Updated: 02.18.21 @ 7:08p
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Category: Wintry Mix
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/18/video-long-winded-update-of-where-we-think-the-pattern-is-going-into-early-march/
Feb 18
02.18.21 Weather Bulletin: Another Snowy Day…
Updated 02.18.21 @ 8:38a
More Shoveling Ahead…Widespread snow continues to blanket central Indiana and this will remain the case through early afternoon. Throughout immediate central Indiana, reports indicate we’ve already seen 2″ to 3″ for most and we’ll likely tack on an additional 1″ to 2″ before the steady snow exits early afternoon. (Please keep those reports coming by sending to us via Twitter @indywx or email bill@indywx.com. As always, your ground-truth reports are invaluable- and greatly appreciated)!
“System” snow will diminish from southwest to northeast this evening and arctic reinforcements arrive on the scene tonight and Friday. Additional snow flurries and scattered snow showers are a good bet Friday, but with minimal additional accumulation.
As high pressure builds overhead Friday night and Saturday morning, we’ll likely “go low” on the thermometer and rival numbers seen around these parts Wednesday morning. Sunshine and just enough return flow around that area of high pressure will go a long way to helping us out Saturday afternoon though as we forecast a “balmy” 30° ;-).
Our next storm system will blow through here Sunday into Sunday night. You know our concern. Despite forecast model data trying to warm things up, I’m afraid data still isn’t understanding the situation at hand, especially given the prolonged nature and magnitude of the cold. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, but as it sits now, I’m still very much concerned we’re looking at more of a wintry mix/ icing type event Sunday PM as opposed to a cold rain the majority of data currently shows.
Next week will open on the milder side of things, but we’re already eyeing the next possible round of wintry “mischief” late next week…
More on all of this, including a longer range update later this evening in our video discussion.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/18/02-18-21-weather-bulletin-another-snowy-day/
Feb 17
02.17.21 Weather Bulletin: Snow Returns; Keeping An Eye On Sunday…
Updated 02.17.21 @ 8:06a
Snow Builds Back In…As easy as the previous storm was, this one has been a royal pain in the neck. Stubbornly, I anticipated a further northwest shift (especially given the PNA state), but that’s not to be the case. While southern and southeastern Indiana will tack on a few additional inches with this storm, this is a 1″ to 2″ type deal for central Indiana, and most of that falls tomorrow morning into Thursday afternoon.
A few lingering light snow showers are possible Friday followed by clearing. High pressure will build overhead Friday night and set us up for another “nasty” cold night. Temperatures will likely rival where we are this morning come Saturday morning as winds go calm and skies clear.
The next potential trouble maker looms on the horizon Sunday. Models are beginning to slowly understand that we’re simply not going to dislodge all of this cold air in quick fashion. As such, a wintry mix and/ or wet snow is becoming increasingly likely by Sunday PM into Sunday night as this system blows through.
Quiet conditions return into early portions of the work week.
Averages: H: 41°/ L: 24° on the 17th –> H: 43°/ L: 26° on the 23rd
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/17/02-17-21-weather-bulletin-snow-returns-keeping-an-eye-on-sunday/
Feb 15
02.15.21 Weather Bulletin: Hunker Down…
Updated 02.15.21 @ 7:20a
Be At Your Destination By Early Afternoon…Light snow continues to fall across the region this morning, but conditions will deteriorate rapidly as we move just beyond the lunchtime hour. Snowfall will become heavy and accumulate to the tune of 1″ to 2″ per hour this afternoon and tonight. By Tuesday morning, we expect many central Indiana communities to be closing in on a foot, and drifts in the open country will exceed 3 feet in spots. We highly discourage travel today if at all possible. If you have to travel this afternoon and evening, please ensure you have a winter storm survival kit packed as many roadways will become impassable due to a combination of very heavy snow and increasing wind. Speaking of wind, northeasterly gusts will top 35 MPH this evening, leading to severe drifting. Our snowfall forecast remains unchanged from yesterday.
Clean up from storm 1 should begin Tuesday morning as another winter storm has eyes on the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Despite a few lingering light snow showers Tuesday morning, a period of quieter conditions will develop for about 24 hours from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. Though it’ll still be much colder than normal, sunshine will return.
Our next storm system will come roaring out of the northwest Gulf Wednesday night, tracking northeast, up along the western slope of the Appalachians Thursday into Thursday night. You know the drill: this is a favorable track for another heavy snow storm and we expect adding several more inches onto our growing snowpack during this time frame. Stay tuned as we issue our snowfall forecast for Storm #2 later today.
Looking further ahead, it finally looks like we’ll climb out of the deep freeze by the 2nd half of the weekend. The problem? Another storm system will be approaching with snow and/ or a wintry mix.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/15/02-15-21-weather-bulletin-hunker-down/
Feb 13
02.13.21 Weather Bulletin: Snowfall Forecast Issued; Initial HVY Snow Zone Idea For Midweek…
Updated 02.13.21 @ 9:56a
Back-to-Back Winter Storms…A weak trough of low pressure extends south into the northern portion of Indiana this morning. This will serve to help enhance snow “up north” through the day- including a little lake enhancement this evening. Scattered snow showers will work into central Indiana later this afternoon into the evening, but shouldn’t be a big deal.
Bitterly cold air will greet us out the door Sunday morning, but this will be the proverbial calm before the storm. A mix of clouds and sun will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky during the evening hours and snow will break out from southwest to northeast late Sunday evening into the overnight and predawn Monday. This is the “1st wave” of the early week storm. A lull in the snow is possible late Monday morning into the early afternoon before the real show begins Monday evening into the predawn hours Tuesday across southeast Indiana. This will be a very cold storm and snowfall ratios will be much higher than standard 10:1 (closer to 15-20:1) which means this should be an efficient snow producer across the region. The dry, powdery nature of the snow will blow about quite easily and snow removal clients should prepare for an extended period of significant blowing and drifting issues through the upcoming week (even well after the falling snow stops).
Here’s our first stab at accumulation with Storm #1. We’ll refine these numbers if need be moving forward.
Morning snow will end from west to east Tuesday morning and we’ll have about 24 hours of relative calm before additional fun and games roll into town Wednesday night. While still early, there seems to be potential for Storm #2 to be more significant across a larger chunk of the state. We’re noticing the majority of forecast models starting to “bulk up” on precipitation amounts with this storm and the negative PNA will likely continue to force the storm ever so much further west with time. The potential is even present for more mixing issues as warmer air aloft is drawn in across southeast Indiana. Where things remain mostly (if not all) snow, a big hit is likely Wednesday evening into Friday morning. Let’s get through the day tomorrow before getting specific with totals, but here’s our initial idea.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/13/02-13-21-weather-bulletin-snowfall-forecast-issued-initial-hvy-snow-zone-idea-for-midweek/
Feb 09
Client Brief: Another Round Of Accumulating Snow On Deck; Blowing & Drifting Also To Be Dealt With…
Updated 02.09.21 @ 7:15p
Type: Impactful Wintry Weather
What: Accumulating snow
When: Late Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
Temperatures: 18° to 24°
Wind: NE 10 – 20 MPH and gusty
Blowing/ Drifting: Considerable
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required
Summary: Wednesday will dawn with quiet conditions in place but snow will arrive into central Indiana by late morning. Initially, we’re only talking about light snow into the afternoon and evening. Snow will become more widespread and heavier throughout the “heart” of central IN during the overnight hours and Thursday morning before eventually giving way to lighter snow Thursday afternoon, eventually ending from west to east. Downstate, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and brief snow is expected, including icy travel. Once again, this will be an efficient snow producer. Instead of snow ratios of 10:1 we expect closer to 15 to 20:1 ratios (similar to that of what southern parts of the state experienced Monday). The dry, powdery nature of the snow will combine with gusty northeast winds to create blowing and drifting issues by Wednesday evening through Thursday, especially in the open country. Gusty winds will persist Thursday night even as the snow comes to an end, extending the blowing and drifting concerns.
Confidence: High
Next Update: Wednesday morning (video)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/09/client-brief-another-round-of-accumulating-snow-on-deck-blowing-drifting-also-to-be-dealt-with/
Feb 09
02.09.21 Weather Bulletin: “Active” Would Be An Understatement…
Updated 02.09.21 @ 8a
Keep That Head On A Swivel…Before we talk about what’s ahead, it was a snowy night across south-central Indiana. Many of the reports coming in from down that way indicate our 3″ to 5″ forecast played out quite nicely, including most common snowfall totals between 4″ and 5″ (with a few isolated heavier amounts). Thank you for those ground truth reports, friends! I know we’ve said it before, but they are more valuable than you know!
Now to look ahead. Storm systems will come flying through fast and furious over the upcoming 7-days. Scattered lingering snow showers and flurries today will give way to a steadier snow as we move into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected across far southern Indiana. After the 12z model suite is complete this afternoon, we’ll be back with a fresh look on expected snowfall amounts later this evening.
Friday appears to offer up a much needed one day breather from wintry systems with cold, dry conditions expected. Then our attention will shift to the weekend and threat of potentially a more significant winter storm. Guidance is trying to sort out which feature has the best chance of phasing into a more potent storm system. The GFS likes the lead wave this weekend while the European holds things off until early next week. Please stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/09/02-09-21-weather-bulletin-active-would-be-an-understatement/
Feb 08
VIDEO: Cold, Snowy Pattern Locking In For The Foreseeable Future…
Updated: 02.08.21 @ 5:35p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/08/video-cold-snowy-pattern-locking-in-for-the-foreseeable-future/
Feb 08
Multiple Snow Makers; Cold Grows More Bitter…
Updated 02.08.21 @ 8:32a
Most of the daytime today will only feature light snow, but don’t let that fool you. With such a cold, arctic airmass in place, even the “light” snow is creating travel issues in spots. Take it slow out there, friends.
A new piece of upper level energy will streak across the region tonight and help snow to become more organized in aerial coverage. A narrow, but efficient band of steadier snow is expected to get going across south-central Indiana around, or just after, sunset. It’s within this snow where we expect several inches of snow to accumulate tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Most of the steady snow will exit to the east before sunrise Tuesday. We’ll then be left with periods of flurries and light snow through the remainder of the day.
Here’s our snowfall forecast with tonight’s system:
Attention will then shift to a “juicier” midweek storm system. An arctic boundary will remain draped to our south while a surface wave rides northeast along the stalled front. This will allow more widespread, heavier precipitation to push into the region (from southwest to northeast) through the morning Wednesday. For a time, moderate to heavy precipitation rates are expected Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The early call on this system continues to be for an all snow event across central Indiana (where we think 3″ to 6″ of fresh snow is a good bet) with more of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across southern portions of the state as warmer air aloft gets pulled north. Unfortunately, I think even southern portions of the state remain cold at the surface, continuing the threat of an icy glaze vs. a plain ole rain.
Here’s our snowfall forecast for Wednesday and Thursday:
As the snow continues to add up, concern will mount around the issues that will likely come from a blowing and drifting perspective- especially as a fresh arctic intrusion arrives late week. If that wasn’t enough, additional “fun and games” are on the table for the upcoming weekend, followed by the coldest air so far this season (and in some cases in a couple of years).
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/08/multiple-snow-makers-cold-grows-more-bitter/
Feb 06
VIDEO: Unique Stretch Of Prolonged Cold, Wintry Conditions…
Updated 02.06.21 @ 8:51a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/06/video-unique-stretch-of-prolonged-cold-wintry-conditions/