We have scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to deal with today and Monday (along with plenty of dry time, too), but our attention is beginning to shift to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday- particularly Tuesday night.
The SPC has outlined most of the state for a *Slight Risk* of severe thunderstorms Tuesday.
We note surface dew points surge into the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday.
This should be sufficient enough to help fuel a developing thunderstorm cluster in IL Tuesday afternoon/ evening that will likely race eastward with time Tuesday night. We note a strong area of low pressure over the upper Mid West that will “bull-whip” a cold front through the region Tuesday night. This will tap into the available moisture and relative warmth (lower to middle 70s a good bet for highs Tuesday) to continue the storm threat through IN and into western OH during the late evening/ overnight.
All modes of severe weather appear to be in play right now, but we’re particularly concerned about the potential of damaging straight line winds within any thunderstorm complex that develops Tuesday afternoon/ evening. We’ll also have to monitor the potential of discrete cells that develop away from the primary storm complex.
We turn cooler and windy Wednesday.
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Highlights:
- Turning stormy this weekend
- Warm open to the week
- Active times give way to a colder finish to the week
Thunderstorms Develop Tonight…A warm front is lifting through the state this morning and this could spark a few showers as it passes through central IN through the late morning hours. Most of today will be dry before heavier rains and embedded thunderstorms push into the region tonight into Sunday morning. By the way, don’t forget to set those clocks ahead an hour tonight ;-).
Rather unsettled weather will continue through the early and middle portions of the work week, but we caution timing is still up in the air. It’s an active regime that will require fine tuning. As things stand now, we forecast scattered showers and storms Monday and a mostly dry Tuesday. Gusty SW winds will pull anomalous warmth into the region Tuesday before storms blow into the state late Tuesday night/ Wednesday. This is in association with a cold front that will have things feeling much cooler around these parts to close the work week.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″ (locally heavier totals)
Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.
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