The “hot dome” will shift to the Four Corners in the upcoming week. A much cooler and less humid airmass will infiltrate the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, into the Northeast.
The upcoming 7-days will feature unseasonably cool air from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Meanwhile, significant heat will bake the West.
A much drier pattern will emerge in the upcoming forecast period for a large chunk of the country.
We forecast rainfall amounts to run around 0.50″ or less across most of central IN in the upcoming week.
Forecast Period: 06.13.21 through 06.20.21
While not AS hot and sultry as Saturday, today will once again flirt with 90° across most of central Indiana under a mostly sunny sky. If you’re a fan of the heat, enjoy today as a transition in the overall pattern will deliver a much less humid and cooler airmass to our neck of the woods throughout the majority of the upcoming week (and what is looking more and more like beyond). We’ll track two cold fronts that will push through the region between Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Both of these frontal passages should be mostly uneventful from a precipitation perspective (only an isolated shower or storm is expected). As we look ahead, somewhat better chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms look poised to impact our region Friday (30% to 40% aerial coverage) as yet another cold front moves through. This will set us up for drier conditions once again for Father’s Day weekend.
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Before we look ahead to the 2nd half of this month and early July, our weekend will start off with the same oppressive humidity and tropical feel we’ve dealt with all week. Additionally, another round of “splash and dash” thunderstorms can be expected today and Saturday — most notably occurring during the afternoon and evening hours. With all of that said, coverage of storms should be less today and Saturday than what the rest of the week has included.
While some neighborhoods won’t see a drop of rain, others could see a quick 0.50″ to 1″ due to the moisture rich environment in place across the region. Officially, we’ll call for most central Indiana rain gauges to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.75″ over the course of the upcoming 48 hours. Sunday continues to look like a mostly dry and very warm day (remember, you can always see our most up-to-date 7-day outlook for central Indiana on the home page). We continue to target a frontal passage Tuesday that will offer up a surge of much lower humidity for the balance of the upcoming week.
As we look ahead, there are a few interesting drivers that should battle it out as we progress through the 2nd half of June and look ahead to the Independence Day holiday (where is time going?).
I. East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)- forecast predominantly negative over the upcoming couple of weeks. Cool signal.
II. Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)- pops positive in the short-term (cool signal) before returning negative late month (warm signal).
III. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)- forecast in the “null” phase in the short-term, but does look to get a bit more amplified as we close out the month of June and open up July. Phase 1 late June correlates to near/ slightly above normal temperatures across the Ohio Valley. Phase 2 in early July features widespread cool weather from the central Plains and points east and south.
Given the above, it would seem the cooler period next week will moderate as we move into Week 2, but given the fight between the PNA and EPO, I don’t envision any sort of significant or long-lasting heat, locally, as we wrap up the month of June. A combination of ensemble guidance would tend to agree with this.
June 11-18
June 18-25
After a drier stretch through the short-term, it looks like the pattern will turn more active to close out the month. On that note, we’re also continuing to keep close eyes on potential tropical “mischief” next week in the Gulf of Mexico. The general consensus early on is that tropical moisture would potentially impact the central and eastern Gulf and interior South late next week/ next weekend, but this is still early.
Week 1 precipitation anomalies
Week 2 precipitation anomalies
As we move forward, we’ll keep close eyes on the MJO activity. Should things get into Phase 2 (as suggested above), this will lead to a large part of the country cooler than normal for the Independence Day holiday… Stay tuned.
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The upper pattern this week will feature a dominant upper ridge across the northern tier, centered over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a stubborn upper low will move slowly northeast out of the southern Plains early and mid week.
The immediate western seaboard will run below to well below normal this week, while the upper Plains into the Great Lakes run well above average.
Well above normal rainfall can be expected through the period across the Ohio Valley, TN Valley, and Mid Atlantic regions.
We forecast between 1.5″ and 2″ on a widespread basis across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier amounts with this setup.
Forecast Period: 06.06.21 through 06.13.21
Our weather pattern will be dominated by a stubborn upper low moving slowly northeast out of the southern Plains. Eventually, this upper low will get entangled in the westerlies and begin to lose influence on our weather towards the tail end of the week. Before that, we’ll notice a rather marked difference in the type of airmass this week compared to what we’ve seen of late. A deep tropical flow, straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, will bring moisture-rich air into the Ohio Valley, including dew points that will approach the oppressive level (65° to 70°). While daytime highs will be kept cooler with the clouds and rain around, overnight lows will be elevated with such a humid airmass in place. A daily dose of showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this pattern- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the humidity, locally heavy rain is a good bet at times. While coverage of showers and storms should slowly begin to diminish towards Friday and Saturday, we’ll still keep mention of scattered storms in our forecast into next weekend.
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