Category: Winter Storm

Jan 09

Wednesday Notebook: Confidence Increases On The First Snowstorm Of The Season…

The first snowstorm of the season (and there will be many more where that came from) looms for the upcoming weekend across central Indiana- and a large portion of the Ohio Valley.

An area of low pressure will develop across the Texas panhandle Friday.  This area of low pressure will scoot across the Ozark Mountains Saturday and into the Tennessee Valley Sunday.  As this takes place, a shield of snow will grow in coverage and intensity across Missouri Friday afternoon, spreading northeast overnight Friday into Saturday.  “Forcing” will eventually weaken late Saturday night into Sunday morning and drier air will eventually filter into the area.  Before this though, a solid 12 hours of steady snow is possible for much of central Indiana Saturday.

Notes:

  • While far from set in stone on specific snowfall numbers across central Indiana, it’s safe to say plows, shovels, and snowblowers will be needed across the region. 🙂  Confidence will be high enough to issue our first call later Thursday.
  • We anticipate the onset of snow to reach west-central parts of the state around 5a before moving into the city, itself, around 6a to 7a.
  • Periods of moderate to even heavy snow will develop Saturday afternoon.  If you have travel plans, we recommend getting those out of the way early Saturday morning.  If your travels take you west to the big game this weekend, plan on leaving tomorrow of predawn Friday to avoid having to deal with slippery roads.
  • Finally, we’re not at all concerned about the high “suppressing” things this go around.  The overall pattern is much different from the “suppression depression” event we were jumping all over (and getting ridiculed by some, mind you, for betting against the snow ;-)) earlier this winter.  If anything, given the overall support for this storm system, things may trend a tick or two north over the next 24-48 hours.  Regardless, this should be an impactful event for central Indiana.

More later.  In the meantime, may we recommend your Saturday plans include a pot of chili and roaring fire to go along with Colts football?  Sounds like the perfect day to me!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-notebook-confidence-increases-on-the-first-snowstorm-of-the-season/

Jan 07

Weekend Threat: Subtle Differences Make All The Difference…

We wanted to take a quick opportunity to discuss the weekend snow threat. While certainly on the table, it’s far from etched in stone. We note the models doing their usual “herky-jerky” moves 5-6 days out. At the end of the day, there’s a notable threat present, but we prefer to watch things unfold over the next few days before beginning to get too excited.

Subtle differences between the European model (image 1) and GFS (image 2) are seen in the handling of the 500mb pattern. The GFS is quicker to phase the upper energy and leads to a more robust system.  The European isn’t nearly as excited and instead dampens the energy coming east.  These seemingly minute differences can make all the difference when it comes to the sensible weather that may (or may not) impact your weekend plans.  If the European is correct, this is a rather non-event, locally.  However, should the GFS idea be correct, this will be a widespread Ohio Valley snow event that’ll require gassing up the snow plows…

The European model weakens the energy coming east needed to fuel a more substantial storm Friday into Saturday.

The GFS model bundles the upper energy and phases things- leading to a more significant wintry threat by Saturday.

Stay tuned as we’re still a few days out from having confidence needed to begin to sound the alarm. 😉

In the longer range, tonight’s data continues to head in the direction where winter will make up for lost time to close January and head on into February.  Delayed, but not denied…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-threat-subtle-differences-make-all-the-difference/

Dec 08

Cold And Quiet; Big Winter Storm To Our Southeast…

Highlights:

  • Prolonged stretch of cold, quiet weather
  • Major winter storm for the southern Appalachians
  • Next storm delivers rain late next week

Brrrrrrr…It’s another frigid early December morning across central Indiana, but there really isn’t any “exciting” weather to discuss through the early part of next week.  High pressure will supply quiet conditions through the daytime Wednesday.  We’ll notice some mid and high level cloudiness today from a winter storm that will drop historic snow amounts across the southern Appalachians tonight into Monday.  Otherwise, plentiful sunshine can be expected with slowly moderating temperatures into the new work week.

Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday afternoon and light rain will likely arrive after dark.  Our next storm system will deliver rain and gusty winds in here late week.  Though we haven’t “taken the bait” just yet, there’s the chance of some wind-whipped wrap-around snow Friday.  We’ll give it another couple model runs before building that into the forecast…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-and-quiet-big-winter-storm-to-our-southeast/

Dec 06

Snow’s On The Lunchtime Menu; Cold, But Quiet Stretch Of Weather Ahead…

Highlights:

  • Snow arrives around lunchtime
  • Cold weekend ahead
  • Increasing sunshine

Messy Afternoon Commute For Some…The day is starting quiet, but a fast moving arctic cold front will push through the state this afternoon.  Ahead of the boundary, an expanding area of precipitation will break out late morning into the early afternoon hours.  From the city and points north, most of this should fall as wet snow.  South of the city, a mixture of rain and snow is expected.  A quick 1″ of snow is likely for areas north of Indianapolis and as temperatures fall this afternoon and evening, a slick evening commute is possible.  Allow yourself extra time.

Cold air will reinforce itself behind the front tonight and through the weekend, BUT sunshine will return!  All eyes will be off to our south as a major winter storm impacts our friends across the TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians.  If you’re one of our viewers from the east TN/ western NC mountains, get to the grocery store today and plan to hunker down.  You’ll need the yardstick to measure this one when all is said and done Monday night…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snows-on-the-lunchtime-menu-cold-but-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/

Dec 05

Snow Arrives Thursday And Looking Ahead…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-arrives-thursday-and-looking-ahead/