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Aug 29

Pleasant Start To Our Labor Day Weekend; Significant Heat Returns Next Week…

• Filed under 10-day, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Labor Day Weekend, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• August 29, 2023

Updated 08.29.23 @ 7:15a

A weakening band of showers will push into north-central Indiana later this evening. A quick shower May move through the city but most should remain dry as the associated secondary cold front passes through the area. This frontal passage will serve up dry, cool air reinforcements that will carry us into the start of our Labor Day weekend. Overnight lows into the 40s can be expected.

Our “hint” of fall will quickly fade through the holiday weekend and into next week as the upper ridge builds northeast. This won’t only deliver unseasonably hot and humid conditions but will keep us much drier than normal. In fact, after today, I don’t see any meaningful chances of precipitation for at least the upcoming 10-day stretch.

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Aug 28

About As Quiet As It Gets; Another Round Of Major League Heat On Deck As We Move Into Early September…

• Filed under 10-day, Autumn, Client, Dew points, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Labor Day Weekend, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

• August 28, 2023

Updated 08.28.23 @ 12:25p

A secondary cold front will drop southeast across the state Tuesday. While we’re not anticipating any sort of widespread significant rain and storms with this frontal passage, it will be the best opportunity for rain over the next 10-14 days, overall. Best chances of precipitation will come after 5p from a weakening line of showers and storms to our northwest.

Best chances of measurable rain will be to the northwest of immediate central Indiana.

Reinforcing dry, cool air will filter into the region as we close the work week and get set to head into the Labor Day weekend. Here’s a bit of advice: please be sure to make time to get outside and enjoy this pleasant airmass as major changes await over the weekend and into next week. Until then, our late week stretch will feature overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The upper ridge will begin to build back northeast over the holiday weekend and with it will come another round of unseasonably hot, humid conditions. While it might not be quite as miserable as what we dealt with last week, chances are that we’ll have to contend with several days of 100°+ heat indices and “jungle-like” humidity with an extended period of rain-free days deep into the Week 2 timeframe. Buckle up.

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Aug 27

Endless Summer As We Navigate The Initial Month Of Meteorological Fall…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Long Range Discussion, MJO, PNA, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Warm

• August 27, 2023

Updated 08.27.23 @ 6:51a

We’re only a few days away from meteorological fall. Despite what the calendar says, Mother Nature will provide “bonus” heat and plenty of dry times as we rumble through the next few weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to “wake up” and amplify into the notorious warm phases for September.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is going to crash negative and fits right into the warm pattern driver theme.

Medium and long range modeling shows the upper ridge building and expanding northeast with time over the next couple weeks. Unseasonably hot weather will accompany this pattern evolution.

Widespread drier than normal conditions should also prevail through the upcoming few weeks.

Even as we progress into the final few days of the month, extended long range guidance maintains the warm to hot theme.

It’s really not until we get to October that the pattern should begin to change in more significant fashion and make up for lost time with respect to cool, crisp air…

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Aug 25

Friday Morning Rambles: Taste Of Fall Next Week…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

• August 25, 2023

Updated 08.25.23 @ 5:02a

I. It’s about as oppressive as it gets around these parts out the door early this morning. Temperatures will only fall a couple more degrees between now and sunrise before another dangerously hot day ahead. Check out these temperature and heat indices at 4:45a:

II. We’re tracking (2) frontal boundaries that will put an end to this heat and humidity in the coming days. The first front slips through here Saturday and will break the heat wave with a secondary, more robust, push of dry, cool air early next week. While a shower or storm is possible with both FROPAs, widespread rain isn’t expected with either.

III. A taste of fall is on deck as we move through the middle of next week and get set to kick off the Labor Day weekend. How does overnight lows into the 40s sound with highs in the upper 70s? This breath of fresh air will hold into the early part of the Labor Day weekend along with anticipated dry conditions.

IV. We’re not expecting the cool, refreshing air to last as “endless summer” returns shortly after the open to September. In fact, we continue to believe a warmer than normal and drier than average September awaits as we push through the initial month of meteorological fall. The latest European Weeklies, updated last night, for September say the same:

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