Jan 30
Updated 01.30.24 @ 7:16a A weak clipper will deliver mixed showers this morning and a round of light snow showers this evening. Totals with both rounds of precipitation will be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/30/video-weak-clipper-today-unusually-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/
Jan 29
Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:59a We’ll close January and open February with an extended stretch of unseasonably quiet (and mild) conditions. The only exception? A weak clipper that will offer up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/29/video-tuesday-clipper-followed-by-an-extended-stretch-of-quiet-conditions/
Jan 28
Updated 01.28.24 @ 7:07a
The narrow but more organized band of locally moderate-heavy precipitation failed to materialize overnight. The result is a busted snowfall forecast. Sure some are dealing with wet snow this morning, but the type of precipitation rates weren’t achieved to cool the entire column of air enough to allow the accumulating snow axis of 1”-2” to materialize.
Regardless of what type of precipitation you’re seeing this morning, this will all pull out of the state around lunchtime. Western portions of Indiana will dry out much sooner.
We’ll be left with blustery conditions today, including north, northwest winds that will reach speeds north of 30 MPH at times.
With all of this said, the great news is that the balance of the upcoming week (into next weekend) will be significantly quieter around these parts when compared to this past week. We’ll watch a clipper system that will likely deliver a cold rain and/ or a wintry mix Tuesday morning into the afternoon but this shouldn’t be a big deal across central Indiana.
That’s all she wrote on the precipitation front heading into next weekend. Heights will build over Hudson Bay (Hudson Bay block) this week and force a more active pattern to our south late week. While we’ll have to continue monitoring the potential of interesting times to our south (lower Ohio Valley, TN Valley and Deep South) going into Friday and the weekend, this upper air pattern should keep our immediate weather much quieter, aside from a “back door” cold front that will pass through here dry. We will certainly notice a much colder time of things developing during this period, along with gusty winds at times.
Looking Ahead: The overall pattern should feature a milder than normal regime (as a whole), along with drier than average conditions to close January and open February.
Week 1
Jan 28-Feb 3
Week 2
Feb 4-10
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/28/a-quieter-pattern-to-close-january-open-february/
Jan 27
Updated 01.27.24 @ 8:25a
We’ve noticed a north and western trend with respect to our storm system tonight and early Sunday morning. Before we get there, it’s another gloomy start to the day (becoming the norm, huh?!). Rain will build north into the region this evening and fall at a moderate clip at times. We still anticipate a wet snow band to develop on the northwestern periphery of this rain shield overnight and Sunday morning and the video dives in further around current thinking.
Down the road, a Hudson Bay Block will present additional challenges and the potential of another “interesting” setup late next week. This blocking pattern will help “string out” a stronger storm threat late week and force just enough cold air south where the potential of a winter storm threat will be on the increase across portions of the lower Ohio Valley region and Appalachians. More on this threat as we progress through the week ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/27/video-changeable-weather-tonight-into-sunday-hudson-bay-block-forces-interesting-setup-late-next-week/
Jan 24
Updated 01.24.24 @ 6:09a
Week 1 remains significantly wetter than normal across not only our neck of the woods but a good chunk of the East.
This will give way to a quieter Week 2 timeframe.
There’s some threat that the southern tier and immediate eastern seaboard never is fully able to relish in the magnitude of the warm anomalies the majority of the rest of us will see as we roll through early February. Just to reiterate, as much as we believe cold, wintry weather returns in February, it’s not after a significant period of milder times (compared to average) to open the month- likely the first 10-14 days.
Just how mild are we talking? Several days with highs into the 40s and even 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This compares to early Feb “norms” in the low 20s and highs into the upper 30s. It’s a byproduct of the MJO and alignment with the teleconnections (PNA aside) in the warm phases. As shown Monday in our LR video, we believe this all flips around in a big way later into the month, continuing into March.
In the short term, additional waves of rain (and dense fog) will keep things gloomy around these parts. Most widespread rain will come at us now through late morning before returning Thursday evening-overnight. Most rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 0.75” to as much as 1.25”+ during this time period.
Modeling continues to differ in a major fashion with the weekend storm. The GFS is further north with heavy precipitation and a transition to leftover snow showers, locally while the European takes the suppressed route. Today will likely bring alignment between the two solutions. . .
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/24/wet-times-give-way-to-a-drier-week-2-unseasonably-mild-open-to-february/
Jan 23
Updated 01.23.24 @ 7:11a
Overall, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing ideas from last night’s video. If you didn’t have an opportunity to catch that, we encourage you to do so as it highlights our medium and long range thoughts in more detail.
The focus will change from one of ice to periods of rain (and dense fog) through the remainder of the week. We note multiple waves of more widespread rain that will ride into central Indiana over the next few days. While it won’t rain the entire time, an extended period of gloomy conditions will unfortunately be with us as we navigate the next few days and kick off the weekend.
Speaking of the weekend, we continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure that appears to take a classic track for a heavy snow dump around these parts. The problem? Cold air is fleeting and it’ll take the perfect combination of track, timing, and precipitation rates to generate anything meaningful from a wintry standpoint, locally. As of now, we favor this “sweet spot” to lay just north of our immediate area, but we’ll continue to closely monitor.
That brings us to our final point this morning and that’s wanting to ensure we drive home the idea here of an overall milder to significantly milder than normal pattern over the upcoming 10-14 days as a whole. While we’re incredibly bullish on winter’s return, we’re equally as impressed by this overall milder signal in the short to medium term.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/23/tuesday-morning-rambles-7/
Jan 22
Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-icy-setup-tonight-gives-way-to-foggy-wet-but-milder-times-ahead/
Jan 19
Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:58a As the “system” snow winds down, we’ll notice a renewed area of snow showers developing through the late morning and afternoon as another round of arctic…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/video-gusty-snow-showers-squalls-redevelop-flipping-the-switch-to-a-wetter-but-milder-week-ahead/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 6:58a A band of snow will drop south into north-central IN Thursday morning, likely making it as far south as the Indianapolis-area proper before falling apart. This…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/17/video-snowy-close-to-the-week-finally-arctic-hammer-drops-this-weekend-before-significant-pattern-change/
Jan 16
Updated 01.16.24 @ 12:34p
Today and most, if not all, of Wednesday will be plain ole cold but at least precipitation free. We’ll have to watch short term guidance closely for a band of snow that will develop across northern Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. We think this snow band will sink south into at least north-central Indiana after sunrise Thursday before falling apart likely around Indianapolis. A quick 1”-2” of snow is likely across northern and north-central Indiana Thursday morning.
Our next opportunity of snow (area wide) will move in Thursday night and Friday morning. This will be a much higher ratio type snow (think 20:1) than typical with the cold, arctic airmass in place. We should easily be able to accumulate 2”-4” with this event, with the potential of a couple 4”+ reports. (Snow removal clients, plowing and salting will be activated by Thursday evening).
A fresh round of bitter, arctic air flows in as we kick off the weekend. With a fresh snowpack, another round of subzero lows should be expected. Look for highs in the 10s Saturday and 20s Sunday. Wind chill values will dip to around -20° as we kick off the weekend.
Though a moderating trend will kick in in full force next week, we’ll have to watch for the potential of a freezing rain and/ or sleet event Monday night into Tuesday (arctic air is always slower to erode than usually modeled) and a true shift to a wet pattern for the middle and latter part of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/16/snow-event-and-arctic-reinforcements-to-close-the-week-active-storm-track-ahead/