conditions.
If all of this wasn’t enough, winds will increase in speed and turn gusty through the evening Thursday, continuing into and through the day on Friday, as well as Christmas Eve. Periodic gusts upwards of 40 to 50 MPH will lead to severe blowing and drifting snow, whiteout and blizzard conditions during this period. We strongly advise against traveling Thursday evening through Friday. “Wrap around” lighter snow and snow showers are expected to continue through the day Friday with temperatures struggling to make it much above the 0° mark. Severe blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions will continue Friday to combine with the dangerous cold.
The prolonged nature of such strong winds, combined with expected snowfall amounts will continue to lead to hazardous travel through Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, winds aren’t expected to diminish until Christmas morning. By this point, all eyes will be focused on the next snow maker due in here late Christmas night or early Monday in the form of a clipper system.
More on all of this later this evening in our updated video discussion.
Confidence: High
Next Update: By 7p Wednesday (video discussion)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/client-brief-dangerous-cold-blizzard-conditions-arrive-thursday-night-into-friday/
Dec 21
Wednesday Morning Notes On Our Upcoming Winter Storm…
Updated 12.21.22 @ 6:40a I. We still have another 24 hours where weather won’t have any sort of impact across central Indiana. Dry conditions will hold through early Thursday morning.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/wednesday-morning-notes-on-our-upcoming-winter-storm/
Dec 20
VIDEO: Blizzard Conditions Develop Friday Into Christmas Eve; Another Snow System Likely Follows Monday…
Updated 12.20.22 @ 7:46a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/20/video-blizzard-conditions-develop-friday-into-christmas-eve-another-snow-system-likely-follows-monday/
Dec 19
Client Brief: Blizzard Conditions Develop Friday Into Christmas Eve…
Updated 12.19.22 @ 5:46p
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures
When: Thursday PM through Saturday
Temperatures: Falling from the lower 40s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).
Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Severe
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Normally, we wait another 24 hours closer to the onset of the storm before we initiate our official Client Briefs, but the combination of the intensity of this storm along with the timeframe when many folks will have travel plans, we wanted to get this product out earlier than normal. We strongly encourage having travel completed by Thursday evening.
In short, a severe winter storm continues to look like it’ll take aim on the region as we navigate the day Thursday. Rain is expected to develop during the day before mixing with and transitioning to snow Thursday night. Snow will become heavy at times Thursday night into the day Friday. Initially, this will be a heavy, wet snow, but as the arctic airmass engulfs the area, the “paste-like” snow will quickly transition to powder. Needless to say, the standard 10:1 measurements won’t work with this storm as the fluff factor kicks into high gear.
Unfortunately as this transition in snow type is taking place, winds will begin to increase. We anticipate major problems from severe blowing and drifting of snow by Friday, continuing through Christmas Eve. During the aforementioned time period, wind gusts in excess of 55 MPH will be possible. This will lead to impassable roadways across many areas, especially within the heavier snow zones below. Speaking of snow, we need another 24 – 36 hours before we can get more specific than included below. Areas across southern and eastern IN not currently within the “heavy snow zones” will still see several inches of accumulation and their own blowing/ drifting issues. Blizzard conditions can be expected across the entire area from a combination of the falling snow, snow already on the ground, and damaging wind gusts Friday into Christmas Eve. Drifts will be measured in feet, especially in the “open country.”
I’d like to encourage everyone to prepare for the bitterly cold airmass that will also grab headlines. Be thinking of ways to keep warm should you lose power. Unfortunately, with the expected wind, power outages will become an issue across the region. Please take the time now to inspect your winter storm safety kit and heed all products from the National Weather Service.
Confidence: High
Next Update: Tuesday morning (video discussion)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/19/client-brief-blizzard-conditions-develop-friday-into-christmas-eve/
Dec 19
VIDEO: Severe Winter Storm Takes Aim On The Region Late Week; January Pattern Discussion…
Updated 12.19.22 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/19/video-severe-winter-storm-takes-aim-on-the-region-late-week-january-pattern-discussion/
Dec 18
Sunday Evening Thoughts On Late Week – Christmas Weekend…
Updated 12.18.22 @ 8:42p I. No weather-related troubles are expected as we navigate the next few days. Weak high pressure will support dry, calm, and seasonably cold weather through midweek.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/18/sunday-evening-thoughts-on-late-week-christmas-weekend/