Stripe Of Accumulating Wet Snow Falls Tonight; Blustery Sunday To Follow…

Updated 01.27.24 @ 1:46p

An area of low pressure continues to organize in northeastern MS this afternoon and will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley before transferring energy off to a secondary (and eventually “primary”) low that will take control Sunday off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.

Rain will lift north into central Indiana through the late afternoon and evening, falling moderately at times tonight. As just enough cold air pours into the backside of the low, rain will transition to a wet snow after midnight. We note high resolution guidance is also becoming more “excited” about the potential of a narrow deformation band of precipitation that may setup shop across portions of central Indiana into northeastern parts of the state Sunday morning. If this does, indeed, take place, a wet “thump” of snow to the tune of 1″ to 2″ can be expected by 9a Sunday. That said, even hours away from this event, “bust potential” is still much higher than normal. Should we not realize the narrow band of heavier precipitation rates, it’ll be difficult if not impossible to get the column to cool enough to generate a band of accumulating snow.

All in all, still a far cry from anything significant, but this could surprise a few folks Sunday morning all the same. Most, if not all of this wet snow will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but there could also be a few slick spots early Sunday morning during periods of heavier snowfall rates.

Speaking of Sunday, we turn quite blustery with northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30+ MPH and highs in the middle 30s. Dry conditions will return after the early morning snow departs.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/27/stripe-of-accumulating-wet-snow-falls-tonight-blustery-sunday-to-follow/

VIDEO: Changeable Weather Tonight Into Sunday; Hudson Bay Block Forces Interesting Setup Late Next Week…

Updated 01.27.24 @ 8:25a

We’ve noticed a north and western trend with respect to our storm system tonight and early Sunday morning. Before we get there, it’s another gloomy start to the day (becoming the norm, huh?!). Rain will build north into the region this evening and fall at a moderate clip at times. We still anticipate a wet snow band to develop on the northwestern periphery of this rain shield overnight and Sunday morning and the video dives in further around current thinking.

Down the road, a Hudson Bay Block will present additional challenges and the potential of another “interesting” setup late next week. This blocking pattern will help “string out” a stronger storm threat late week and force just enough cold air south where the potential of a winter storm threat will be on the increase across portions of the lower Ohio Valley region and Appalachians. More on this threat as we progress through the week ahead.


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/27/video-changeable-weather-tonight-into-sunday-hudson-bay-block-forces-interesting-setup-late-next-week/

Rain Returns; Wet Snow Accumulation For Some Sunday Morning…

Saturday will once again dawn on a gloomy note, with cloudy skies, areas of dense fog, and drizzle, but we’re not looking at measurable rainfall across central Indiana until we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/26/rain-returns-wet-snow-accumulation-for-some-sunday-morning/

VIDEO: Wet Snow Accumulation For Parts Of The Region Sunday Morning; Pattern Evolution Into Early March…

Updated 01.26.24 @ 7:38a A quiet but gloomy and unseasonably mild close to the work week can be expected before a weak system skirts the region Saturday evening into predawn…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/26/video-wet-snow-accumulation-for-parts-of-the-region-sunday-morning-pattern-evolution-into-early-march/

VIDEO: Source Region Change For Our Storm Systems Between Now And Next Week; Establishing A Bar On Just How Cold We Get Next Month…

Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…

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Wet Times Give Way To A Drier Week 2; Unseasonably Mild Open To February…

Updated 01.24.24 @ 6:09a

Week 1 remains significantly wetter than normal across not only our neck of the woods but a good chunk of the East.

This will give way to a quieter Week 2 timeframe.

There’s some threat that the southern tier and immediate eastern seaboard never is fully able to relish in the magnitude of the warm anomalies the majority of the rest of us will see as we roll through early February. Just to reiterate, as much as we believe cold, wintry weather returns in February, it’s not after a significant period of milder times (compared to average) to open the month- likely the first 10-14 days.

Just how mild are we talking? Several days with highs into the 40s and even 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This compares to early Feb “norms” in the low 20s and highs into the upper 30s. It’s a byproduct of the MJO and alignment with the teleconnections (PNA aside) in the warm phases. As shown Monday in our LR video, we believe this all flips around in a big way later into the month, continuing into March.

In the short term, additional waves of rain (and dense fog) will keep things gloomy around these parts. Most widespread rain will come at us now through late morning before returning Thursday evening-overnight. Most rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 0.75” to as much as 1.25”+ during this time period.

Modeling continues to differ in a major fashion with the weekend storm. The GFS is further north with heavy precipitation and a transition to leftover snow showers, locally while the European takes the suppressed route. Today will likely bring alignment between the two solutions. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/24/wet-times-give-way-to-a-drier-week-2-unseasonably-mild-open-to-february/

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

Updated 01.23.24 @ 7:11a

Overall, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing ideas from last night’s video. If you didn’t have an opportunity to catch that, we encourage you to do so as it highlights our medium and long range thoughts in more detail.

The focus will change from one of ice to periods of rain (and dense fog) through the remainder of the week. We note multiple waves of more widespread rain that will ride into central Indiana over the next few days. While it won’t rain the entire time, an extended period of gloomy conditions will unfortunately be with us as we navigate the next few days and kick off the weekend.

Periods of rain can be expected through the remainder of the week.

Speaking of the weekend, we continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure that appears to take a classic track for a heavy snow dump around these parts. The problem? Cold air is fleeting and it’ll take the perfect combination of track, timing, and precipitation rates to generate anything meaningful from a wintry standpoint, locally. As of now, we favor this “sweet spot” to lay just north of our immediate area, but we’ll continue to closely monitor.

That brings us to our final point this morning and that’s wanting to ensure we drive home the idea here of an overall milder to significantly milder than normal pattern over the upcoming 10-14 days as a whole. While we’re incredibly bullish on winter’s return, we’re equally as impressed by this overall milder signal in the short to medium term.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/23/tuesday-morning-rambles-7/

VIDEO: Short And Long Term Ideas- Any Thoughts Of Winter’s Demise Premature In Our Opinion…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p

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VIDEO: Icy Setup Tonight Gives Way To Foggy, Wet, But Milder Times Ahead…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…

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Sunday Morning Rambles: Talking About Icing Monday Evening, Wet Week Ahead, And Potential Of A Wintry Return…

Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a

This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.

While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.

The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.

Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.

The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.

Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).

Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/21/sunday-morning-rambles-talking-about-icing-monday-evening-wet-week-ahead-and-potential-of-a-wintry-return/

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