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February 2020 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/12/video-short-term-update-on-tonight-thursday/
Feb 12
VIDEO: Heavy Snow Builds In This Afternoon; Arctic Front Hits Tomorrow…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/12/video-heavy-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-arctic-front-hits-tomorrow/
Feb 11
Client Brief: Time To Gas Up The Snow Plows…
Type: Impactful Wintry Weather
What: Accumulating snow and sleet
When: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
Temperatures: Lower 30s falling into the 10s by Thursday evening
Wind: Southeast 10-15 MPH Wednesday afternoon shifting to the north Wednesday night and northwest Thursday. Winds will gust 20-30 MPH Thursday evening.
Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate by Thursday evening
Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required
A busy 48 hours awaits for central Indiana as a winter storm begins to impact the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue spreading over the region this evening and give way to a lowering and thickening cloud deck overnight and Wednesday morning. This is all thanks to a developing area of low pressure over the Ark-la-tex region. This surface low will track northeast into the TN Valley Wednesday and into the central Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Long time residents of the Hoosier state know this is a favorable track for impactful wintry weather across these parts and this will be no exception.
Moisture will begin to lift northeast during the day Wednesday and reach the I-70 corridor around or just after lunchtime. Across the southern half of Indiana, this moisture should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain (perhaps a bit of sleet initially as the precipitation moves in). However, further north, trouble will ensue. The air won’t only be colder at the surface, but the depth of cold air will be much deeper. This will result in precipitation that should predominantly fall in the form of a sleet-snow “concoction” along and north of the I-70 corridor where we think an axis of 2″ to 4″ of snow/ sleet will accumulate with this storm- including Indianapolis. Further north, less sleet is anticipated and will result in heavier snowfall totals. The northern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points north to include Lafayette, Kokomo, Logansport, Ft. Wayne, and Muncie can expect 4″ to 6″ of snow with this storm system. Most of that will fall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with additional lighter snowfall accumulation occurring with “wrap around” snow showers and embedded squalls Thursday afternoon into evening. (The Indiana Snowbelt (you know who you are :-)) can expect additional heavier snow accumulation, courtesy of lake effect).
A brief, but potent shot of arctic air will pour into the region Thursday afternoon and set us up for widespread single digits by Friday morning, including the threat of some sub-zero temperatures where the heaviest snowpack is laid down.
Confidence: High
Next Update: Wednesday morning
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/11/client-brief-time-to-gas-up-the-snow-plows/
Feb 11
VIDEO: Winter Storm Inbound For The Ohio Valley Wednesday Into Thursday; Shot Of Arctic Air Follows…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/11/video-winter-storm-inbound-for-the-ohio-valley-wednesday-into-thursday-shot-of-arctic-air-follows/
Feb 10
Evening Review Of Data; Early Idea Of Heaviest Snow Axis Wednesday-Thursday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/10/evening-review-of-data-early-idea-of-heaviest-snow-axis-wednesday-thursday/
Feb 10
VIDEO: Analyzing Mid-Week Winter Storm Threat; MUCH Colder To Close The Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/10/video-analyzing-mid-week-winter-storm-threat-much-colder-to-close-the-week/
Feb 09
Burst Of Snow This Afternoon; Storms And “Rumors” Of Storms This Upcoming Week…
The day is starting off on a cold note with some fog and low clouds around, but at least we’re dry (for now). That will begin to change here in a few hours as a burst of snow moves into the city around lunchtime. A brief period of moderate to heavy snow may whiten the ground just north of the city before a transition to a cold rain for the better part of the afternoon.
Further north, cold air will hang on longer and a more significant period of snow is expected through the afternoon and early evening. In fact, periods of heavy snow can be expected, including snowfall rates up to 1″ per hour at times. If you have travel plans to places such as Ft. Wayne, South Bend, or Logansport, we’d recommend preparing for slick travel and snow covered roads can be expected. This will be a wet and heavy snow. Pavement impacts will require salting and plowing across the northern 1/3 of the state this afternoon into the evening.
Here’s our snowfall forecast today:
The attention will then shift to a period of moderate to heavy rain through the evening and into the overnight across the I-70 corridor. By the time all is said and done Monday morning, widespread 1″ to 1.5″ is expected with the passage of this storm system. Good news? Most of the rain should be south of our area by the morning rush Monday.
High pressure will then settle into the Ohio Valley as we move into Monday evening and Tuesday, allowing a briefly quieter period of weather to arrive on the scene.
By this time, however, all eyes will shift to the southwest and our next storm system that should be brewing. While models differ on the specifics with this storm, the overall upper pattern suggests we need to remain on our toes with respect for the potential of additional winter weather stretching from the mid-MS Valley Wednesday, Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday, and interior Northeast Thursday into Thursday night. A brief, but potent shot of arctic air would follow to close the work week- especially if we can get some snow down.
Should snow get laid down with this system across the OHV region, a cold arctic high would be capable of sending temperatures into the single digits to close the work week.
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/09/burst-of-snow-this-afternoon-storms-and-rumors-of-storms-this-upcoming-week/
Feb 08
VIDEO: Couple Additional Rounds Of Snow This Afternoon-Sunday Afternoon; Looking Ahead At The Upcoming Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/08/video-couple-additional-rounds-of-snow-this-afternoon-sunday-afternoon-looking-ahead-at-the-upcoming-week/
Feb 07
VIDEO: Accumulating Snow Impacts The Southern Half Of The State Overnight-Saturday Morning; Looking Ahead To Another Busy Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/07/video-accumulating-snow-impacts-the-southern-half-of-the-state-overnight-saturday-morning-looking-ahead-to-another-busy-week/
Feb 06
Long Range Update: Latest EPO/ MJO Implications…
Before we dig into the late-February pattern, there’s no let-up in sight with respect to our current active weather pattern. Just next week alone, we’re tracking (3) systems:
I. Sunday
II. Wednesday
III. Thursday-Friday
This is all part of the big battle taking place between a persistent southeast ridge and western trough. The tight thermal gradient between these features will help “fuel” continued active times, and above average precipitation next week. As mentioned this morning, at times we’ll have to deal with bouts of moderate-heavy rain, and at others, sleet, snow, and freezing rain.
Looking ahead, we continue to build our longer range forecast by using “base ingredients” that feature a 50-50 split of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and EPO (East Pacific Oscillation).
The MJO maintains a warm look, rolling things into Phase 5-6 over the next few weeks.
As you know by now, these are warm phases- especially across the eastern portion of the country.
The “saving grace” for fans of at least being on the playing field for a chance of wintry weather in such warm MJO phases is the negative EPO. There’s great model agreement that this negative EPO will continue into the middle part of the month and this will keep us on our toes for wintry implications as storms track through the region. Conversely, there’s reason to buy into a “blow torch” regime to close the month, as the EPO flips positive and combines with the Phase 5-6 of the MJO.
To no surprise, given the above, we see the new European Weeklies showing a warming trend (after the fight over the upcoming week) for late-February.
The JMA Weeklies from this morning (for the Weeks 3-4 time frame) would agree.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/06/long-range-update-latest-epo-mjo-implications/