Mar 19

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Updated 03.19.23 @ 12:40p

I. By late-March standards, we’re looking at another downright frigid day (yes, even with that increasingly high sun angle these days). Overnight lows bottomed out deep into the 10s this morning. We’ll, thankfully, begin to moderate this afternoon and that same trend will carry us into the 60s by Thursday. Hang in there.

II. Unfortunately, that moderating trend will also come with renewed unsettled weather. While the work week will get off to a nice start, rain returns Tuesday night as an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow takes hold.

III. It still doesn’t appear as if the lead wave of moisture Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be a big deal but it will set the tone for what lies ahead to close the work week. We continue to circle Friday as the day that will bring heaviest rain and an associated flood threat. Widespread 3”+ rain amounts remain on the table and we’ll be able to hone in on more specific placement and amounts as we get through the next 24-48 hours.

IV. If that’s not enough, guidance brings another organized system through the region late next weekend, as well. Needless to say, well above normal precipitation is expected over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days and flood risks will have to be monitored closely as this pattern evolves.

V. A reinforcing chilly airmass will likely follow next Sunday’s system.

Side note: Monday’s normally scheduled client video discussion will be posted Monday evening due to travel. I apologize for any inconvenience and look forward to reviewing fresh 12z guidance concerning the items above (and more) tmrw evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/19/sunday-afternoon-rambles-6/

Mar 18

Quiet Open To The Week Turns Busy; Focus Shifts To Late Week HVY Rain Threat…

Updated 03.18.23 @ 2:33p

The short-term pattern will be highlighted by today’s wintry conditions. Snow showers accompanied bitter cold (at least by March standards) this morning, including wind chill values that even dipped below zero in spots. Sunday will also feature unseasonable cold before a slow moderation in the temperature department eventually takes us back into the 60s by midweek.

Speaking of midweek, that’s when unsettled weather will return. We don’t anticipate particularly heavy rain, but rain chances will be on the increase Wednesday. Early numbers suggest we’re looking at 0.25” to 0.50” type of an event but this appears to set the stage for a more significant rain storm as we get set to close the week. As is typically the case 5-6 days out, forecast models differ on the specifics but the overall pattern favors a heavy rain and local flood threat unfolding across the Ohio Valley. Specifics regarding whether or not this is a central or more of a southern OHV threat will be dealt with in the days ahead.

As it is, the GFS and European are in great agreement from this distance on the heavy rain and flood threat, including the opportunity of 3”+ of rain through at least a portion of the forecast area (most of which falls Friday). Specifics around more details with locations/ rainfall numbers will be fine tuned in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/18/quiet-open-to-the-week-turns-busy-focus-shifts-to-late-week-hvy-rain-threat/

Mar 17

Long Range Update To Close Out March And Open April…

Updated 03.17.23 @ 6a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/17/long-range-update-to-close-out-march-and-open-april/

Mar 16

VIDEO: Wet, Windy Weather Returns By Evening; Cold Weekend On Tap…

Updated 03.16.23 @ 7:32a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/16/video-wet-windy-weather-returns-by-evening-cold-weekend-on-tap/

Mar 15

Unsettled Close To The Work Week; Cold Weekend On Tap…

Updated 03.15.23 @ 6:58a

Let’s start with the good news and that’s today’s forecast. Despite a bitterly cold start (most are waking up to temperatures between 18° and 22°), expect plentiful sunshine today. Though it’ll be unseasonably chilly, that March sun angle will go a long way in making it feel a lot better by this afternoon.

Clouds will increase overnight and Thursday morning and eventually give way to light rain by afternoon. We anticipate rain to reach the city, itself, between 2p and 3p.

Rain will become steadier and more widespread as we progress through the evening and Thursday night.

Precipitation may end as a brief period of snow Friday morning, but “brief” is the key word. In general, heaviest rain is expected to fall across the southern half of the state, mostly along and south of the I-70 corridor. This is a 0.25” to 0.75” type event for most.

The bigger story comes in the form of another late season arctic “jab” behind the frontal passage. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will remain stuck in the 30s with overnight lows once again dropping into the upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind chill values will fall into the single digits to lower 10s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/15/unsettled-close-to-the-work-week-cold-weekend-on-tap/

Mar 14

VIDEO: Cold Air Reinforcements Just In Time For The Weekend…

Updated 03.14.23 @ 6:04a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/14/video-cold-air-reinforcements-just-in-time-for-the-weekend/

Mar 13

VIDEO: Snow Squalls Increase This Afternoon-Evening; Reinforcing Late Season Arctic Air Arrives This Weekend…

Updated 03.13.23 @ 7:54a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/13/video-snow-squalls-increase-this-afternoon-evening-reinforcing-late-season-arctic-air-arrives-this-weekend/

Mar 12

Setting The Table For The Upcoming 7-10 Days…

Updated 03.12.23 @ 6:30p

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/12/setting-the-table-for-the-upcoming-7-10-days/

Mar 11

Rain Mixes With And Changes To Snow Overnight; 2 Shots Of Late Season Arctic Air…

Updated 03.11.23 @ 6:40a

Today will be a quiet and calm weather day across the region. It’s not until we get into the late evening hours when precipitation will overspread central IN from the west. We target an arrival of light rain into the area between 9p and 11p west to east. This light rain should then increase in intensity and begin to transition to wet snow towards midnight, continuing into and through the mid morning hours Sunday.

With only marginally cold temperatures in place and a lack of overly heavy precipitation rates, the thought here is that wet snow accumulation will be in the dusting to 1” range for the bulk of central IN. North of the city, including northern ‘burbs stand a better shot of 1”-2” of wet snow accumulation.

Our attention then shifts to the cold. A couple blasts of late season arctic air will plunge into central IN Monday and Tuesday (lows in the lower 20s and highs in the upper 30s), followed by another cold blast St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We’ll have to also monitor for the potential of additional snow prospects next weekend, but will get through this event first. Speaking of this event, snow should diminish in intensity and come to an end towards 8 to 9a and we don’t anticipate widespread pavement issues due to the recent relative warmth.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/11/rain-mixes-with-and-changes-to-snow-overnight-2-shots-of-late-season-arctic-air/

Mar 10

VIDEO: Rain/ Snow Mix Saturday Night And Sunday Morning; Shot Of Much Colder Air Inbound Early Next Week…

Updated 03.10.23 @ 7:44a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/10/video-rain-snow-mix-saturday-night-and-sunday-morning-shot-of-much-colder-air-inbound-early-next-week/

IndyWx.com