Category Archives: Winter Storm

Tuesday Evening Check-Up On Wednesday’s Snow Event…

During a month that’s running 2.5° above normal, many across central Indiana will be sitting at “average” snowfall once to Thursday morning (with the potential of some “bonus” snow for some Friday). Not too shabby, heh?! Let’s dig into some of the latest data. In short, our going forecast remains in good shape and now it’s time to watch the event unfold.

As we type this around 6:30p Tuesday evening, snow is increasing in intensity across northern Indiana and precipitation will continue to become more organized across IL throughout the evening. The bulk of central Indiana is only dealing with drizzle and light rain this evening. It’s a damp, chilly night, but there’s no threat to travel if you’re heading out to dinner or other events with the family.

Colder air will continue to “ooze” into central Indiana throughout the night and as this takes place, a surface wave will develop south of the Ohio River. By 6a, the freezing line is expected to be just south of Indianapolis.

Light to moderate snow is expected to begin overspreading central Indiana in earnest around this time frame (earlier further north).

Snow will increase in overall intensity late morning into the afternoon hours (this is when we anticipate the greatest snowfall rates).

“System” snow will begin to diminish across central Indiana between 5p (west) and 7p (east), but we’ll have to monitor whether or not lake effect snow bands can make it as far south as portions of central Indiana tomorrow night as the wind flow backs around to the northwest and much colder air drives south.

Speaking of wind, we still anticipate northwest winds to increase to 30 MPH+ Wednesday evening across the area. This will lead to considerable blowing and drifting tomorrow night of what should become an increasingly dry/ powdery snow towards the 2nd half of the event.

Things should quieten down through the day Thursday, but cold air (well below normal) will rule into the 1st half of the weekend. We continue to believe the coldest morning of the bunch will come Saturday with widespread middle 10s. Before that, and as mentioned above, we’ll have to monitor some additional snow prospects for some Friday (more on that in the AM :-))!

Until then, enjoy our midweek snow. Our ongoing snowfall forecast first issued last night remains in place.

Arctic Cold, Blowing/ Drifting, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy, Winter Storm

Client Brief: Threat Of Impactful Wintry Event Increasing As Southeast Shift Continues…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow and wind

When: Wednesday into Thursday morning

Temperatures: Middle 30s falling into the middle 20s by Wednesday night

Wind: North 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH Wednesday night and gusty

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate to significant by Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing likely will be required

There has been a significant shift in the majority of model data today regarding the track of our midweek storm system. This has to do with a variety of elements, but most notably, the fact that the upper level energy at one time thought to come together to result in one primary storm during the first half of the work week, now looks to come in two parts: Monday into Tuesday, followed by a separate storm Wednesday into Thursday (this was what at one time was illustrated by the models a week+ ago). The debate now will continue for the next 24 hours around the deepening Storm #2 goes through, and this will have significant impacts on what central Indiana experiences in the Wednesday through Thursday time period. We think an initial wave of low pressure will organize along and just south of the Ohio River Tuesday night before tracking northeast and strengthening along the way into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Should this, indeed, be the case, moisture would become widespread (after a relative “lull” Tuesday evening) across central Indiana Wednesday morning. With cold air funneling into the area by this time, the predominant precipitation type would fall as snow across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Initially, this would be a wet type of snow before transitioning to a more powdery nature Wednesday evening.

As the storm begins to deepen to our northeast, blowing and drifting snow would become a concern on west-east roadways Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the pressure gradient increases. By this time frame, north and eventually northwest winds would gust over 30 MPH with temperatures falling through the 20s. “System” snow would come to an end Thursday morning, but lake effect will continue across the traditional primary Snowbelt of northern Indiana (please note the amounts above do not account for the additional lake effect snow that would fall for Laporte, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties). Additional lighter snow is a good bet for all as we close the work week out Friday, courtesy of upper level energy diving southeast across the state.

One additional note: We’ve been receiving a lot of questions around whether or not the southeast shift will continue with the model updates tonight. While some slight additional southeast movement in the axis of heaviest snow is still possible, there will be a limit due to the interaction between the deepening surface wave and area of high pressure. We will continue to keep a close eye on the data overnight and update things accordingly if needed early tomorrow morning.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Blowing/ Drifting, ClientBrief, Heavy Snow, Winter Storm

Client Brief: Time To Gas Up The Snow Plows…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A winter storm will impact the Ohio Valley through the 2nd half of the work week.

What: Accumulating snow and sleet

When: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Lower 30s falling into the 10s by Thursday evening

Wind: Southeast 10-15 MPH Wednesday afternoon shifting to the north Wednesday night and northwest Thursday. Winds will gust 20-30 MPH Thursday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate by Thursday evening

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required

A busy 48 hours awaits for central Indiana as a winter storm begins to impact the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue spreading over the region this evening and give way to a lowering and thickening cloud deck overnight and Wednesday morning. This is all thanks to a developing area of low pressure over the Ark-la-tex region. This surface low will track northeast into the TN Valley Wednesday and into the central Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Long time residents of the Hoosier state know this is a favorable track for impactful wintry weather across these parts and this will be no exception.

Moisture will begin to lift northeast during the day Wednesday and reach the I-70 corridor around or just after lunchtime. Across the southern half of Indiana, this moisture should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain (perhaps a bit of sleet initially as the precipitation moves in). However, further north, trouble will ensue. The air won’t only be colder at the surface, but the depth of cold air will be much deeper. This will result in precipitation that should predominantly fall in the form of a sleet-snow “concoction” along and north of the I-70 corridor where we think an axis of 2″ to 4″ of snow/ sleet will accumulate with this storm- including Indianapolis. Further north, less sleet is anticipated and will result in heavier snowfall totals. The northern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points north to include Lafayette, Kokomo, Logansport, Ft. Wayne, and Muncie can expect 4″ to 6″ of snow with this storm system. Most of that will fall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with additional lighter snowfall accumulation occurring with “wrap around” snow showers and embedded squalls Thursday afternoon into evening. (The Indiana Snowbelt (you know who you are :-)) can expect additional heavier snow accumulation, courtesy of lake effect).

A brief, but potent shot of arctic air will pour into the region Thursday afternoon and set us up for widespread single digits by Friday morning, including the threat of some sub-zero temperatures where the heaviest snowpack is laid down.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Wednesday morning

ClientBrief, Heavy Snow, Rain, Sleet, Winter Storm