May 2016 archive

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) The month of May has gotten off to a chilly start and given the period of unseasonably chilly air that looms later this week, it’s safe to say these cool anomalies will grow even cooler. 

The coolest day looks to be Saturday with highs only in the mid 50s.


2.) In the shorter term, we’re keeping an eye on strong-severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening across southern and central parts of the state. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.




Not everyone will see heavy rain amounts today, but a few neighborhoods may deal with localized flooding issues as slow moving heavy storms potentially train over communities. Where this happens, 2″+ rain totals are a good bet by midnight.


3.) Forecast models remain in a state of disagreement concerning late this weekend into early next week. The GFS is particularly bullish on the idea of wet (heavy rain threat), chilly times whereas the European is much drier (and warmer). We’ll keep an eye on things and hope for consistency this afternoon. Speaking of this afternoon, we’ll have our updated 7-day posted later today! Make it a great Tuesday. 

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Protected: Client Long Range Video Update…

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Busy Pattern; Cool Blast Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 2.55.53 PMHighlights:

  • Scattered showers and storms continue
  • Big cool blast looms
  • Renewed wet stretch next week?

Active Times…It’s not so much the amount of rain that we’re seeing, but the overall duration of the gloomy, wet times.  A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped over central parts of the state over the next 72 hours and this will help create periods of showers and thunderstorms through mid week.  Localized heavy rain is possible, but the heavy rain totals certainly won’t fall in a “uniform” fashion.  Tuesday afternoon and evening appears to still offer up a strong to severe thunderstorm chance.

Eventually a cold front will sweep the state Thursday and help usher in a much cooler air mass to wrap up the work week.  An upper level disturbance will follow and provide a period of showers and light rain Friday evening.  A spotty shower may continue Saturday with the much cooler air, but more widespread rains look to build in Sunday into Monday.  There remains a great deal of disagreement on the forecast late in the weekend into early next week, so stay tuned as we fine tune things in the days ahead.

It’s a busy pattern, indeed, friends…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/09/busy-pattern-cool-blast-late-week/

Monday Morning Video Update: Strong Storms Tuesday; Much Colder End To The Week…

An unsettled week ahead will feature periods of more widespread rain and stronger storms at times between now and Wednesday.  We’re focused on Tuesday for the potential of strong to…

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Protected: Long Range Client Video Update And A Word On Summer…

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Unsettled Week; Another Cool Blast Looms…

Screen Shot 2016-05-08 at 8.54.42 AMHighlights:

  • Cool Mother’s Day
  • Periods Of Rain And Storms
  • Another Cool Blast Looms

Have The Rain Gear Handy; Don’t Put Away Those Coats…A “wavy” frontal boundary will remain in our general vicinity over the next few days and be responsible for offering up periods of showers and eventually thunderstorms (as warmer, more humid air surges in Monday).  It’s a “rinse and repeat” pattern this week as daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue.  Models are in agreement on rain amounts of 1.5″-2″ between now and Thursday night, with locally higher amounts.

Eventually, a cold front will sweep through the state Thursday evening and set up a MUCH cooler than normal weekend.  Instability-driven showers are possible Saturday, but the big story will be the unseasonably chilly air over the weekend into early next week.

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Fantastic Friday; Storms Return Saturday Evening…

Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 7.41.04 AMHighlights:

  • Pick of the week is today
  • Evening severe potential Saturday
  • Unsettled stretch continues

Have The Sunglasses Handy Today…Today is easily the pick of the week as high pressure supplies sunshine and a cool start.  With the May sun angle in place, chilly morning lows in the lower 40s will quickly rise into the lower 70s for afternoon highs.

A cold front will approach Saturday and slice into a briefly warm and humid air mass in place across the region.  With highs approaching 80 and dew points surging into the lower 60s, don’t be surprised by strong to severe thunderstorms across central IN during the afternoon and evening hours.

The cold front will slip to our south for Sunday, but remain close enough to continue shower chances across central parts of the state.  It’ll be a much cooler day with a north wind in play.

As we move into the new work week, we’ll continue the active and unsettled theme.  While it won’t rain the entire time, expect numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms through mid week.

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Hang In There Friends…

An upper level low is still impacting our weather this morning, but this feature isn’t wasting any time scooting southeast. In fact, by this afternoon, we should be looking at increasingly sunny skies and temperatures that will slowly recover from the chilly, raw readings of this morning.

With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will recover into the lower 60s today (still below average, but an improvement).


High pressure will build into the region to wrap up the work week and provide a delightful close to what’s been a rather gloomy week. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures into the lower 70s are on tap.

That said, this is still an active weather pattern that will require close attention in the week ahead.

The anamalous trough will “relax” and give way to transient ridging, but there are indications of another trough setting up Days 8-10. Giving the pattern, it’s likely that the aforementioned trough will be deeper (more significant) than what model data currently portrays (image 3).


It’s a rather wet pattern, as well. 7-day rain numbers of 1″-1.5″ seems reasonable with locally heavier totals. 


Our next chance of rain comes Saturday in the form of scattered, mostly PM variety, storms.

More later! Make it a great Thursday! 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/05/hang-in-there-friends/

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