There’s no reason to waste pixels with the forecast package over the upcoming week (and likely beyond) as we’ll enjoy about as quiet and uneventful of a pattern as we can ever ask for- certainly in early to mid April.
High pressure will build overhead and remain in control of our pattern deep into next week. This means we can expect dry conditions straight into next weekend.
Not only that, but temperatures will moderate in significant fashion next week as well. The “step-up” into the 70s complete with plenty of sunshine will be mighty nice…
The active pattern will return eventually, but just let us worry about that and you be sure to soak in the extended period of gorgeous conditions.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Today is one of those days where it will be important to remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings that will likely be issued. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include all of the state in an ‘enhanced risk’ of severe weather today. All modes of severe weather are in play with the greatest emphasis placed on damaging straight line wind potential, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Large hail is also possible, especially if we get discrete cells to pop ahead of the main line later this afternoon (more on that below).
Out the door this morning, it’s easy to understand the environment is one conducive of stormy weather. We’re already in the middle 70s at the 7a hour (that will be close to our high today) and dew points are into the lower to middle 60s. Instability will increase in the coming hours and it won’t be long before a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is issued for a part, if not most, of the state.
As we time out the arrival of storms, we think things unfold in 2 waves today. The first round of storms likely comes from individual cells, or clusters, mid to late morning. These will be scattered in nature but have the potential to rotate and also produce large hail.
The 2nd wave will come from a more widespread squall line and that’s where we anticipate the greatest opportunity of damaging straight line winds. Please note this doesn’t mean there still couldn’t be a quick spin-up tornado embedded within the squall line.
The other item to add here has to do with gradient winds that will approach 50 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. If you haven’t already, we’d highly encourage bringing in or securing any loose objects that could easily be blown about.
Weather conditions will rapidly improve from west to east as we move into the evening hours and this will set the stage for the remainder of the week, including our Easter weekend. High pressure will build overhead and supply an extended stretch of sunny days and calm nights, including lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, eventually warming into the 60s for highs this weekend, and into the 70s early next week.
Please be sure to remain weather-aware today and heed any warnings that will likely be issued in the coming hours.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/04/latest-details-on-severe-threat-timing-of-severe-storms-wednesday-looking-forward-to-a-nice-easter-weekend/
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/03/video-strong-severe-storm-threat-tuesday-night-into-wednesday-gorgeous-weather-heading-into-easter-weekend/
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
The talented folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have increased the Day 1 severe threat to now include most of the state in a Moderate (level 4 out 5) risk. It should also be pointed out that all modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes, some of which could be long track.
We continue to believe discrete cells will begin to fire later this evening (targeting initiation between 4p and 6p) across the state and it won’t take much for these to begin to show signs of rotation. If you don’t have to travel tonight, we recommend making it a night in and keeping tuned to the latest watches and warnings that will be sure to come.
As we progress deeper into the evening and early overnight hours, that’s when we expect a squall line, capable of producing damaging straight line winds, to march across the state from west to east. We bracket the hours of 10p to 2a west to east for impacts. In addition to the heightened damaging wind threat, it’s possible some of the embedded cells within the line will try and rotate, leading to a spin up tornado potential within the advancing line, especially for western and central parts of the state.
No need for panic or alarm, these events take place every year around these parts. Just ensure to review your severe weather plan and stay tuned to local media for the latest warnings that will be issued later this afternoon and into the evening.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Today is easy. We’ll have a few clouds drifting through the state at times, but also expect a good deal of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s after the cold start to the day.
In the short-term, all eyes remain squarely focused on Friday into the early morning hours Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook Friday places all of the state in some sort of risk of severe. Far northeastern Indiana (Auburn and Angola) is in a “marginal” risk. The majority of the state, including Indianapolis, Bloomington, South Bend, and Lafayette is in a “slight” risk, and places such as Terre Haute down to Evansville and Jasper is included in an “enhanced” risk. Bottom line, all of us can expect a threat of severe weather tomorrow and it’ll be important to have a means of getting the latest information regarding any warnings that will likely be issued.
As we time things out, we’ll wake up to widespread showers and embedded thunder Friday morning, but most, if not all, of this activity will remain well below severe levels.
Showers and embedded thunder (non-severe) will be with us out the door Friday morning
It’s as we progress into tomorrow evening and the overnight that the concern of severe weather will increase. We bracket the hours of 10p and 3a from west to east that should feature a heightened risk of severe, with the biggest concern being damaging straight line winds with a line of storms that will roll across the state. There’s also an opportunity for a couple of discrete cells within the broader line to rotate and produce a tornado or two.
A line of severe storms is expected to impact the state Friday night. We bracket 10p (west) to 3a (southeast) for the biggest impacts.
Forecast radar at 12a Saturday.
We also want to be sure to hit on the “gradient” (non thunderstorm) winds that will impact the entire area. Gusts approaching 50 MPH can be expected Friday afternoon/ evening and again Saturday morning into the afternoon.
Speaking of Saturday- it’ll feature improving conditions from a severe perspective, but we’ll be left with falling temperatures (it’ll be one of those days with a “midnight high”), gusty winds, and a few leftover light showers. After a high around 60° at midnight, temperatures will be spent in the 30s and 40s most of the day with colder ‘chills.
Bigger improvements are on deck Sunday before we have to turn our attention to our next severe weather episode early next week. More on that and updated long range thoughts later this evening.
