Updated 05.11.22 @ 6a
I. Even in “boring” patterns as a whole, there’s excitement to be found. That isn’t more evident than what we’ll notice today as a “back door” front will blow into the state. Before the front arrives from the east (hence, back door), dew points in the low to middle 70s (jungle-like feel) will combine with temperatures in the mid-80s to push heat indices into the 90° range. By mid-afternoon, we’ll note a wind shift taking hold from the east and a much more comfortable airmass oozing into the state from Ohio. This transition in air masses could spark an afternoon shower or thunderstorm- especially around Indy and points east.
II. After Wednesday’s “excitement,” generally quiet weather will be with us to close out the work week. That will begin to change as we rumble into the weekend. A series of fronts will sweep through the area Saturday (image 1 below) and again Monday (image 2 below). Each of these will deliver a smattering of showers and storms (splash and dash variety), focusing in on Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening into Monday morning for greatest overall coverage. On average, area rain gauges likely accumulate between 0.40” and 0.60” between the (2) systems.
III. The MJO will, undoubtedly, have big impacts on our late May pattern. After remaining in the null phase for the better part of the past few weeks, things are getting quite amplified. What’s most interesting though is the difference between the way the GEFS and European handle things post 5/18. Do we circle back into Phase 7 (would extend the threat of cooler than normal temperatures, locally) or roll into Phase 8 (a warmer pattern for the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley)? Stay tuned. We continue to believe the more transitional regime is most likely as we push into Memorial Day…
