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February 2020 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-timing-the-arrival-of-rain-and-amounts-looking-ahead-to-early-march-changes/
Feb 16
Meteorological Spring A Couple Weeks Away, But Trends Suggest Winter’s Not Done…
With the exception of a rain maker blowing through the region Monday evening into Tuesday, we’re heading into a relatively quiet weather pattern for the upcoming 7-8 days. A couple of days of well below average temperatures will follow Tuesday’s cold front before weekend moderation takes place. With the shift in the pattern (albeit likely only for a brief period of time), we thought we’d look ahead to what may loom to close February and head into March.
As we’ve discussed in the past, the EPO and MJO are the keys to the pattern, and will continue to be through March. Some of the recent trends with both features would suggest cold is going to fight back as we head into late Feb and early March (spike positive in the EPO also boosts our confidence the pattern will warm over the weekend and into early parts of Week 2). This would likely be met with a return of an active storm track through our neck of the woods.
Both the GEFS and EPS paint a developing negative EPO as we close the month and welcome March. Secondly, the MJO is looking more and more like it’ll move out of the traditional winter warm phases and towards a much colder Phase 8. Collectively, these features should give pause to anyone thinking the kick-off to meteorological spring will be met with dry, warm weather. In reality, the opposite would more than likely result- stormy with colder than normal weather.
This is also the time we begin leaning more heavily on the influence a negative NAO can have on the pattern. Should this teleconnection get into the negative territory in March, then we’d be talking about a potential colder pattern lasting for 10-14 days towards one that would reload to result in colder, wintry conditions lasting into April. While not there yet, it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on in the coming days and weeks.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/meteorological-spring-a-couple-weeks-away-but-trends-suggest-winters-not-done/
Feb 15
Week Ahead Outlook: Light Snow For Some This Evening; Tuesday Rain Followed By Another Blast Of Cold Air…
It’s another frigid start to the day with widespread lower to middle 10s across central Indiana. Even colder air resides across the eastern Ohio Valley with single digits over the fresh snowpack.
Today will feature quiet weather until later this evening when a weak clipper-like system slides southeast. This feature will help increase our cloud cover and result in a few light snow showers across the northern half of the state. Those snow showers may make it as far south as the I-70 corridor by evening before dissipating. Not expecting much, if any accumulation, locally, across central Indiana.
Quiet conditions will return as we open up the new week, but a fast moving storm system will result in increasing cloudiness through the day Monday and rain returning Monday evening into Tuesday.
In general, we anticipate this system to deposit somewhere between 0.50″ and 0.75″ Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Much colder air will follow the cold frontal passage for midweek, including a stretch of highs in the upper 20s and 30s and lows in the 10s.
High pressure will supply dry and sunny weather as we get set to close the work week, and as we look ahead, it doesn’t appear as if our next storm system will impact the region until the 2nd half of next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/week-ahead-outlook-light-snow-for-some-this-evening-tuesday-rain-followed-by-another-blast-of-cold-air/
Feb 14
VIDEO: Long Range Update Into Late Feb/ Early March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-long-range-update-into-late-feb-early-march/
Feb 13
Arctic Front Blows Into Town…
Periods of light snow will continue to move across central Indiana this morning. This is in advance of an arctic cold front that will blow through the state this afternoon. We’ve received reports of anywhere from an additional 1″ to 2″ associated with this wave of light snow during the overnight and early morning (please continue to send us your snow reports to bill@indywx.com or via Twitter @indywx)! The “system” snow will come to an end by early afternoon and give way to scattered snow showers/ localized squalls behind the arctic front into the evening.
The big story today will be the falling temperatures from around freezing (now) into the 10s by evening. Wind chill values will plummet to sub-zero levels by evening as arctic air pours into the region.
A couple of lingering snow showers will continue tomorrow morning (primarily across northeast and east-central Indiana) before sunshine takes hold. It’ll be a cold day with highs only expected to top out in the lower 20s after a low in the single digits for most of central Indiana. (Close to 20° below average for this time of year). The good news if you’re not a fan of the arctic air? Temperatures will moderate through the weekend and into early next week.
We’ll be back later this evening with a fresh long range update.
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