Feb 18

Taste Of Spring To Close February And Open March: Monitoring Storm Potential…

Updated 02.18.24 @ 10:59a

Though we dealt with a bitter start to the day, those strong and gusty southwest winds signal a regime change through the 1st half of the work week. Highs will pop into the 60s even by midweek- a far cry from this morning’s sub-zero “feels like” over the heart of the fresh snowpack.

This morning’s visible satellite image shows clear skies across our region and the fresh snowpack.

The upcoming 10-day period will feature an expanding ridge across the East and the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West.

After another brief shot of cold air this weekend, a significant unseasonably mild pattern will arrive next week. Cold settles into the West.

The developing upper air pattern will lead to a more active storm track to close February and open March. See the anticipated above normal precipitation pattern taking hold. This is likely a sign of what the balance of meteorological spring will feature.

In the week ahead, we continue to track a rain maker Wednesday night into Thursday and a brief “jolt” of cold for the weekend.

Looking ahead to next week, a more widespread and stronger storm should take aim on our area. Though still a ways off, the signal is one that looks like this feature will be able to tap into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a more widespread, potentially, heavier rain event and also the chance of storms.

Note precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast nearly 300% of the norm.

As we get closer, we’ll have to keep tabs on instability levels and available energy for the prospects of storms. More on this Day 8-10 feature in the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/18/taste-of-spring-to-close-february-and-open-march-monitoring-storm-potential/

Feb 17

Islands Of Cold In A Sea Of Milder Times…

Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a

Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).

I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.

Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.

Another round of gusty winds will arrive overnight into Sunday morning, this time out of the southwest.

Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.

After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.

Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/17/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/

Feb 16

Lunchtime Rambles: Snow Becomes More Widespread And Thoughts On Next Week…

Updated 02.16.24 @ 12:14p Snow will continue to overspread the remainder of central Indiana through the afternoon and fall moderately at times. Localized banding should develop this afternoon and these…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/16/lunchtime-rambles-snow-becomes-more-widespread-and-thoughts-on-next-week/

Feb 16

VIDEO: Snow Overspreads The Region And Becomes Moderate-Heavy At Times; Bitter Open To The Weekend Gives Way To A Milder Week Ahead…

Updated 02.16.24 @ 6:40a

A widespread accumulating snow event will get underway over the coming few hours across all of central IN. At times, localized moderate to heavy snow intensity is anticipated this afternoon before diminishing this evening. A brief, but bitter jab of arctic air will flow into the region tonight and Saturday, including wind chill values that fall into the single digits. Sunshine returns over the weekend.

Snowfall forecast- most of which will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. Slushy pavement conditions will develop during times of more intense snow this afternoon. Salting and plowing will be required throughout most of central IN today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/16/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-and-becomes-moderate-heavy-at-times-bitter-open-to-the-weekend-gives-way-to-a-milder-week-ahead/

Feb 15

VIDEO: Snow Overspreads The Region Friday; Fresh Medium-Long Range Thoughts…

Updated 02.15.24 @ 9:42p

Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.


A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.

More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/15/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-friday-fresh-medium-long-range-thoughts/

Feb 14

VIDEO: Valentine Sunshine; Brief Jab Of Arctic Air And Snow To Close The Week…

Updated 02.14.24 @ 7:51a Plentiful sunshine will be with us as we move through our Valentine’s Day along with unseasonably mild temperatures. A brief “jab” of arctic air will be…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/14/video-valentine-sunshine-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-and-snow-to-close-the-week/

Feb 13

VIDEO: Keeping An Eye On Friday; Brief Jab Of Arctic Air To Follow…

Updated 02.13.24 @ 5:32a Quiet weather will be with us as we move through the next couple of days before a fast moving and weak disturbance delivers a few showers…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/13/video-keeping-an-eye-on-friday-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-to-follow/

Feb 12

VIDEO: Tracking 2 Systems In The Week Ahead; Mild Signals Continue To Mount Longer Term…

Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/12/video-tracking-2-systems-in-the-week-ahead-mild-signals-continue-to-mount-longer-term/

Feb 11

Pre Super Bowl Rambles: Cooler Week Ahead, But Milder Late Month Trends…

Updated 02.11.24 @ 3:31p

I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.

Monday night’s system has trended further south today.

While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.

In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.

Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/pre-super-bowl-rambles-cooler-week-ahead-but-milder-late-month-trends/

Feb 11

Localized Wet, Heavy Snow Bands Set Up Downstate Monday Night; Tracking 2 Additional Systems In The Week Ahead…

Updated 02.11.24 @ 8:38a

We’ll get to enjoy one more quiet, calm day. Our Super Bowl Sunday will feature a continuation of unseasonably pleasant conditions with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures. We’ll rise from the upper 20s this morning into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon with dry conditions.

This morning’s visible satellite image shows mostly clear conditions in place across the state.

We’re still tracking an area of low pressure that will move into the lower Ohio Valley Monday. As of this morning, this continues to look like a south of I-70 event, including rain that will overspread downstate Monday afternoon before making the transition to wet snow Monday evening. A period of localized heavier banding is likely Monday night downstate and its within these localized “mesoscale bands” that a few folks may wake up Tuesday morning to 3″+ of snow. Otherwise, this appears to be a 1″ to 2″ slushy accumulation for our friends from the southern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points south. Outside of the heavier banding zone, this will be an accumulation event that takes place on grassy and elevated surfaces only.

An area of low pressure will lead to unsettled weather downstate to open the work week.

This is the zone we highlight for the potential of the meso banding to set up, leading to the potential of a bit more “hefty” accumulation.

We’ll be left with a few scattered snow showers Tuesday morning, otherwise, that’ll be it with this system for our neck of the woods. Heads up, if your travels take you to the Northeast big cities this week, plan for impacts from this system. (This should be the most widespread heavy snow so far this season from in and around NYC up to Boston).

Attention here will then shift to a weak (rain maker) system Thursday and then another opportunity for wintry mischief to close the week. Stay tuned!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/localized-wet-heavy-snow-bands-set-up-downstate-monday-night-tracking-2-additional-systems-in-the-week-ahead/

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