Jan 01

Couple Thoughts On This Weekend And Next Week’s Storms; Colder Trends Build Long Term…

Updated 01.01.24 @ 6:41p

I hope you and your family are enjoying an incredible New Year’s Day! What a game we have on our hands at halftime in the Rose Bowl.

I post this in flight back to home base from ushering in the new year in the beautiful Berkshire mountains. Our regularly scheduled client video discussions will return tomorrow morning. I trust you’ve been following along with both short and long term pattern ideas daily over the past week.

The immediate term opens with quiet and unseasonably calm conditions while the end of the upcoming 10-day stretch will end much colder. The transition between start and finish will turn much more hectic around these parts as we track not one, but two storm systems between this weekend and early next week. While there’s no doubt we’ll trend colder than average by Day 10, questions abound with just how cold we go. Should we get a snowpack down, subzero is on the table.

Speaking of the aforementioned more “hectic” pattern, this kicks into gear over the weekend. While modeling likes more of a suppressed track at this distance, thinking here is that guidance will start to pick up on a more organized northern piece of energy, or surface low reflection, that will accompany the primary Gulf low. I suspect a secondary, organized, shield of precipitation into the OHV region Friday night into Saturday. Will that be enough to put our neck of the woods into a winter storm risk during this timeframe? Too early to call at this distance, but given where the PNA, EPO, and Greenland Block that will be starting to mature, I’d recommend keeping an eye on what will likely be an eventual click or two northwest as the week goes along. It’s likely either a “snow or no” type situation here with storm #1, as opposed to having to worry about rain or mixing issues.

As for storm #2 early next week, our early idea takes the primary low into the OHV before a secondary low “takes over” along the eastern seaboard. The energy transfer likely brings just enough mild air north into the central Ohio Valley to create more of a rain to snow type scenario, locally. The coldest air of the season so far will likely follow in the 10-15 day.

Speaking of the 10-15 day, the look above is an absolute textbook upper air pattern not only for cold, but continued opportunities of winter weather here as we rumble into mid-January. By this point, other long term pattern drivers, such as the NAO and AO (of course to go along with the MJO, PNA, and EPO) will be factored in to where we head not only for the 2nd half of the month, but into late winter and spring. Recent trends certainly suggest the colder options are gaining traction. Today’s European Weekly update reflects a more persistent stretch of high latitude blocking I can remember o/ the past few winters. This ups the ante for a stormy stretch into and through the heart of winter. Given the longer term NAO and MJO look, I’d suspect the colder threat (relative to normal) is on the table into spring this year.

Much more in the AM! Make it a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/couple-thoughts-on-this-weekend-and-next-weeks-storms-colder-trends-build-long-term/

Jan 01

Happy New Year; All Is Calm (For Now)…

Updated 01.01.24 @ 7:40a

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a joyous and prosperous 2024, filled with health and happiness!

The weather pattern through Friday is simply about as quiet as one could ask for by early January standards. High pressure will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. A weak disturbance will drift across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and could set off a few light snow showers, but even if this does take place, we’ve already wasted more pixels than needed. 🙂

A calm, quiet start to the new year is on tap.

Things begin to change this weekend as low pressure organizes in the western Gulf of Mexico with a trough extending north into the central Plains. Both features will move east and then head up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The all-important question here has to do with the northern energy. Do we get a reflection of a surface low into the Ohio Valley and associated heavier precipitation, or are we mostly bypassed off to the south (thanks to the primary low taking control)? Stay tuned. This picture should become much clearer over the upcoming 24-48 hours. Sensible weekend weather here ranges from an all out winter storm to nothing more than light snow.

Another storm will follow early next week. Finally, a big ole batch of arctic air will likely expand into the region in the 10-15 day period. By that point the question will become just how cold can we go? A lot of that will have to do with what, if any, snowpack we have down by that time. Are we just colder than average by mid January standards or talking sub-zero stuff?

Needless to say, enjoy the quiet times while we have them. A fresh Client video will be posted first thing in the morning with more details on this and more.

Happy new year!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/happy-new-year-all-is-calm-for-now/

Dec 31

Potential Is Mighty, But Can It Turn To Reality?

Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p

We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.

It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?

While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.

Details to follow in the week ahead!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/potential-is-mighty-but-can-it-turn-to-reality/

Dec 31

Thoughts On The First Couple Weeks Of The Year (And Beyond)…

Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a

The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.

The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:

Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.

After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.

The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.

The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.

Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/

Dec 30

Clipper Delivers Light Snow For NYE…

Updated 12.30.23 @ 7:54a

Despite our New Year’s Eve clipper, we’re heading for an unusually quiet weather pattern to open up the new year. The upcoming 10 days are forecast to run well below average from a precipitation standpoint.

In fact, after tomorrow’s light snow, it may not be until late next weekend or closer towards January 10th that we’re talking about our next precipitation chances. Rare, indeed, for this time of year.

Back to this morning’s headline and our clipper. Sunday should dawn dry but light snow will begin to become more widespread across central Indiana by mid to late morning.

Light snow will continue to fall through the early afternoon before we get into a brief lull in the activity. During this time frame we can also expect 10-20 MPH winds which may limit visibility slightly as the light snow falls. Daytime accumulation, if any, should be no more than a dusting.

After the lull in the activity, a second round of light snow will develop towards 10p to 11p, or so.

Though still light in nature, temperatures will settle below the freezing mark as this secondary batch of light snow falls.

While certainly not a heavy event by any means, just enough light snow and temperatures falling below freezing will likely create some localized slick spots across central Indiana tomorrow evening.

(Snow removal Clients, salting is recommended tomorrow evening).

Those with NYE plans out and about should allow extra time traveling home tomorrow evening. Light snow will diminish during the overnight and drier conditions should return for New Year’s Day, itself.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/30/clipper-delivers-light-snow-for-nye/

Dec 29

Clipper Arrives New Year’s Eve; Pattern To Open ‘24…

Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:20a

First, if you didn’t have a chance to see our thoughts after the European Weeklies came in, you can check that out here.

After the snow across portions of western and southern Indiana the past couple days (thank you for all of the reports, by the way), the next feature we’re tracking has to do with a clipper system that will dive southeast across the upper Mid West and into the Ohio Valley New Year’s Eve. This will certainly be moisture-starved, but should have just enough to work with to generate snow flurries and scattered snow showers by late Sunday morning, continuing in off an on fashion into the afternoon and evening.

A weak clipper system will offer up a few snow showers New Year’s Eve.

That’s really all there is to track, locally, over the upcoming 7-day period. The predominant storm track will shift off to the south during this time frame as an active, El Niño induced, southern jet takes hold. The one potential feature of interest is out towards the end of next week. We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, it looks like the phasing of energy will take place just a little too far east for anything of “excitement” here.

Temperatures will continue to cool closer to seasonal averages and perhaps a bit below normal over the upcoming 10-14 days. Greatest cool anomalies will be located across the western and southern tier during this timeframe.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/29/clipper-arrives-new-years-eve-pattern-to-open-24/

Dec 28

Snowy At Times For Some; Updated Long Range Thoughts…

Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:09a

Updated with European Weekly thoughts 12/29/23 @ 7:09a

There’s no reason to change any of our thoughts concerning how things play out over the next 24 hours with our upper level low pressure system. That idea from yesterday is available here. In short, it still appears as if parts of west-central Indiana are still greatest at risk of seeing light wet snow accumulation (of course some of our friends in southwest Indiana are already enjoying waking up to snow on the ground this morning).

As we look ahead to the upcoming 3-4 weeks (will add to this post later tonight after having a chance to see the updated Euro Weekly teleconnections), it appears as if we’re heading right towards more of a predominant El Niño regime with an active southern storm track and most persistent cold, relative to average, taking up residence across the southern tier. The updated JMA Weekly model portrays this best over the course of the upcoming 28 days:

Modeling continues to struggle with the MJO evolution over the upcoming 2 week period. While this doesn’t impact the idea of colder times in the short-term period, it does have great implications beyond mid-January. The kind of amplitude shown off the American guidance (image 1 below) would threaten to deliver a much warmer than average period, locally, beyond mid-month. Meanwhile, the European (image 2 below) continues to suggest a collapse into the neutral phase.

The 2 primary other pattern drivers include the PNA and EPO through mid-January. Beyond this point, we’ll start to incorporate the likes of the NAO and AO into our forecast (hence another reason why we’re interested in seeing how the Euro Weeklies show this later today).

Simply based on how the PNA/ EPO combo is forecast, the first week would open with cooler temperatures transitioning into the region and then we would likely see moderation in the week 2 to early week 3 timeframe.

Week 1

Week 2

While we’re certainly transitioning to a cooler and more active pattern over the upcoming couple weeks, compared to where we’ve been to this point in meteorological winter, it’s not yet to a point where anything looks excessively cold or, for that matter, snowy.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a couple storms to track that could offer up some meaningful winter weather potential here, but I just don’t see a sustained cold, snowy pattern taking foot through mid-January. Beyond that point, we’ll have to monitor which more extreme solution plays out. Based on everything going on by that point, it’s still likely to be a situation where either more persistent (and significant) cold or warmth develops.

European Weekly update 12/29/23

The new European Weeklies show a warmer option for the 2nd half of January, but contradict their own teleconnections during this time frame. The model goes to a strong negative AO, positive PNA, negative NAO, and a neutral EPO. Of course we’ll have to see what the MJO ultimately ends up doing but that combo strongly argues for the colder option for the 2nd half of January.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/28/snowy-at-times-for-some-updated-long-range-thoughts/

Dec 27

Cut Off Upper Low, Weatherman’s Woe…

Updated 12.27.23 @ 6:55a

A big ole slow moving cut off upper level low pressure system will pinwheel out of the upper Midwest this morning into the TN Valley and Southeast by the weekend.

These features are always known for “surprises” and it’s up to forecasters, including yours truly, to eliminate those surprises over the next couple days. The challenging part with this particular setup is that colder air will be arriving into the region as the more organized bands of precipitation are pivoting south. Precipitation intensity will also be a big player in this event. The heavier, or more intense, precipitation rates will be able to cool the column of air perhaps a bit quicker than most short term model guidance may currently see.

So what does this all mean to me? Today is quiet. After patchy fog burns off, we’re looking at more in the way of sunshine building in. The initial band of precipitation will likely setup tonight across southwestern Indiana. While this will start out as a cold rain, precipitation should switch over to snow prior to sunrise and some localized wet accumulation of snow is likely across Southwest Indiana by daybreak Thursday.

Meanwhile, back up this way, after a dry start to the day, precipitation is expected to become more widespread by early to mid afternoon. As nightfall sets in, rain will likely turn to wet snow showers. Admittedly tricky trying to determine where the steadiest band of precipitation will prevail, the best idea at this point will be across west-central Indiana, including places like Frankfort, Lafayette, Crawfordsville, and Terre Haute. Here, light wet snow accumulation of 1” to 2” seems like a good bet by Friday morning.

Precipitation will diminish from north to south across western Indiana Friday morning. Dry conditions will return until a reinforcing jab of cold air arrives New Year’s Day with scattered snow showers.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/27/cut-off-upper-low-weathermans-woe/

Dec 26

VIDEO: Turning Cooler; Couple Chances Of Light Precipitation…

Updated 12.26.23 @ 6:16a We begin to turn cooler through the day and this sets the tone for a more seasonable close to the year. We’ll continue to watch the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/26/video-turning-cooler-couple-chances-of-light-precipitation/

Dec 25

Wishing You A Very Merry Christmas And A Blessed Holiday Season…

Updated 12.25.23 @ 6:58a

From our family to yours, we wish you warmest Christmas blessings and a joyous holiday season!

After a dry start to the day, rain will lift north and overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon. A few moderate showers are likely at times. Rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish significantly as we move through mid and late evening. Though there will be a few exceptions, generally 0.50” to 0.75” will fall south of the I-70 corridor with amounts of 0.25” to 0.50” north of I-70.

1p forecast radar
4p forecast radar
11p forecast radar
Rainfall totals by noon Tuesday.

Strong southeasterly winds and unseasonably mild temperatures can also be expected today. Gusts will approach 40 MPH this afternoon across all of the region.

Our weather will dry out Tuesday and Wednesday but by this time all eyes will be poised to our west as we wait in the cold core upper level low to pivot across the region. While there won’t be a lot of cold air readily available for this system to tap into, we’ll have to see if it can manufacture its own cold air to create some potential localized winter weather “issues” for portions of the southern Ohio Valley and especially the Appalachians prior to the New Year’s weekend. For now, we’ll forecast a mix of rain and snow here Thursday- just know that we’ll likely have to firm that up once the details become clearer regarding the exact track of the upper low. As the ole saying goes, “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe.” Solutions range from a cold rain to a localized accumulating wet snow event…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/25/wishing-you-a-very-merry-christmas-and-a-blessed-holiday-season/

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