Nov 13

Doubling Down On The Winter Idea…

Updated 11.13.23 @ 1:50p

Good afternoon, Clients! As additional seasonal guidance updates, we wanted to take a moment to review the latest trends with you as that data becomes available. Today, the latest JMA monthly product updated and “doubles down” on the idea of an overall mild, but active December morphing into a colder, stormy eastern US regime come January and February. Overall, the model is very consistent from October’s update.

December

Upper Air Pattern
Surface Temperature Anomalies
Precipitation Anomalies

Highlights

I. A milder than normal open to meteorological winter, but quite an active pattern on a widespread level- centered Central and Southern tier.

II. Lets keep an eye on the potential of a colder pattern to evolve the last 10 days, or so, of December.

January

Upper Air Pattern
Surface Temperature Anomalies
Precipitation Anomalies

Highlights

I. Ridge pulls back into the “sweet spot” and subsequent trough develops across the East. (Would watch for potential of cold to grow more widespread in the next update should this 500mb be accurate, and we think it is).

II. Active Nino southern stream delivers a hectic and busy pattern across the southern tier and up the eastern seaboard. Ripe pattern for eastern winter storm threat(s).

February

Upper Air Pattern
Surface Temperature Anomalies
Precipitation Anomalies

Highlights

I. Persistent pattern from January. If anything, ‘mean’ trough/ ridge positions only become that much more prominent. Cold becomes more widespread across the East, compared to January. Again, should the upper air pattern be correct, I’d lean that the model will have to grow colder in time for this period.

II. Very stormy southern and eastern seaboard. Likely multiple attempts at wintry “fun and games,” including deep into the south with this pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/13/doubling-down-on-the-winter-idea/

Nov 13

VIDEO: “The Calm Before The Storm…”

Updated 11.13.23 @ 7:25a It’s not that we’re talking about some sort of major storm (at least not from this distance), but when you factor the difference between this week’s…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/13/video-the-calm-before-the-storm/

Nov 12

Sunday Morning Rambles: Thanksgiving Week Continues To Trend Active…

Updated 11.12.23 @ 11:13a

As quiet as this week will be, overall, it continues to look like Thanksgiving week won’t provide the same fortune. As mentioned yesterday, there’s no reason to waste time describing the day to day “rinse and repeat” regime up until Thursday. That’s when a frontal boundary will sweep through the Ohio Valley with gusty winds (30-40 MPH) and an opportunity of showers Thursday night into Friday. Moisture return continues to look unimpressive. Best chances of measurable rain (0.10” – 0.25”) will come from Indianapolis and points east during this timeframe.

The next couple weeks will run milder to much milder than normal.

Week 1

Week 2

The quiet week we will enjoy this week will be replaced with a much more active time of things in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Look for a potentially potent and large scale storm system impacting our weather with rain and gusty winds early to mid next week. Note the significant change between Week 1 and Week 2 precipitation below. More details to come as we go through this week.

Week 1 precipitation anomalies


Week 2 precipitation anomalies

We watch the EPO trends closely for the threat of potentially colder changes longer term.

Until the PNA and MJO follow suit, “tread with caution” on any wholesale big colder shifts. All in all, this predominant regime should hold firm into the 1st half of December.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/12/sunday-morning-rambles-thanksgiving-week-continues-to-trend-active/

Nov 11

Easy, Peasy (For Now)…

Updated 11.11.23 @ 8:15a

There’s no reason to waste pixels on the short-term. High pressure will control our weather through the next 6 days, keeping us dry and providing a moderating trend back into the 60s- after a seasonably chilly weekend.

The next opportunity for precipitation arrives Friday as a cold front provides a quick, glancing blow. Once again, we’re not looking for big impacts either from a temperature or precipitation perspective (0.10” type event). A round of gusty winds will accompany the front, however.

Turning our attention to Thanksgiving week, it continues to look like the pattern will become increasingly busy. Enjoy the quiet time while we have it.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/11/easy-peasy-for-now/

Nov 10

An Incredibly Quiet Week Ahead Of A Potentially Busy Thanksgiving Week…

Updated 11.10.23 @ 6:54a

Simply put, for this time of year, the upcoming 5-7 days is as quiet as it can be around these parts. Look for much more sunshine than we typically see this time of year along with moderating temperatures after a seasonably chilly weekend. Highs will return into the lower 60s for a good chunk of the work week ahead. All in all it’ll be a perfect week to get a jump on that exterior Christmas decorating or any end of year yard work. Enjoy!

An area of high pressure will keep our region quiet in the week ahead while the “action” shifts to the south and east.

As we look ahead to Thanksgiving week, there are growing indications of a much more active pattern that will emerge. While still too early for specifics, there are likely to be some weather-related impacts to holiday travel (both going and coming home) from a couple of stronger storm systems.

One more quick note before closing, the NEW European Weeklies are in and present an “intriguing” signal as we get closer to Christmas. Note the model see the early December ridge get washed away and a trough beginning to emerge south-central. I’d watch for the model to grow stronger and more expansive (colder impacts) in time. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/10/an-incredibly-quiet-week-ahead-of-a-potentially-busy-thanksgiving-week/

Nov 09

LR Update: Thanksgiving And Early December…

Updated 11.09.23 @ 10:49a

With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.

Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.

Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.

Make it a great Thursday!

Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/09/lr-update-thanksgiving-and-early-december/

Nov 08

VIDEO: Record Territory Today And Windy; Showers Arrive This Evening With Cooler Air To Follow…

Updated 11.08.23 @ 7:31a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/08/video-record-territory-today-and-windy-showers-arrive-this-evening-with-cooler-air-to-follow/

Nov 07

An Overall Warm Ride Into The Thanksgiving Holiday; Any Changes On The Horizon?

Updated 11.07.23 @ 5:15a

Despite a weekend setback that will continue into the early portion of Week 2, updated forecast model data continues to scream that we’ll run above to well above normal as the Thanksgiving holiday nears.

The pattern drivers support the warmer than normal call over the next couple of days. Note the primarily positive EPO and negative PNA.

This should help keep the ‘mean’ ridge position across the upper Mid West and Great Lakes over the next couple of weeks.

We’ll keep close eyes on the negative trend of that EPO towards the end of the period (image 1 above) to see if it continues in the coming days. If so, there’s the potential we could pull the anticipated western trough east in perhaps a bit quicker fashion than models currently see (say the last week of November, potentially).

As it is, another big pattern driver, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will begin to rev up in the coming days. A circle through Phase 7/8 this time of year supports the warm signals shown from the PNA and EPO.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/07/an-overall-warm-ride-into-the-thanksgiving-holiday-any-changes-on-the-horizon/

Nov 06

VIDEO: Warm Midweek Trends Colder For The Weekend…

Updated 11.06.23 @ 7:26a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/06/video-warm-midweek-trends-colder-for-the-weekend/

Nov 05

Sunny Start To The New Week Takes A Gloomy Turn…

Updated 11.05.23 @ 1p

You sure would be hard pressed to find more pleasant weather conditions by early November standards. Plentiful sunshine can be expected today as high temperatures head into the 60s. While we’ll add clouds (and big wind gusts) Monday, highs will zoom into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southwest gusts will approach 40 MPH at times to open the work week. We’ll keep the warm theme going through midweek.

Gusty southwest breezes can be expected as we open the work week.

A cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening. Forecast models continue to differ on rainfall amounts with this frontal passage, but excessive rain isn’t expected.

In general, this looks like a 0.10” to 0.25” type event but note the wetter European and drier GFS solutions below. Expect more agreement in the coming day or 2. Regardless, this isn’t a “big deal” type of event by any means.

Expect a more seasonable brand of air to filter in as we close the work week and head into and through the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will also return. Highs will settle back into the lower 50s with overnight lows around freezing.

Speaking of dry, the theme over the next couple weeks as a whole continues to look drier and quieter than normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/05/sunny-start-to-the-new-week-takes-a-gloomy-turn/

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