Category: Winter Storm

Jan 09

Brief Thaw; Severe Winter Event Looms For A Portion Of The Region…

Highlights:

  • Fog and drizzle
  • Major winter storm looms
  • Frigid air returns

Brief Thaw; Major Winter Storm On Deck…The short-term will be dominated by low clouds and areas of fog, along with patchy drizzle.  Areas of freezing fog and drizzle are possible early Wednesday morning before conditions “warm” in earnest through the afternoon and evening.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday with showers and gusty southerly winds.  This southerly air flow will deliver a briefly milder time of things during the day Thursday before the cold front settles south Thursday night.  As this transpires, surface low pressure will organize along the southern end of the boundary before tracking northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.

We continue to favor a track up west of the spine of the Appalachians and note some of the more progressive data is beginning to correct west to align closer with the other guidance that’s been spitting out big snow numbers over the past few days.  Before we discuss snow, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will fall across the region late Thursday night into early Friday.  We expect precipitation to transition to all snow Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday.  At times, heavy snow is likely.

While we aren’t ready to lay out an accumulation map just yet, the heaviest snow axis will likely include 8″ to 12″+ amounts somewhere through central portions of the state.  We’ll aim to provide a first call snowfall map this time tomorrow.  Furthermore, there will also be a wind component to this storm.  What’ll initially be a wet, heavy snow will turn more “powdery” in nature as arctic air gets pulled into the storm.  That powder will get blown and drifted about Friday night and Saturday and travel will be significantly impacted.

Frigid conditions will return over the weekend before another accumulating snow pushes into town Monday.  Behind this snow maker, a brutal push of sub-zero air is likely next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 6″+
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/brief-thaw-severe-winter-event-looms-for-a-portion-of-the-region/

Jan 09

Gloomy Stretch; Ohio Valley Winter Storm Brewing…

Highlights:

  • Foggy days
  • Late week winter storm
  • Much colder air returns

Low Beam Weather…Widespread low clouds, fog, and areas of drizzle will impact the region as we progress through the next couple days.  If venturing out early this morning, be extra careful as sub-freezing temperatures combined with the moisture has created slick spots- particularly on side streets and sidewalks.

A southerly flow will take control briefly Wednesday evening into Thursday and help lead to a quick “thaw,” along with more widespread rain showers Thursday.  This is in association with a cold front that will sink south through the state Thursday night into Friday morning.  As this is taking place, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end of the cold front and track northeast.  That low will spread moisture back into what will be an airmass turning much colder Friday into Saturday.  The end result will be a potentially significant event of an icy mix (sleet and freezing rain) transitioning to snow Friday into Saturday.  Much colder air will pour in here over the weekend and additional upper energy will result in widespread snow early next week.

If you have travel plans Friday into Saturday, please keep abreast of the latest forecast.  A significant event looms, but we’re still a couple of days from being able to put the heaviest snow zone in “concrete.”

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/gloomy-stretch-ohio-valley-winter-storm-brewing/

Jan 08

Confidence Growing In Potential Major Winter Storm…

Confidence continues to grow in the prospects of a major winter storm impacting the Mid West and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.  A cold front will slip through central Indiana Thursday night, allowing colder air to push back into the state.  At the same time, surface low pressure should begin to organize along the tail end of the frontal boundary across the Ark-la-tex region.  As we progress through the day Friday, cold air will continue to penetrate south into the Ohio Valley while the surface low lifts northeast into the region.  While we can argue about the specific track (this is still a few days out, after all), the pattern supports a central Ohio Valley track as we progress through the day Friday into Saturday.

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Friday

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Saturday

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Sunday

We caution not to get too worked up over individual operational output (including those “spectacular” runs) as run-to-run variance is likely over the next few days.  That said, when we have support from overall pattern techniques that have supported a significant interior event for late this week since last week, along with ensemble agreement, it does lead to greater than normal confidence.  If you have travel plans late this week/ weekend, we suggest keeping a very close eye on the forecast.  This will be a high impact event for portions of the Ohio Valley.

While it’s impossible to say precisely where the heaviest swath of snow is laid down in this situation from a few days out, this is a storm that should carry a swath of 6″ to 12″+ snow just to the northwest of the track.  Additionally, an initial period of an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is also possible.  Finally, as the storm wraps up over the Ohio Valley Saturday, a strengthening wind will lead to potential severe blowing and drifting issues.  Fresh arctic air will flow into the region Saturday night into Sunday that will return sub-zero wind chills to the area.

Bottom line, stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/confidence-growing-in-potential-major-winter-storm/

Jan 08

Brief Thaw; Late Week Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Brief midweek thaw
  • Late week winter storm threat
  • Much colder air returns

Take It Slow This Morning…An overnight mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow has created a few slick spots, but widespread travel issues haven’t been reported this morning.  Thankfully, even a 1° to 2° difference (milder) in surface temperatures overnight helped us out in that regard.  The wintry mix is heading out and we should even see a little sunshine later today.

As temperatures settle back below freezing tonight, concern is present for the possibility of freezing fog and freezing drizzle in spots into Tuesday morning.  A warm front will then lift north through the state Wednesday helping our brief midweek “thaw” get underway in earnest.  Showers will accompany the milder conditions into Thursday.

A cold front will settle south through the state Thursday night and colder air will press southeast.  At the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the tail end of the front and lift northeast into the Ohio Valley Friday evening into early Saturday.  While this has the sure sign to be a significant, impactful winter storm, we’re obviously still a couple days away from being able to nail down precise track and strength.  Stay tuned and keep close tabs on that Friday-Saturday forecast.  We’ll turn much colder once again over the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ to 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/brief-thaw-late-week-winter-storm-brewing/

Jan 07

VIDEO: Icy, Snowy Night Ahead; Late Week Winter Storm?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-icy-snow-night-ahead-late-week-winter-storm/