June 2017 archive

Jun 10

Developing Hot Pattern Doesn’t Last; Cooler And Wetter Times Loom…

Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot.  We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.

Expanding upper ridge means hot times loom late weekend into early next week.

However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one.  This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.

The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.

The 10-day GEFS ‘mean’ is a beautiful sight as moisture returns.

Updated 7-day out later this afternoon!  Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/10/developing-hot-pattern-doesnt-last-cooler-and-wetter-times-loom/

Jun 08

VIDEO: Ready to heat things up this weekend?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/08/video-ready-to-heat-things-up-this-weekend/

Jun 07

Another Pleasant Day Then It’s Time To Sweat…

Highlights:

  • Another pleasant day ahead!
  • Dry weather continues.
  • The heat is on!

Dry Weather Continues; Summer Feel Develops…We’ll enjoy one more very pleasant and refreshing day Thursday, including plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and below normal temperatures.  Many central Indiana neighborhoods will begin the day in the mid to upper 40s away from the city.  Enjoy the pleasant weather while we’ve got it!

As we progress into the weekend, temperatures and humidity will begin to increase.  By this time next week, overnight lows will be closer to today’s official (IND) high of 72°.  One word: YUCK.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, but most, if not all, of these look to remain confined to the northern third of the state.  That’s the only chance of moisture until we rumble into the middle of next week.  In addition to the continued bone dry conditions, unseasonably hot weather will build in over the Mid West and result in highs of 90°, or higher, Sunday into early next week.

Looking into the longer range, a more active and increasingly wet regime looks to return just past mid-month.  While the early season heat and dry weather will be significant, thankfully it doesn’t look like it’ll last…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/07/another-pleasant-day-then-its-time-to-sweat/

Jun 06

VIDEO: Pleasant Weather Gives Way To Weekend Heat…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/06/video-pleasant-weather-gives-way-to-weekend-heat/

Jun 05

Dry Times Remain: Briefly Cooler Then The Heat Is On…

Our overall weather pattern will be dominated by short-term cooling, significant warming by the weekend, and dry times continuing.

We’re noticing a significant change to the brand of our air mass this evening as a northerly wind is taking hold and helping to usher in lower dew points.  This is only the beginning of a significantly cooler stretch of weather that will take us through the day Tuesday, continuing into Thursday.  While the upper level low will drift south into the Northeast, our region will be dominated by a northerly flow and a much cooler, refreshing air mass into the latter portions of the work week.

In fact, we forecast highs Wednesday to only top the upper 60s, and this will be a good 10°-15° below average for June 7th.  Lows each morning through Friday will start out in the lower-middle 50s for the city, itself, but some outlying neighborhoods will fall deep into the 40s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June!

High pressure will dominate our weather through late week, continuing the overall drier than normal theme.

Models slowly begin to increase moisture levels as we move into the weekend and an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop, but widespread rains of significance aren’t anticipated for the foreseeable future.

The bigger story by the weekend will be a developing hot weather pattern.  Temperatures will be flirting with the 90° mark as early as Sunday and Monday.  Instead of running 10°-15° below normal such as midweek, temperatures by early next week will be running 5°-10° above normal and very much like the “heart” of summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/05/dry-times-remain-briefly-cooler-then-the-heat-is-on/

Jun 04

Storms May Rumble In Later Today; Cooler For Midweek…

We’ve enjoyed a warm and beautiful weekend, and most of Sunday will follow that pleasant them.  However, a cold front will drop south into the state later today and this “trigger” mechanism, combined with the heating of the day, will likely spark a broken line of thunderstorms.  These storms will sink south into central Indiana later this evening, and a couple of storms could become strong.

Modeled radar shows how things may evolve later this evening, including time stamps at 5p, 8p, and 10p.

Most significant rainfall will occur across the northern half of the state, including a couple of 1″+ totals in the heavier storms.

As we push into the midweek stretch, cooler, refreshing air will take up residence across the region.  Temperatures will run significantly cooler than average, including lows in the upper 40s for some Wednesday and Thursday morning and highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Dry weather will continue, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/04/storms-may-rumble-in-later-today-cooler-for-midweek/

Jun 03

Overall Dry And Pleasant Weather Continues…

Highlights:

  • Scattered late-day storms Sunday
  • Dry weather returns
  • Cooler next week

Scattered Strong Storms Late Sunday…Our beautiful weekend weather will continue into Sunday.  Expect a mostly dry day along with warm and humid conditions.  A cold front will approach late in the day and we still think a broken line of thunderstorms will slip south into central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night.  A couple of these could become strong, but a widespread severe weather event isn’t anticipated.

We’ll quickly get back to dry conditions as we open the new work week and another extended spell of rain-free conditions should carry us through the balance of the upcoming forecast period.  Additionally, a notable cooling trend will engulf the region.  With dry skies, low humidity, and highs in the lower 70s it’ll be picture-perfect to spend time outdoors.

Moisture will begin to return next weekend and, accordingly, we’ll introduce scattered showers and thunderstorms into our forecast next Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/03/overall-dry-and-pleasant-weather-continues/

Jun 01

Drier Trend Continues This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Dry close to the work week
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Slightly cooler next week

Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday.  In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter.  Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.

The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday.  As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.

The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had.  This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward.  Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected.  For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week.  Not bad, at all, by June standards.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/01/drier-trend-continues-this-weekend/

Jun 01

JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

  • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
  • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
  • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

Week 1:

The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

Week 2:

The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

Weeks 3-4

While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/01/jma-weeklies-cool-gives-way-to-more-seasonal-conditions/

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