Unsettled Stretch Ahead…

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Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  While some short term forecast models suggest some hefty rainfall totals, we think what’s more than likely to happen is that most neighborhoods see around one half inch late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.  There will be some locally heavier totals reported closer to 1″, but that will be the exception to the rule!  The local air mass is just so dry (as of this evening dew points are still in the lower 50s across central Indiana) and while moisture will increase through the night, it’ll likely be too little too late.  Regardless, don’t be surprised if a rumble of thunder wakes you during the overnight. Some early showers are possible Sunday, otherwise the theme will be a drier one through the day.  While some of our short-term forecast models suggest showers are around Monday, we’re siding more with the GFS and European models and providing a dry start to the work week (we’ll continue to monitor and update if needed Sunday).

The rest of the work week will feature a busy time of things in the good ole forecast office as we track multiple disturbances.  Each one of these will be capable of producing heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.  As of now, we’re forecasting heavier rain Tuesday and Friday, but we’ll fine tune the timing as we move forward.

Finally, as we move into next weekend, there are considerable model difference between the GFS and European forecast model.  For now, we’re splitting it down the middle and going with dry skies along with comfortable temperatures Saturday.  Model numbers vary from the upper 40s (GFS) to middle 50s (EC) for overnight lows and lower 70s (GFS) to middle 80s (EC).

More later, friends!  Have a relaxing evening!

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Video Brief On Tonight’s Storms…

Quick video update this afternoon to discuss what we can expect this evening into the overnight.

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Saturday Morning Rambles

We’re off to another beautiful start across the region with comfortable temperatures and plenty of sunshine. The visible satellite shows that we’ll enjoy lots of sunshine into the afternoon hours,…

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Closing Out The Work Week Right!

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We’re going to put a wrap on another work week with stunning weather conditions. Many are beginning their Friday in the lower 50s and it’s hard to believe this is early June!  We’ll warm today into the upper 70s to lower 80s with mostly sunny skies.  By all means, find a way to spend time outdoors!  Most of your Saturday will be nice, as well, but we’ll introduce an increasingly cloudy evening with showers and a rumble of thunder possible during the overnight. Most of the rain should fall from late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with sunshine returning Sunday afternoon.  Rainfall totals should reach one half inch, or less with Sunday’s event.

We’ll enjoy a briefly dry period Monday with pleasant temperatures before another storm system impacts the region Tuesday through Thursday with periods of showers and thunderstorms.  Moderate to hefty rainfall totals are possible with this particular system, including an early call of additional amounts around an inch on a widespread basis.

In case you missed it: Battle Developing Mid/ Late June…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/closing-out-the-work-week-right/

Battle Developing Mid/ Late June

As we progress into another weekend, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better for this time of year.  The back half of the weekend will transition to one that’s more unsettled and feature showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.  Modeling today is backing off on the heavy rain event Sunday and hitting another system coming through the pipeline Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy rain.  We’ll keep an eye on things and update our forecast Friday morning.  Regardless, let us worry about Sunday and you be sure to enjoy Friday and Saturday!

The pool of cool will keep things feeling might nice through the first half of the weekend, along with low humidity and plenty of sunshine!

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As we look into the long range, there are some questions that arise.  The questions don’t have to do with warming that’s likely to take place late week 2 (90s within reach), but just how long that ridge and associated dome of heat hangs around.  The European ensembles would imply the bubbling heat ridge will stick around for a few days.

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Meanwhile, it should be noted that the European weeklies disagree with its own ensemble package as they bring a cooler pattern and associated trough back into the Great Lakes and northeast region as we get set to head into the last week of June.  Due to licensing issues we can’t show the European weeklies here, but they deliver quite the trough and cooler than normal air mass around, or just after, the 23rd.

Additionally, the PSD agrees and delivers a cool pattern around June 20th.

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So, while we’re likely to see the hottest weather of the season so far towards Day 10, confidence of this hot weather sticking and holding is very low.  Timing will have to be resolved as it always does in long range weather.  Overall, what’s more likely to happen is that this will be a transient hot pattern and we flip the script to one that’s cooler than average as we go into the last week of the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/battle-developing-mid-late-june/