Very Windy Today; Next Big Storm Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-12 at 7.17.23 AMHighlights:

  • Very strong winds
  • Dry times return
  • Big storm next week

A cold front swept through the state during the predawn hours.  While a few breaks of sunshine may be seen early this morning, low clouds will quickly spread back over the region.

Wind will be the big story today as we still think gusts over 50 MPH are a good bet throughout central parts of the state.  Note the tight pressure gradient that remains in place across the region today into Friday.  Friday won’t be AS windy as today, but still quite blustery.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_3

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_7Our next big weather maker will arrive during the early to middle portions of next week.  Model consensus continues to highlight a hefty rain event and thunderstorms.  Early numbers would suggest 2″-3″ potential.  More details on our next storm tomorrow and on Twitter (@IndyWx).

Before we close this morning, we wanted to post the updated JAMSTEC seasonal outlook for the upcoming winter.  As a whole there aren’t a lot of changes from previous runs.  (We like to see consistency :-)).

JAMSST

JAMTemp

JAMPrecipOverall, it agrees with our forecast and strongly disagrees with any of those warm winter forecasts out there for the south and east.  One note, just because the drier anomalies show up over the Ohio Valley (what you would typically expect during a moderate to strong El Nino event) doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a lower than normal snow season.  Keep in mind, moisture content in snow is much less than rain.

After taking a look at things, I like where we stand with our Winter Outlook.  One thing’s for sure, time will tell!

UPDATED SST CA Model Is In The House…

As promised, we wanted to provide some thoughts around the updated sea surface temperature constructed analog model that was released this morning.  In short, there aren’t many huge differences from…

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Rambling Around On An Early November Morning…

The latest SST configuration has to continue putting a smile on the face of central and eastern winter lovers for the upcoming season.    We’re not going to feel anything…

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I Like It Euro…

We posted our annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook last Saturday.  If you haven’t read it yet, or want some good material to put you to sleep :-), feel free to click here.

Tonight we see the latest seasonal long range European model shifting the Nino to more of a central-based El Nino as we rumble deeper and deeper into winter.  This is another indicator that mid and late winter could be cold.  In any event, here you go:

Nov, Dec, Jan

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.13 PMDec, Jan, Feb

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.28 PMJan, Feb, March

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.39 PMThere sure have been a lot of comparisons of this El Nino to that of ’97-’98.  That’s fine in talking strength, but the overall SST profile both in the Pacific AND Atlantic is vastly different.

Hmmm…time to go dream about snow storms.  – Combine a positive PDO with a central-based El Nino and there could very well be plenty of wintry “fun and games” in the months ahead.

Click here for more from the fantastic European Centre For Medium Range Forecasts site.