Category Archives: Winter Storm

Midday Thoughts Around This Week’s Winter Storm; Initial Thinking Around Ice, Snow Zones…

Updated 01.30.22 @ 2:25p

While there are still questions that have to be answered around the precise details with timing and precipitation transition, confidence is high on this upcoming storm producing some “juicy” amounts. There will continue to be subtle differences from here on in with respect to operational model guidance, but the general theme of impactful ice and snow accumulations Wednesday into early Friday morning across a good chunk of the state remains. In the “snow zone,” there will likely be a combination of higher (than typical 10:1) ratios as arctic air drills south. In addition, given this setup, embedded banding of heavier precipitation rates will likely mean a narrow stripe of double-digit totals setup shop. Please stay tuned to our short-term video updates (we’ll also begin to issue Client Briefs Tuesday morning) as we head into the new work week.

Heads up- this active pattern will likely remain intact into mid-February…

Client, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Snow, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix

VIDEO: Detailed Look At The Set Up For A Major Interior Winter Storm Midweek…

Updated 01.30.22 @ 8:45a

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Arctic Cold, Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, GFS, Heavy Snow, Rain, Sleet, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix

We’ve Seen This Before…

Updated 02.20.21 @ 8:29a

Before we dive into the challenges late next week, the potential is still very much alive and kicking for a period of slick conditions to develop Sunday evening/ night. While we’ll likely be in the middle 30s during the majority of the time this light precipitation is falling, the concern remains, given the duration and magnitude of the cold air (ground is now reported frozen “8 to 12”), that any liquid precipitation that falls will freeze on untreated area roadways and sidewalks. If you have travel plans Sunday night, plan to give yourself plenty of extra time.

Light rain should arrive between 8p and 10p (west to east across the state) Sunday before ending as a bit of light snow (little to no accumulation expected as of now). Total precipitation should be 0.20″ or less for most with this event.

As we look ahead, the next item of possible trouble awaits for mid and late week. A cold front will push south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While this may generate a brief period of light rain transitioning to light snow, it’s what follows that’s of more interest.

Operational guidance (both the European and GFS) suggest this late week system will present a winter storm for our friends in the TN Valley, but we advise to tread with caution for now.

The reason? A strongly negative PNA.

You know the drill by now. This should lead to a more stubborn southeastern ridge and subsequent further north storm track.

Height anomalies during a (-) PNA period.

Over time, I’d suspect we’ll see just that- the models trending further north with this particular storm system.

As it is, ensemble guidance is already significantly further north than their respective operational counterparts. At the very least, another interesting case study is in front of us…

Stay tuned!

Arctic Cold, Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, GFS, PNA, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Winter Storm