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Feb 20

Back To Winter We Go

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy
February 20, 2014

Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.

31/ 43	31/ 44	26/ 34	18/ 32	19/ 26	8/ 22	7/ 19
Light	– – –	Light	Light	– – –	– – –	– – –

Forecast Updated 02.21.14 @ 7:30a

Chilly, Windy Close To The Week…After a busy Thursday night that included hail reports, damaging wind gusts, and flooding we’re looking at a calmer, yet blustery and colder close to the work week as low pressure heads north into Canada. Winds will remain strong and gusty this morning, but begin to “relax” as we head into the afternoon, diminishing slowly through the day. That said, it’ll remain quite blustery and much cooler than the flirt with spring Thursday. A couple of snow showers may fly in shallow wrap around moisture this morning.

For now, we think Saturday will remain mostly dry, but a fast moving weather disturbance will scoot by to our north and could result in an increase in cloud cover Saturday afternoon.

Sunday Snow? That remains the question, but we continue to closely monitor a disturbance that could produce accumulating snow here Sunday afternoon into Monday. Model data is all over the place and ranges anywhere from a mainly dry day Sunday to a full blown accumulating snow event of a few inches. It’s worth noting the Canadian is the most bullish on Sunday accumulation potential and we’re leaning more towards that direction as of now, especially when considering the way the Canadian handled the Valentine’s snow event. Stay tuned.

Big Cold…A major league late season blast of arctic air will blow into town by the middle of next week and result in temperature close to 25-30 degrees below normal. We’ll monitor the “goings on” late next week as indications points towards a storm brewing. Early ideas take this mainly south of our immediate region, but we’ll continue to monitor.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-3″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Feb 19

Stormy Thursday On Tap…

Filed under Uncategorized
February 19, 2014

Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.

37/ 60	32/ 43	31/ 42	26/ 34	20/ 32	18/ 30	8/ 19
Heavy	– – –	– – –	Light	Light	Light	Light

Forecast Updated 02.19.14 @ 7:58a

Severe Weather And Flooding Potential…Today we’re focused on two rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain. The first wave of rain and thunder will “rumble” through the region Thursday morning. We don’t anticipate severe weather with this initial wave, but thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours in spots as the warm front lifts north through the area. After a chilly start, temperatures will suddenly zoom to close to 60 by the afternoon.

Our attention will then turn west as we watch a line of thunderstorms organize this afternoon. Within this line of storms damaging straight line winds will be a possibility (in excess of 60 MPH) as it crosses the state. We bracket 5PM to 9PM for the most likely period for severe weather here in central Indiana. We think the greatest severe threat will lie within the squall line, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as some data today tries to develop a couple of stronger individual cells in advance of the squall line. It’ll be important to stay tuned to local radars and your favorite media outlet.

Heavy rain and flooding will be the other concern, especially when combined with a presently frozen ground and hefty snow pack. If you live in, or around, a flood prone area please monitor water levels tomorrow and prepare to move to higher ground.

Finally, strong and gusty northwest winds will blow tonight and may reach speeds close to 50 MPH as low pressure deepens heading north into the Great Lakes. “Bombogenesis” and “fresh water fury” will be accurate terms to describe this low as it rapidly strengthens heading northeast into the Lakes region. With a wet ground, additional wind damage is possible even behind the cold front with winds gusting in the 50 MPH range.

Drier, Chilly Close To The Week…The above mentioned gusty northwest winds will allow a cooler air mass to blow in to wrap up the work week. We think dry skies return Friday and continue into Saturday.

Watching Fast Moving Disturbances; Bitter Cold Returns…We’ll continue to keep a close eye on disturbances moving east over the weekend. Disagreement amongst forecast models continues Sunday and we’ll “split the difference” and forecast light snow potential Sunday for now. Another disturbance may deliver light snow late Monday into Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, the arctic express will return and deliver a bitter feel to our air mass. Looking longer term, there continue to be indications that we have to deal with a bitterly cold close to February and open to March. In fact, latest data carries this cold and wintry regime well into March…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.25″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-thursday-on-tap/

Feb 19

Active Thursday Ahead…

Filed under Flooding, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Windy
February 19, 2014

* Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found below this post.

We continue to monitor things closely Thursday as a busy day is on tap. Thunderstorms will initially blow into the region Thursday morning as a warm front lifts north through central Indiana. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and vivid lightning.

We’ll then get into a much warmer south wind (gusting up to 30 MPH) and watch radar trends closely to our west. We’re still very concerned for a squall line plowing east through the region Thursday evening. Time of greatest concern lies between 5PM and 8PM for this line, but we caution timing may have to be adjusted after looking over evening data. Damaging straight line winds are of the greatest concern Thursday evening, along with torrential rainfall.

Following the squall line, we’re also concerned for strong and potentially damaging northwest winds Thursday night, gusting up to 50 MPH, as low pressure rapidly deepens moving into the Great Lakes.

Bullet Point Thoughts You Need To Know For Thursday

Morning round of heavy rain and thunderstorms
Severe squall line capable of wind gusts over 60 MPH Thursday evening- targeting 5pm to 11pm
Heavy rain totals around 1″
Strong northwest winds Thursday night that could gust up to 50 MPH

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Feb 18

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Windy
February 18, 2014

Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.

35/ 50	36/ 60	29/ 43	29/ 39	21/ 35	17/ 28	16/ 24
0.00”	0.75″-1.00″	0.00”	Trace	Trace	0.00″	Accumulating snow?

Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state. Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind. It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding. In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening. While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening. The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state. Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time. Stay tuned. Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February. As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present. Stay tuned.

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/

Feb 17

Mid Week Flooding Concerns And Storms; New Cold Pattern Looms…

Filed under Uncategorized
February 17, 2014

Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. 25/ 43 28/ 42 35/ 56 25/ 41 27/ 39 23/ 34 17/ 26 0.00” 0.00″…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mid-week-flooding-concerns-and-storms-new-cold-pattern-looms/