I. Upper level energy will pinwheel across the region tonight into Wednesday and result in helping rain showers (this afternoon and evening) transition to snow showers (tonight and Wednesday).
A couple of heavier snow squalls could result in a quick coating to less than 1″ of snow for some areas overnight into Wednesday.
II. The next item we continue to monitor has to do with an initial piece of energy that will scoot across the Ohio Valley Friday. This is ahead of a more significant storm that will likely develop over the weekend and models continue to fluctuate on how they handle things. For now, we’ll maintain a rain/ snow mix Friday, but simply can’t get more specific than that. There are ways this could deposit a stripe of accumulating wet snow for some of the region, but it’s premature to try and nail down where this may occur.
III. We also have to continue to keep a close eye on what transpires Sunday. We favor one surface low tracking along the Ohio River into the Appalachians before a secondary low takes over along the Mid Atlantic coastline Monday. Again, a swath of wet snow north of the low’s track Sunday into early Monday.
IV. While we should see warmth eject out of the southern Plains in the Week 2 time frame, the large majority of data says this will only be temporary and that cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the balance of the upcoming several weeks. With late season high latitude blocking in place it’s hard to disagree with that idea. Once blocking sets up (especially late in the season), it can be like “pulling teeth” to get any sort of sustained warmth. Just an idea here.
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Model data continues to show this idea has merit and now we’ll have to handle the individual storms as they come. As we’d expect late in the winter, challenges abound, but this is a pattern that has potential. Can we turn potential into reality? That’s the question that will be answered over the next couple weeks.
The next item on the agenda will arrive Friday afternoon into Friday night. It, too, should spread snow across a portion of the Ohio Valley. With this being in the Day 6 time period, expect fine tuning as we move through the upcoming week.
Finally, a third system will impact the area about this time next week, and it’s this system that appears to be the most significant of the group. Far too early to get detailed, but it certainly warrants our attention.
The overall pattern we’ll “enjoy” over the next couple of weeks is one that’s been lacking for the better part of the past few winters. With blocking in place, storm systems trying to lift into the Great Lakes will be “forced” south and result in an active time of things around these parts- including the east coast, as well, over the better part of the upcoming 10-15 days.
Our next storm system will arrive Monday. Clouds will increase overnight and showers (mostly light) will arrive on the scene during the day. Rainfall amounts aren’t expected to be significant this go around (in general, 0.25″ to 0.40″ for most). Winds will turn strong and gusty during the day Monday, continuing Tuesday and Wednesday.
Colder air will get pulled into the Ohio Valley Tuesday evening and as upper level energy moves overhead, mixed rain and snow showers will develop Tuesday night through Thursday morning.
By next Thursday morning, widespread lows in the 20s can be expected.