First “Taste” Of Winter; The Wild Swings Of Autumn…

Updated 10.26.23 @ 6:45a

The next couple days will be the last of temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s until next spring. The first of 2 cold fronts will settle into central Indiana tomorrow evening followed by a strong frontal passage Monday. If you rather go right to the punch line instead of reading through the rest of this post, trick or treaters will need the heavy cold gear this year.

A few showers will skirt northern counties later this evening but the lions share of the next 36 hours will be rain-free. A line of showers and even thunderstorms will be associated with Friday evening’s cold front.

A much more widespread, heavier rain will build into central Indiana through our Saturday afternoon. It’s this period, continuing into Sunday where the bulk of our widespread 1”+ rain will come. A smaller axis of heavier totals (2”+) likely sets up shop south of the city, itself.

After a “step down” process to cooler air Friday into Saturday, the bottom will really fall out Monday. This will set us up for a downright cold Halloween (lows in the upper 20s with highs in the lower 40s). Add in winds and the “feels like” will be in the 10s and 20s into the 1st day of November.

If that isn’t enough, trailing upper level energy will push into the area Halloween night and have enough moisture to generate snow showers late into Wednesday morning. A renewed push of gusty winds can also be expected during this time period.

Coldest mornings of this stretch will likely take place next Wednesday or Thursday with overnight lows into the middle to upper 20s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/26/first-taste-of-winter-the-wild-swings-of-autumn/

VIDEO: Big Changes On Deck…

Updated 10.25.23 @ 5:15a

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VIDEO: Strong Cold Front; Shot Of Heavy Rain Prior To Halloween…

Updated 10.24.23 @ 7:07a

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Dinner Time Rambles: Prospects Of HVY Rain On The Increase And Brief, Yet Potent Early Season Arctic Jab…

Updated 10.23.23 @ 5:45p

I. Today’s model suite continues to suggest quite the unsettled stretch of weather awaits for pre-Halloween festivities. I know, please don’t shoot the messenger. The culprit? A strong autumn cold front stalling out for a time in response to waves of energy riding along the boundary. The end result will likely be a widespread swath of 1″+ rains over the weekend with a more localized 2″+ band. Details will have to be fine tuned as we get closer, but folks with outdoor activities and ag/ harvest ’23 interests should plan on a rough stretch of weather in the Saturday through Monday timeframe.

Multiple rounds of moderate-heavy rain are becoming likely over the pre-Halloween weekend.

II. The coldest air so far this fall season will come rushing in on the heels of all of the aforementioned rain in the 8-10 day timeframe. Today’s European guidance is going all-in on a potent early season “jab” of arctic air, including highs around freezing and lows deep into the 20s. Perhaps extreme? Certainly, but this also has merit given where the pattern is. Though this will likely only be a brief intrusion of bitter air (at least by early November standards), I’d certainly go ahead and plan on the growing season coming to a screeching halt in just a little over a week from today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/23/dinner-time-rambles-prospects-of-hvy-rain-on-the-increase-and-brief-yet-potent-early-season-arctic-jab/

VIDEO: Warm-Up This Week; Eyeing Wetter Times This Weekend And A Big Blast Of Chilly Air To Close October/ Open November…

Updated 10.23.23 @ 8a

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VIDEO: Widespread Frost Gives Way To Warmer Weather In The New Week Ahead; Potent Storm Around Halloween…

Updated 10.22.23 @ 8:29a

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The Pending Halloween Pattern Transition And Initial Taste Of Winter…

Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a

The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.

A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.

Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.

We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.

Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/21/the-pending-halloween-pattern-transition-and-initial-taste-of-winter/

VIDEO: Gusty Saturday Followed By A Frosty Start Monday Morning; Warmer Week On Deck…

Updated 10.20.23 @ 7:34a

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VIDEO: Damp Thursday Gives Way To A Gusty Saturday; A Lot To Discuss Over The Next 10 Days…

Updated 10.19.23 @ 7:17a

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Unsettled Weather Returns To Close The Work Week; Widespread Frost To Open The New Week…

Updated 10.18.23 @ 6:17a

Today will start on the seasonally cool side with plentiful sunshine. We’ll note an increase in mud and high level clouds this afternoon that will eventually lower and thicken tonight. These clouds will signal rain by Thursday morning, and perhaps embedded thunder. The culprit? A cold front. This front will move through the state during the day Thursday.

Additional showers will follow Friday morning thanks to trailing upper level energy.

Most area rain gauges should expect to accumulate between 0.10” and 0.30” during the aforementioned time period but there will be some 0.50”+ exceptions.

Seasonally chilly air will flow in behind this system for the weekend. As high pressure settles overhead, the coldest night upcoming should be Sunday night/ Monday morning where widespread frost is expected across central Indiana. Most will wake up to temperatures between 33° and 35°.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/18/unsettled-weather-returns-to-close-the-work-week-widespread-frost-to-open-the-new-week/

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