Category: Winter Storm

Monday Night-Tuesday Snow Event: First Call Map

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I apologize for the lack of posts today.  My wife and I took time to get away for the weekend before the busy winter weather invades.  As a side note- it takes a special woman to put up with someone like me who has to check each and every model run through the day (and night).  I have an internal clock that causes me to wake up for the European run between 1a – 2a every night this time of year (pathetic, I know).  At any event, here are some of the quick-hitting bullet point highlights of what’s ahead into mid week:

  • Plowable Snow: Snow arrives into central IN by mid to late evening Monday and falls fast and furious for a few hours during the overnight.  Thinking here is that the majority of accumulating snow will fall after the evening rush Monday and before the morning rush Tuesday.  That said, it’ll be tough for snow removal companies and plows to keep up during the heart of the storm as snowfall rates will likely top 1″/hr during the overnight Monday.  Tuesday’s rush to and from work won’t be fun.  The snowfall map above is our best educated idea at this point, but we also think a localized band of 7″ – 8″ totals can’t be ruled out and we’ll use tomorrow to fine tune that band (early thinking is just north of the city).
  • Strong Winds: We’re still expecting wind and cold to become a huge story and concern Tuesday afternoon into mid week.  Northwest winds will become strong and gusty Tuesday and result in considerable blowing and drifting of snow (especially by afternoon).  Travel will likely remain difficult because of the combination of blowing, drifting, and the bitterly cold air.  Wind speeds will top 20-30 MPH Tuesday afternoon and night as the arctic front blows through.
  • Dangerous Cold: Temperatures will plummet Tuesday afternoon as the arctic air hits like a “wall.”  This will set the stage for dangerously cold air Tuesday night through Thursday, including below zero temperatures (5-10 below zero) and wind chill values that approach 30 degrees below zero.  Temperatures Wednesday will struggle to make it much above zero for the high (not a typo).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/04/monday-night-tuesday-snow-event-first-call-map/

Snow Showers Arrive Sunday; More Snow And Dangerous Cold Ahead…

Lots to discuss through the upcoming 7 days so please be sure to click the video and hear our latest thinking.  Have a great Saturday!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/03/snow-showers-arrive-sunday-more-snow-and-dangerous-cold-ahead/

Stretch Of Severe Winter Weather Next Week.

Just wanted to touch on a couple of bullet points for the upcoming week before a more extensive forecast update a bit later this afternoon.  A period of severe winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/03/stretch-of-severe-winter-weather-next-week/

Friday Evening Video Weather Brief…

Tonight’s video update covers the freezing rain threat early Saturday morning and looks ahead to a busy week of winter weather!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/02/friday-evening-video-weather-brief/

Friday Evening Rambles; Busy Winter Pattern…

*Your complete and updated 7-day will be posted later tonight.  As always, please click on the images below to enlarge.

1.) Early freezing rain will give way to a moderate to heavy rain event Saturday.  Widespread 1″-2″ rainfall amounts can be expected.  If traveling during the predawn hours across central Indiana, be aware for possible light glazing from freezing rain.  Forecast radar shows freezing rain potential shortly after midnight.  This should transition to all rain between 2a-4a across central Indiana, but if your travels take you north, northern parts of the state will hang on to a wintry mix a few hours longer.

LgtFRZRain

2.) We’re eyeing an accumulating snow event as a clipper system and associated arctic front blow in Monday night and Tuesday.  Still early to talk specific snow amounts, but it’s the type event that could deposit a “few” inches.  More in the days ahead.  Wind and brutal cold will accompany this snow.

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3.) Dangerous cold invades next week and reaches coldest levels Wednesday into Thursday. Wind chill values may approach 30 degrees below zero.  Definitely a dangerous scenario if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time period.

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4.) Additional wintry mischief awaits later next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/02/friday-evening-rambles-busy-winter-pattern/

Lots Of Winter Next Week….

Quick post during halftime of the Auburn/ Wisconsin game (WAR EAGLE)!!! A full 7-day forecast will be posted later tonight. Just wanted to touch on the bitter shot of air…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/01/lots-of-winter-next-week/

Detailed Christmas Eve Breakdown…

In what’s been an agonizing 6-7 days it’s only fitting that this will come down to the very end. Model performance has been poor, at best, concerning our Christmas Eve storm and given many forecasters a gray hair or two (yours truly included).

We’re going to lay out our best thinking below, but I want to be very clear when I say that we’re in a “now cast” mode for the rest of the day. It’ll be particularly important to have a means of gathering the latest weather information if you have travel plans later today.

Overnight model data shifted the track of a developing surface low east. After looking over all of the available data, we now have converged on a surface low track that moves northeast from west Tennessee into northwest Ohio. The surface low will strengthen as it moves northeast, helping wrap cold air into the system and change rain to a wet snow across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.

The tricky part comes into play when we get into the details. Banding features and associated precipitation rates will be key in determining when local communities see a transition to wet snow and ultimately how much accumulates. This won’t be a “uniform” type accumulation event.  Dynamics with this system are impressive, despite only marginally cold air. If we get into a situation where heavier banding develops it won’t take long to cool the entire column of air and result in localized moderate to heavy snow.

On the flip side, surface temperatures are mild after a day yesterday into the middle 50s. Add in the fact stated above of only marginally cold air available and precipitation intensity will be key. If precipitation isn’t heavy enough, it’ll be tough for much snow to fall, yet alone accumulate.

Bottom Line:
As stated above, this is a now cast scenario through the rest of your Christmas Eve. Given all of the data we’ve looked at, this is how we see things playing out this evening:

  • Rain falls through the morning hours
  • Rain begins to first mix with and transition to snow across west-central Indiana between 12p-2p
  • Snow begins falling across most of central Indiana by 3p-4p
  • Snowfall could be locally heavy within localized banding that sets up. If this is the case, snowfall rates would be heavy enough to overcome relatively mild road surfaces and create travel issues.
  • Snow diminishes to flurries by 8p
  • Winds will gust in excess of 30 MPH this afternoon and evening

ChristmasEveSnowfall

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/24/detailed-christmas-eve-breakdown/

Video Update On Rain To Snow Christmas Eve; More On The Days Ahead…

Good evening, friends!  Here’s an update on our latest thinking Christmas Eve and the coming days…. Have a great night!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/23/video-update-on-rain-to-snow-christmas-eve-more-on-the-days-ahead/

Keeping A Close Eye On Christmas Eve…

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Highlights:

  • Light Snow This Morning Downstate
  • Big Storm Brewing Christmas Eve
  • Cold/ Stormy Pattern Setting Up To Close 2014

Light Snow Downstate; Quiet Weekend…It doesn’t take much snow to make a mess of things on area roadways and sure enough that’s the case this morning as light snow has created slick spots on I-65 across southern portions of the state. Travel safely and slow down if you’re heading south.  All-in-all, the weekend will be a quiet one with temperatures very close to where they should be for this time of year.  We’re keeping our fingers crossed for a few looks at the sun for the second half of the weekend.

Big Storm Brewing; Still Questions Around Specifics…Let’s cut right to the chase….  While confidence is increasing on some wind-whipped snow Christmas Eve, there are still many more questions than answers in regards to precisely when and where the accumulating snow sets up across the state.

We’ll cloud things up Monday and introduce some light rain late in the day with periods of rain and mild temperatures Tuesday.  It’s as the storm begins to deepen and head north that we should get in on more of a wintry aspect, including strong and gusty winds Christmas Eve (continues to look like a bumpy ride for Santa this year) with falling temperatures after a midnight high.  Winds may gust in excess of 40-50 MPH Christmas Eve.  Needless to say, it won’t take much snow to make a mess of travel with those type winds.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune over the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 2″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/20/keeping-a-close-eye-on-christmas-eve/

Christmas Eve Storm Ideas…

We wanted to dive into some of the various ensemble data for this evening’s video.  While we’re very confident on a significant storm brewing Christmas Eve, we’re much less confident…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/19/christmas-eve-storm-ideas/

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