Highlights:
- Shower and storm chances increase Wednesday night
- Coolest air so far this season to close the work week
- Warm push of air early next week
Nice Today Before Wednesday Night Storms…Mid and high level cloudiness will continue to scoot through the Ohio Valley today. While we noted a few sprinkles during the predawn hours, the air remains dry and we should be rain-free today with increasing PM sunshine.
Wednesday will turn increasingly breezy as the day progresses and a cold front will help kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into the early morning hours Thursday. Behind the front, the coolest air so far this season will press southeast and set us up for a chilly close to the week.
The cool air won’t stay around long as we flip our air flow back to the south over the weekend. Showers are a good bet Sunday followed by a gusty south wind and a summer-like high in the lower 80s Monday.
A couple of notes: It’s beginning to be that time of year again when we have to get used to the wind. As the jet continues to mature, storm systems will become more frequent as we go deeper into fall. Strong winds are a given and the increasingly busy nature of the pattern is a signal of changes brewing. While we’re still a couple weeks away from a wholesale pattern change, don’t be surprised if we undergo a rather dramatic flip in the pattern as October gives way to November. This sure doesn’t look like last year in any way, and, in fact, it’s easy to argue it’s the exact opposite when it comes to early season cold and potentially wintry weather…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
Tuesday will remain rain-free across the region, along with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels (mid 70s after a low in the lower 50s).
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive; generally 0.10″-0.25″ during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
The cool air flowing in behind the front is impressive though. In fact, highs both Thursday and Friday will likely only reach the lower 60s (if that).
Despite the chilly air that will be with us to wrap up the work week, ensemble data is in excellent agreement on a significant warmer than average regime developing under a big eastern ridge in the 6-10 day. This will likely promote highs into the lower 80s next week for a few days. Impressive, no doubt, considering we’ll be rumbling through the second half of October by that point.
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.