Dec 09
December so far has been a battle between the cold northern tier and warmth south. The so-called “battle zone” has been located over our neck of the woods and lead…
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Dec 04
There’s been a ton of conversation as of late about where this overall weather pattern is heading. Perhaps it’s the Christmas season that brings out the conversation as everyone is hoping for that cold pattern to provide a White Christmas.
While in the short-term cold will continue to dominate, we’re becoming increasingly confident of an unseasonably mild stretch of air in the mid-range period. That’ll take us up to the week before Christmas…
In the short-term, the positive PNA will continue to be the primary driver in our pattern. This will ensure a colder east through the majority of week 1 (through next Friday).
A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.
Modeling sees the cool east in week 1 and warm west- typical of a positive PNA pattern:
There are changes in the mid-range period that’ll have lovers of winter and cold frowning. Many of our long-term readers know how we use the “typhoon rule” as a good indication of what we can expect across our region 6-10 days down the road. As stated multiple times in the past (want to give credit where credit is due), we learned this from the great Joe Bastardi. For those that are new here, I’ll describe this very briefly (you can read through the archives, if you’d like, for a longer/ more detailed description). Typically when you have a recurving typhoon in the WPAC, that suggests a trough (colder pattern) across the central and eastern Lower 48. On the flip side, when you have a westward moving typhoon, that’s a good indication of eastern ridging (warmer pattern).
Courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Super Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to move on a general westward trajectory.
This is a very good sign of a much milder than normal period in the mid-range (days 8-12). Modeling, in return, is going towards a warm pattern (associated ridge) week 2:
The GFS ensembles and NAEFS agree on the warmth and given what we’ve discussed above, so do we:
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us to see high temperatures in the 55-60 degree range during a day or two week 2.
Really quick and before we end- lovers of winter weather, there’s absolutely NO reason to throw in the towel. In fact, indications in the long range suggest the trough collapses into the east during the week leading up to Christmas and that could provide for all sorts of wintry “mischief” when almost all of folks are wanting snow…
Much more on that in the days ahead. Have a great night!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/short-term-cold-mid-range-warm/
Nov 27
From the IndyWx.com family to yours, we wish you a very happy Thanksgiving! Thank you for taking the time to read our content daily and for all of your support…
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Nov 21
It may only be November, but we’ve been locked in the grips of Old Man Winter for the past few weeks (really since the early season snow back at Halloween). While some “relaxation” will likely occur at a point during the first half of December, simply taking a look at the latest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies has to put a smile on the faces of those wanting cold and snowy weather for the upcoming winter.
Let’s take a look at the highlighted features above, starting in the Atlantic and moving towards the Pacific.
1.) Warm water off the eastern seaboard: Suggests some ridging is likely from time to time that could force would-be east coast storms inland. This is a factor in our forecasted above normal snowfall for the winter of 2014-2015.
2.) Modoki El Nino: A Modoki event, or central-based, El Nino is far different than an east-based El Nino event and the associated “blow torch” that can ensue for the winter months. Computer modeling continues to suggest a weak to borderline moderate Modoki event is in the cards. The sensible weather here in the states is vastly different from this type of event than many of the broad-brushed El Nino impact maps you may see on various media outlets. This is a cold, snowy look for many central and east.
3.) North-central PAC Waters: Water temperature profiles in the north-central PAC region continues to be an item we at IndyWx.com lean heavier on in looking at our longer range forecast outlooks. The ring of warmth around the colder north-central anomalies in the Pacific suggests plenty of Alaskan ridging ahead in the coming months. Downstream impacts? Central and eastern troughiness and associated colder than normal air.
As we state, there are MANY drivers that impact the weather, and this is simply taking the SST anomalies (1 ingredient) and dissecting the impact that they alone would have on the region. There are many other factors that we look at as we forecast long range weather. Taken verbatim, the SST anomalies suggest we’re on the right track suggesting a colder, snowier than normal winter looms… By the way, if you haven’t seen our winter outlook that was posted back on 10.19.14, you can view it here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-closer-at-the-current-sst-anomalies/
Nov 20
There’s a lot of weather to discuss over the upcoming 7-10 days, so in no particular order of most or least important, here’s what’s on our mind… 1.) Light freezing…
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